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汇市活跃货币的强与弱:美元恒强?日元续跌?|2025年投资市场展望②

美联储或会放缓降息步伐甚至暂停降息进程。与此同时,市场已形成特朗普关税政策即将落地实施的普遍预期。上述因素极有可能推动美元在2025年继续保持升值态势。

针对美元兑人民币和美元兑日元在2025年的走势预判,33 家被调研机构之间存在较为显著的分歧。

南方周末新金融研究中心研究员 廖浩伦 实习生 林伊洁

责任编辑:丰雨

2024年,汇率市场呈现“一币独强”格局。

2024年12月31日,美元指数收盘微涨。这一年,美元指数涨幅为7.07%,兑欧元、日元和人民币的汇率则分别涨6.29%、11.58%和2.35%。但开局与终局的趋势并非一致。2024年10月之前,正如南方周末新金融研究中心2024年初所预测,美元指数较年初有所下行。但市场对特朗普当选美国总统预期升温后,美元快速走强,欧元、日元和人民币汇率相应进入贬值通道。

作为全球主要活跃货币,2025年美元是否恒强?日元是否依旧疲弱?欧元和人民币又将如何走向?

为深度分析美元、欧元、日元和人民币四大活跃货币的未来走势及影响因素,南方周末新金融研究中心对比研究了33家中外知名投资机构或研究中心的2025年展望报告。研究发现,上述机构主流观点倾向认为,2025年,美联储或会放缓降息步伐甚至暂停降息进程。与此同时,市场已形成特朗普关税政策即将落地实施的普遍预期。上述因素极有可能推动美元在 2025年继续保持升值态势。

与之相对应,欧元兑美元汇率交易区间或将下探至1附近波动。但值得一提的是,针对美元兑人民币和美元兑日元在2025年的走势预判,33家机构之间存在较为显著的分歧。

美元走势超预期

回溯2024年全球宏观经济事件,机构此前针对欧洲央行降息时机、美联储降息节点、日本央行取消收益率曲线控制(YCC)政策和日本央行停止加息举措所做出的各项预测,均精准地在现实中得到了验证(相关预测详见《四大活跃货币将如何此升彼降?丨2024年投资市场展望③》,实际情况详见下图)。

尽管机构对全球宏观政策的预期较为精准,但主要活跃货币11月和12月的走势与机构年初的预期出现了较大偏差。究其原因,在2024年11月6日美国大选结果揭晓之后,市场对于美元持续走强形成了一致性判断。美元走强,欧元、日元和人民币随即进入贬值通道(详见下图)。与此同时,美国二三季度实际GDP年化季率终值分别为2.8%和3.1%,超过市场普遍预期的2%和2.8%。

关税对汇率影响或降低

为何特朗普当选如此影响主要活跃货币的走势?

南方周末新金融研究中心为此统计研究33家机构的报告,这些机构包含18家全球知名投行、10家证券公司、4家期货公司和1家基金公司及前述机构旗下全资子公司或研究中心。

上述机构发布的2025年宏观经济展望中均提及特朗普政府或即将落地的关税政策。南方周末新金融研究中心对比研究上述机构研报和其它权威数据发现,关税政策对汇率波动的影响极大。以2018年至2019年美国对中国实施的三轮关税措施与汇率走势为例。自2018年3月23日,美国宣布对500亿美元的中国进口商品加征25%的关税后,人民币随即进入贬值的通道(详见下图)。2019年,美元兑人民币甚至一度“破7”。

基于此,海外知名投行和研究中心普遍认为,在特朗普政府关税政策即将实施的背景下,人民币将在2025年继续贬值。其中,18家海外机构对2025年底美元兑人民币的预测均值为7.55。

较之海外机构,中资机构普遍认为本轮关税政策对人民币汇率的影响或将小于2018年。中金公司在2025年的展望报告中表示,由于2025年的宏观与政策环境和2018年有较大不同,2025年人民币汇率受关税扰动后的贬值压力或小于2018年。中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛则在2024年12月29日的报告中称,特朗普2.0只是部分兑现其关税威胁的概率不低,这将有助于缓解人民币面临的压力。特别是如果2025年中国外贸出口实绩好于预期的话,人民币有望获得支撑。

南方周末新金融研究中心对15家中资机构的研报进行统计分析后发现,大部分机构预测美元兑人民币在2025年内或将保持在7.1到7.35之间波动。

美元或持续走强

除了特朗普政府即将实施的新关税政策,美联储的货币政策亦是各机构2025年展望报告中重点关注的因素。

基于对美国经济韧性的判断,大部分机构预测美联储将在2025年放缓降息步伐。高盛集团首席经济学家Jan Hatzius领导的团队在报告中指出,美联储在降息25个基点后,未来可能会在行动上更加谨慎。

南方周末新金融研究中心通过研究还发现,大部分美联储官员和全球期货市场投资者均给出了放缓降息步伐甚至停止降息的预判。

对比2024年12月和2024年9月的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)经济预测点阵图(由美国联邦公开市场委员会发布的显示美联储官员对未来特定时间点联邦基金利率的预测图表)可以发现,在美联储12月18日宣布降息时,美联储官员对于货币政策的预期从“预计2025年降息4次,一次下调25个基点”降至“预计2025年降息2次,一次下调25个基点”(详细分析可见下图)。

与此同时,芝加哥商品交易所集团(CME)的“美联储观察(FedWatch)”工具(通过对芝加哥商品交易所交易的30天联邦基金期货价格计算美联储降息概率的工具)显示,随着2024年12月18日美联储降息落地,市场对2025年1月和3月美联储维持利率不变的预期概率分别从12月降息落地前的81.57%和40.02%上升至12月降息落地后的92.75%和57.5%。

基于对特朗普关税政策和美联储降息步伐即将放缓的预期,至少20家机构明确预判,2025年,美元汇率中枢将进一步抬升。其中,中金公司认为,2025年,特朗普的政策可能意味着更高的美元汇率中枢;高盛集团预计,美国关税政策将使美元高估值持续更长时间;巴克莱外汇策略师Skylar Montgomery Koning 亦称:随着经济数据强劲,美联储对利率预期的展望正变得更加强硬,从而支撑了美元。2025年,特朗普时代的政策预期将提升通胀,同时投资者和美联储预计降息步伐将放缓,美元有望继续走强。

欧元或将震荡下行

在全市场预期美联储放缓降息步伐的背景下,欧元将如何波动?

在研报中提及欧元趋势的机构基本都给出了一致性的欧元持续震荡或贬值预判。多数被调研机构预判,2025年底,欧元兑美元的汇率预期区间为1至1.08。而2024年12月31日,欧元兑美元汇率为1.04正处在该区间内。

高盛集团在展望报告中指出,市场对欧美政策利率路径的重新定价已对欧元产生影响,预计欧洲央行将从限制性政策转向宽松政策,而美联储政策调整幅度相对较小。这将对欧元兑美元汇率产生下行压力。

中金公司则在展望报告中表示,在市场对欧央行货币政策宽松的预期(降息的节奏和总量)略大于美联储的情形已经充分计价的基础上,2025年早期存在政策预期相对收敛的风险,即市场减少欧央行宽松定价,并增加对美联储宽松预期的定价。但随着时间的推移,特朗普政府的关税等政策或开始扰动经济预期和风险偏好。基于此,他们判断欧元2025年大概率或走出前高后低的行情。

日元预期走势存分歧

与欧元走势较为一致的预期不同,33家机构对日元汇率存有较大分歧。

南方周末新金融研究中心发现,至少5家以上的亚洲投资机构在研报中明确提及日元将在2025年升值,而非欧美投资机构基本认为日元将在该年贬值。不同区域机构之所以呈现两个极端走势的预判,是因为他们对日美利差的走势判断差异。有意思的是,在美联储降息后,部分日本投资机构却改变了当初研报中对日元2025年升值的预判。

以日本瑞穗金融集团(下称“瑞穗”)为例。该机构此前认为,由于2025年美日之间的政策息差和10年期国债收益率差收窄,日元汇率将达到自2023年初以来的最高水平。但在美联储发布最新货币政策预期后,瑞穗立即改变了对美元兑日元的预测。瑞穗策略师Masafumi Yamamoto和Masayoshi Mihara称,目前,在美国经济相对强劲和利率水平较高的背景下,美元可能会保持强势。因此,我们上调了对美元的预测。三井住友保险市场策略师Tsukasa Sugiura亦称,由于美联储的极端鹰派和日本央行的极端鸽派,我们改变了对前景的看法。现在看来,日本央行1月份加息的可能性不大了。

校对:星歌

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Hacker stole unreleased Coldplay and Rexha tracks

PA Media  Coldplay's Chris Martin performing on stage at Wembley Stadium, north London, in 2022. He has short brown hair and stubble and is holding the microphone up to his mouth with his left hand. His right hand is outstretched. He is wearing a reddish t-shirtPA Media
Coldplay were the headline act at Radio 1's Big Weekend, which was held in Luton in the summer

A cyber hacker has pleaded guilty to stealing unreleased music from artists including British rock band Coldplay and US singer-songwriters Upsahl and Melanie Martinez.

Skylar Dalziel made about £42,000 by selling the tracks online, according to City of London Police.

Prosecutor Richard Partridge said she "selfishly used their music to make money for herself by selling it on the dark web".

The 22-year-old, of Winchester Gardens in Luton, admitted 11 copyright offences at Luton Crown Court and was sentenced to 21 months imprisonment, suspended for 24 months.

Getty Images UPSAHL performing July 31, 2024 in Miami Beach, Florida. Shehas pulled back reddish hair and is wearing a grey and blue jacket, possibly leather. She is seated and playing a guitar, looking slightly over to her right, with a microphone on a stand in front of herGetty Images
The thefts came to light when Sony Music Entertainment discovered that a cloud account owned by Upsahl had been compromised

Det Con Daryl Fryatt, from the force's Police Intellectual Property Crime Unit, said: "Stealing copyrighted material for your own financial gain is illegal.

"It jeopardises the work of artists and the livelihoods of the people who work with them to create and release their music."

The thefts came to light when Sony Music Entertainment discovered a cloud account owned by Upsahl had been compromised and reported it to the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI) in June 2021.

Forty unreleased tracks had been extracted and were being sold online, police said.

The IFPI and the Recording Industry Association of America identified an account on an online forum selling unreleased music from various artists and that account was linked to Dalziel.

Getty Images Melanie Martinez perform in 2024 in Milan, Italy. She has her arms outstretched with her microphone held in her right hand and is looking up and smiling. She is wearing a pink dress, with short white puffed sleevesGetty Images
Melanie Martinez was among the artists whose work was also hacked

Officers said they arrested Dalziel on 9 January 2023 and seized three drives which contained 291,941 music tracks.

They also found a spreadsheet which showed she had sold tracks to customers and her PayPal and bank accounts revealed she had received £42,049 from April 2021 to January 2023.

Some of this money was transferred to bank accounts in the US and City of London Police said it was working with Homeland Security Investigations to identify the people linked to the accounts.

Dalziel pleaded guilty to 11 counts of making for sale an article without licence of the copyright's owner, one count of transferring criminal property and three counts of acquiring/using/possessing criminal property.

She was also sentenced to 180 hours of unpaid work.

Det Con Fryatt said the sentencing "sends a clear message that we have the ability and tools to locate cyber criminals and hold them to account for their actions".

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One-punch-killer thought victim had made fun of partner at pub karaoke

South Wales Police Christopher Cooper mugshot. He has grey short hair. South Wales Police
Christopher Cooper had been boasting about the attack taking a single punch, the court heard

A "cowardly" attacker who murdered a 64-year-old man with a single punch outside a pub has been jailed for life with a minimum term of 16 years.

Christopher Cooper, 39, from the Maritime Quarter in Swansea, punched Kelvin Evans, from Gorseinon, Swansea, once to the head.

The judge at Swansea Crown Court told Cooper Mr Evans's life was "senselessly and cruelly extinguished", and he had shown no remorse about the attack from behind outside The Station Hotel in Gorseinon, even boasting about the attack only taking one punch.

Mr Evans's 92-year-old mother Maureen said she looked at her son's picture every morning and night, and in tears told the court of her sadness.

Family Photo Kelvin Evans, pictured smiling and wearing a beige brimmed hat. He has a checked jacket on. Family Photo
Kelvin Evans's family say he was a "wonderful, loving, funny son, brother, uncle and friend"

Cooper and his partner Catherine Francis were at the pub - known locally as "The Gyp" - as were Mr Evans and his partner.

The judge said a perceived slight seemed to have been the trigger for the attack. Cooper had waited for Mr Evans to leave before hitting him.

After the attack in May the victim was immediately knocked unconscious and was taken to hospital, but his condition deteriorated, and he died a month later.

The judge told Cooper it was "a cowardly punch... totally unexpected" and it "would result in real serious injury" when the head would hit a hard surface.

Mr Evans was described by family as a kind man who would help anyone. He loved trips in his camper van Bella, often taking loved ones for days out.

CPS Mugshot of Catherine Francis, who has long dark hair and is wearing a grey top CPS
The Crown Prosecution Service said after the hearing that Catherine Francis was aware of the assault but did not call police

Nephew Mark Jones said: "To lose him to such a cowardly attack has been nothing short of devastating.'"

He said Cooper and Francis' lies were "disrespectful and disturbing".

Cooper had previously admitted manslaughter but denied murder.

Judge Walters said Francis had lied throughout her evidence and shown no remorse.

She was previously convicted of assisting an offender and was sentenced to two years.

The Crown Prosecution Service said after the hearing that Francis was aware of the assault but did not call police.

Analysis of her phone showed she searched for hotels after the attack, and they were both arrested the next day at a service station.

Apple's AI notification falsely claims Littler has already won world darts final

Getty Images Luke Littler pumping his fist in celebration during the semi-finalGetty Images
Luke Littler does not play in the PDC World Championship final until Friday evening

A news summary from Apple has falsely claimed darts player Luke Littler won the PDC World Championship - before he has even played in the final.

On Friday morning, an iPhone notification based on a news story of Littler winning the semi-final of the PDC World Championship falsely made it appear that the BBC was reporting he had won the whole event.

The BBC previously complained to Apple when the feature generated a false headline about a high-profile alleged murder in the US.

Apple has been contacted for comment.

"It is essential that Apple fixes this problem urgently - as this has happened multiple times," said a BBC spokesperson.

"As the most trusted news media organisation in the world, it is crucial that audiences can trust any information or journalism published in our name and that includes notifications."

Littler, 18, has generated huge excitement in the darts world on his way to the final, which takes place on Friday evening.

Screenshot of iPhone notification, which reads: "Luke Littler won PDC World Championship; South Korean investigators call off arrest attempt; flu cases rising."

Even though the notification appears to be directly from the BBC, it is in fact Apple Intelligence summarising three much longer headlines.

The other two stories in the summary, about the South Korean president and flu cases, were accurately summarised.

Apple Intelligence, which launched in the UK in December 2024, is intended to give users a simple round-up of all the alerts they have missed.

But the firm has run into some trouble since the feature launched, with inaccurate summaries of news stories and other notifications.

It prompted the journalist body Reporters Without Borders (also known as RSF) to call on Apple to axe its AI-powered summaries of news stories.

"The automated production of false information attributed to a media outlet is a blow to the outlet's credibility," said Vincent Berthier, the head of RSF's technology and journalism desk, in December.

He added it was "a danger to the public's right to reliable information on current affairs."

A screenshot of the three original notifications from the BBC News app, with the original headlines for each news story visible.

The latest notification glitch on Littler's semi-final win was received by a BBC News employee.

It is likely that most people's AI-generated summaries would be unique as different combinations of notifications are summarised depending on the device being used and the alerts coming through.

Apple Intelligence is only available on certain iPhones - those using the iOS 18.1 system version or later on recent devices (all iPhone 16 phones, the 15 Pro, and the 15 Pro Max). It is also available on some iPads and Macs.

The grouped notifications are marked with a specific icon, and users can report any concerns they have on a notification summary.

Apple has not outlined how many reports it has received.

Biden blocks Japan's Nippon Steel from buying US Steel

Getty Images U.S. Steel's Clairton Coke Works rests along the Monongahela River in ClairtonGetty Images

US President Joe Biden has formally blocked the takeover of US Steel by a bigger Japanese company, saying foreign ownership could pose risks for national security.

The controversial decision comes a year after Nippon Steel first announced the $14.9bn (£12bn) deal, describing it as a lifeline for its smaller Pennsylvania-based rival.

But the transaction soon ran into political trouble, after leaders of the United Steelworkers union loudly opposed the deal, bringing political pressure to bear in a key state during the 2024 presidential election.

Biden decided to scrap the deal despite concerns by some advisors that it could damage Washington's relations with Tokyo, a key ally.

BBC News has contacted Nippon Steel and US Steel for comment.

Nippon Steel has previously denied that it planned to reduce production or cut jobs, while US Steel had warned that it might have to close plants without the investment that would come with a new owner.

Those concerns had been echoed by some workers and local politicians.

Other business groups said they feared rejecting the transaction would chill the climate for international investment in the US.

But Biden has voiced longstanding opposition to the deal. The transaction has also been criticised by President-elect Donald Trump and the incoming vice-president, JD Vance.

A US government panel charged with reviewing the deal for national security risks failed to reach a consensus by late December, leaving the decision to Biden, who was required to act within a 15-day deadline.

In his announcement on Friday he said maintaining US ownership was important to keeping the US steel industry and it supply chains strong.

"As I have said many times, steel production - and the steel workers who produce it - are the backbone of our nation," he said.

"That is because steel powers our country: our infrastructure, our auto industry, and our defense industrial base. Without domestic steel production and domestic steel workers, our nation is less strong and less secure."

Nippon Steel and US Steel have previously suggested they may pursue legal action against the government if the deal did not happen.

Prof Stephen Nagy, of the Department of Politics International Studies at the International Christian University in Tokyo, said this was a "political" decision, noting that the Biden administration from its start promised a "foreign policy for the middle class".

"This was a direct response and continuation of the Trump MAGA agenda of Making America Great Again," he said.

"The Biden administration couldn't appear weak on foreign businesses, whether it's an ally or adversary."

Does Ally Pally immortality await Luke Littler in World Darts Championship final?

Teenager Littler aims for Ally Pally immortality

Luke Littler walks through crowdsImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Littler has become darts' biggest draw since making his PDC World Championship debut last year

In one home video clip, the boy throwing the darts is wearing a nappy.

In another, a highchair leans against the wall as he slams them home.

In a third, at an age where most children can barely conceive of double digits, the toddler wanders to the camera and gleefully shouts "one hundred and eighty".

The height of the board changes, the oche edges back, magnet tips switch to tungsten, but the easy action of Luke Littler, which will grace tonight's World Championship final, is a constant.

In football, 'Project Mbappe' has been used to describe the perfect storm conditions that propelled football star Kylian Mbappe from the Paris suburbs to the brink of greatness while he was still a teenager.

Littler is the first prodigy whose total arrows immersion has been documented in real time. His steps have followed a pre-plotted route to the Alexandra Palace stage since he first started walking.

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Media caption,

Watch: Luke Littler plays darts as a toddler in home video footage

Last year, aged just 16, he arrived.

He came into the World Championships as a 66-1 debutant, carved his way through the draw, accumulating followers, raising decibels and spilling out into the mainstream.

It took the world number one - Luke Humphries – to halt the hype train, beating Littler in the final at the cavernous north London venue.

But it was Littler on the chat show sofas alongside Hollywood stars, Littler on the front of kids' darts sets under the Christmas tree, Littler streaking through the earth's upper atmosphere as part of a gaming console advert.

Online, he was searched for more than the King or the Prime Minister.

On television, last year's PDC final was the most-watched sports event, outside football, in Sky Sports' 34-year history., external

Humphries, who won it, has joked about people discovering mid-conversation with him that they are talking to the "wrong Luke".

For Littler things have kept going right.

A boy born to the board, he has been relentless and ruthless, somehow finding the calm at the centre of the storm around him.

His game continued down those familiar childhood grooves, undisturbed by the commotion and celebrity.

The backdrop may be a fancy-dress cast of thousands, but Littler kept chucking as easy as the kid back in his Warrington living room.

A fortnight after his final defeat, he claimed his first televised nine-dart finish. He took revenge on Humphries in the Premier League Darts final in May. In total, he won 10 titles in 2024, rising to fourth in the world.

However, this visit to Ally Pally has been different.

Perhaps it is the circularity of it.

Twelve months ago, he was an unknown. This time, the attention is immediate, and the pressure is inescapable. Now, the upsets are his to suffer, rather than to inflict.

He is approaching the ceiling, bumping up against the biggest names, battling for the biggest prize, as an equal rather than a newcomer.

So soon into his career, he is entering a new era. And the air is different up here.

"I have never felt anything like that," he said after winning the opening match of his campaign against Ryan Meikle.

Admitting to nerves during the match, he said: "It is probably the biggest time it's hit me. Coming into it I was fine, but as soon as [referee] George Noble said 'game on', I couldn't throw them.

"It has been a lot to deal with."

It was, Littler said, "the worst game I have played". That he clocked a tournament record three-dart average of 140.91 in an electrifying, 31-dart, three-leg, fourth set during it shows his sky-high standards.

Still, Littler, choking up, had to cut short his on-stage interview, seeking out his family for a hug.

Luke Littler hugs his familyImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Littler sought out his family in the crowd after a misfiring performance in his world championship opener against Ryan Meikle

'The Nuke' wasn't in meltdown, but neither was he at his best.

His check-out accuracy was off. Doubles were elusive. He wobbled in the last 16, edging past unseeded Ryan Joyce 4-3.

But, when it has mattered, Littler plucked precision from the quiver.

Worryingly for the opposition, he has started to find his happy place too.

"I'll be honest, no nerves," he said after his quarter-final victory, a 5-2 walloping of Nathan Aspinall.

"I'm playing with absolute confidence, with freedom."

Stephen Bunting was barely a semi-final speedbump for Littler's steamrolling momentum. He averaged 105.48, his highest of this year's competition, in a 6-1 thrashing of the world number five.

Now, Michael van Gerwen stands between Littler and dart's biggest prize, complete with a £500,000 pay day.

The Dutchman is the youngest PDC world champion to date, having won the title as a 24-year-old in 2014.

That period was defined by the Van Gerwen's titanic, torch-passing tussles with Phil Taylor, a rivalry that super-charged darts' rise and saw him claim three world titles.

Littler is the beneficiary, but has added another story to the edifice.

He is already, by some distance, the best-known darts player in the world. Will he now be the best player?

Related topics

西藏水电工程引争议 印度敦促中国保障下游利益

印度外交部本周五表示,新德里已向北京表达了对中国计划在西藏雅鲁藏布江上游修建水电站的关切。雅鲁藏布江在流入印度后还流向孟加拉国,尽管中国官方宣称该水电项目不会对环境或下游水资源造成危害,但位处下游的印度和孟加拉等国仍对此感到担忧。

综合国际媒体报道,印度外交部发言人兰迪尔·贾伊斯瓦尔(Randhir Jaiswal)1月3日在例行记者会上表示,印度已敦促中方确保其在雅鲁藏布江上游地区的活动不损害布拉马普特拉河(雅鲁藏布江流入印度后的称谓)下游国家的利益。印方将继续密切监测局势,并在必要时采取措施,保护自身利益。他强调,相关项目的建设应保持透明,并与下游国家进行充分磋商。

法新社披露,西藏上述水电站项目在上个月获得中国政府批准,该项目与北京的碳中和目标以及西藏地区的经济发展目标高度关联。一旦建成后,该项目预计年发电量将达3000亿千瓦,并将成为全球最大的此类工程。虽然中国官方声称该项目能开发清洁能源、应对气候变化,同时不会对下游造成负面影响,但除了下游国家对该项目高度关切外,环保人士在过去也曾警告,此类大型工程可能对生态敏感的青藏高原造成不可逆转的冲击。

据路透社报道,贾伊斯瓦尔同时还在记者会上提到,印度近期针对中国设立两个新县的举措向北京提出了“严正抗议”,其中一个县涵盖了印度声称拥有主权的争议地区。贾伊斯瓦尔强调,中方此举既不会改变印度对该地区主权的长期立场,也不会为中国对该地的非法主张提供任何合法性。

中印两国在喜马拉雅山附近的边境问题上长期存在紧张关系。不过,双方于去年10月就对峙点撤军达成共识,缓解了冲突。上个月,两国官员在过去5年来首次举行正式会谈,并同意采取小幅措施以改善双边关系。

责编:何平 网编:洪伟

© 法新社图片

在西藏修建的一座水电站

回应中国黑客攻击 美国制裁北京一网络安全公司

1月3日,美国国务院发布新闻稿宣布,将对位于北京的网络安全公司永信至诚科技集团实施制裁。原因是该公司与中国国家安全部存在关联,并多次参与针对美国的黑客攻击活动。

美国国务院指出,永信至诚雇佣的黑客组织被外界称为“亚麻台风”(Flax Typhoon)。该组织在中国政府的指挥下,针对美国及其他国家的关键基础设施发动网络攻击,其目标包括外国企业、大学、政府机构、电信供应商以及媒体机构等。去年9月,美国司法部经法院授权采取行动,成功摧毁了由永信至诚渗透并控制的一个由全球超过20万台设备组成的僵尸网络。

新闻稿强调,美国将继续致力于防御来自中国的网络威胁,并采取一切可用手段,以保护美国的关键基础设施和人民免受不负责任的网络攻击侵害。

责编:何平;网编:伍檫愙

© 路透社

永信至诚雇佣的黑客组织被外界称为“亚麻台风”(Flax Typhoon)

US top doctor calls for cancer warnings on alcohol

Getty Images Two glasses of red wineGetty Images

America's top doctor has called for risk warnings on alcoholic beverages, similar to the labels on cigarettes, following new research that links the drinks to seven types of cancer.

The advisory from US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy says the "majority of Americans are unaware of this risk" that leads to about 100,000 cases of cancer and 20,000 deaths annually in the US.

It would require an act of Congress to change the existing warning labels, which have not been updated since 1988.

Mr Murthy has also called for reassessing recommended limits for alcohol consumption and boosting education efforts regarding alcoholic drinks and cancer.

The Surgeon General, who is the leading spokesperson on matters of public health in the federal government, said that alcohol was the third most common preventable cause of cancer after tobacco and obesity.

"The direct link between alcohol consumption and cancer risk is well-established for at least seven types of cancer ...regardless of the type of alcohol (e.g., beer, wine, and spirits) that is consumed," Mr Murthy said in a statement.

This includes increased risk of throat, liver, throat, oesophageal, mouth, larynx and colon cancers.

The new report recommends health care providers should encourage alcohol screening and treatment referrals as needed, and efforts to increase general awareness should be expanded.

The warning labels are currently required to state that women who are pregnant should not drink alcohol due to birth defect risks. It also must state that "consumption of alcoholic beverages impairs your ability to drive a car or operate machinery, and may cause health problems".

Share prices of US-listed alcoholic beverage companies - including Diageo, the world's biggest spirits manufacturer - fell by up to 4% following the announcement.

Biden blocks Japan's Nippon Steel from buying US Steel

Getty Images U.S. Steel's Clairton Coke Works rests along the Monongahela River in ClairtonGetty Images

US President Joe Biden has formally blocked the takeover of US Steel by a bigger Japanese company, saying foreign ownership could pose risks for national security.

The controversial decision comes a year after Nippon Steel first announced the $14.9bn (£12bn) deal, describing it as a lifeline for its smaller Pennsylvania-based rival.

But the transaction soon ran into political trouble, after leaders of the United Steelworkers union loudly opposed the deal, bringing political pressure to bear in a key state during the 2024 presidential election.

Biden decided to scrap the deal despite concerns by some advisors that it could damage Washington's relations with Tokyo, a key ally.

BBC News has contacted Nippon Steel and US Steel for comment.

Nippon Steel has previously denied that it planned to reduce production or cut jobs, while US Steel had warned that it might have to close plants without the investment that would come with a new owner.

Those concerns had been echoed by some workers and local politicians.

Other business groups said they feared rejecting the transaction would chill the climate for international investment in the US.

But Biden has voiced longstanding opposition to the deal. The transaction has also been criticised by President-elect Donald Trump and the incoming vice-president, JD Vance.

A US government panel charged with reviewing the deal for national security risks failed to reach a consensus by late December, leaving the decision to Biden, who was required to act within a 15-day deadline.

In his announcement on Friday he said maintaining US ownership was important to keeping the US steel industry and it supply chains strong.

"As I have said many times, steel production - and the steel workers who produce it - are the backbone of our nation," he said.

"That is because steel powers our country: our infrastructure, our auto industry, and our defense industrial base. Without domestic steel production and domestic steel workers, our nation is less strong and less secure."

Nippon Steel and US Steel have previously suggested they may pursue legal action against the government if the deal did not happen.

Prof Stephen Nagy, of the Department of Politics International Studies at the International Christian University in Tokyo, said this was a "political" decision, noting that the Biden administration from its start promised a "foreign policy for the middle class".

"This was a direct response and continuation of the Trump MAGA agenda of Making America Great Again," he said.

"The Biden administration couldn't appear weak on foreign businesses, whether it's an ally or adversary."

2024, 我借 AI 之力, 打造了上线首月用户破万的产品

ChristopherWu:

全职创业已过了很长时间, 终于在 2024 年, 我们造出了值得骄傲的产品 --- hika, 一个月不到已经过万用户, 收获无数细腻的好评, 详情可看: 我 All In AI 创业一年后, 成绩如何?

img

hika 是什么?

HIKA 是一款免费的知识获取引擎,为你探索世界提供全新的方式与思路,你提出问题,HIKA 会实时搜索网络,深度思考并给出答案 HIKA 有什么:

  • 实时搜索:一个有着全网实时信息+自带知识库的答案引擎,并提供关键参考来源
  • 图文并茂:不仅有文字,HIKA 还提供多种图表分析,并直观展现重点概念间的关系
    • 快速解读全局知识点,一图胜千言
  • 深入研究:可对段落进行深入解读,并提供对其包含的关键点追问
    • 更贴合你的搜索习惯,哪里不会点哪里 ai 搜索

AI 驱动的 Hika

创业以来, 除了值得信赖, 非常靠谱的团队外(这个以后有机会再详细描述), 2024 年 最让我震撼的就是 AI.

Hika 采用了 AI 与人工协作的方式开发, 减轻了大部分枯燥的代码劳动, 但数据结构, 架构, debug, 压测等等还是要我们上; 运营适配各个国家不同语言的帖子都是 AI 写的, 很多细节是我跟 AI 商讨确认对齐的

AI 让 hika 整个团队的效率提升了不止一倍, 用一个比喻就是, AI 就是你自身的杠杆, 你水平越高, 这个杠杆越能提升你的效率

img

当然 Hika 也完成了自举, 我们平常使用 Hika 来提升开发 Hika 的效率. 这种深度融合 AI 的开发模式不仅大大提高了我们的工作效率,也让 HIKA 成为了一个真正由 AI 驱动的产品。

热心的人们

最让我感慨的是沿途帮助过我们的热心人.

hika 上线后, 由于团队里没有丰富运营经验的小伙伴, 我先顶上了; 那要做运营, 都是小账号, 没有万粉怎么做呢? 我脸皮厚, 也对 hika 的品质有信心, 除了平常发帖子宣传外, 就是逐个找一些活跃的小 v 大 v, 邀请他们试用 hika, 可以的话宣传一下

当然没有回复或者后续冷拒绝的人不少, 但亲自试用, 并热情地无偿转发 hika 的同样很多, 因此 hika 收获了不少用户

img

另外就是到 product hunt 上发布 hika 了, 由于其潜规则颇多, 我们已经是放到最后, 学习了挺多才发布了, 期间也踩了不少坑; 值得高兴的是, 不少同是运营都人主动加上我, 询问情况, 给我介绍起来上面的一些坑. 比如没有被 featured, 拿票拿到第一也没用; 一般在上面性价比最高的是拿到周榜, 但一般需要"买票" 等等. 虽然 hika 最后没有被 featured, 但学到这么多东西已经足够. 何况最后还是有外媒开始报道 hika, 我们收获了更多海外用户

img

还有创业的一些小伙伴, 主动热情地介绍了跟 VC 聊天时怎么聊, 什么 VC 合适我们团队, BP 怎么写, 融资怎么考虑; 还有我的朋友 hongqian, 分享了对商业模式有启发的书籍, 一直启发我从这方面来思考, 验证关键猜想(奈何这个转向实在太难..)

以及看到下面出海的这篇文章写得不错, 便加上了作者微信, 请教了一番, 深刻学习到运营真是很困难的事情

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万字长文:“为什么我的产品在泰国次留 40%,但在美国只有 25%?”(完全版)

欢迎大家 2025 年继续使用 hika

Hika 帮助你解决了哪些问题?又有哪些需求还未满足?

我们非常重视每一位用户的反馈,并会认真考虑你的建议,期待你的分享!🤗

hika 可以通过谷歌搜索 hika ai 或者输入网址 hika.fyi 使用, 也可以点击原文使用

Debian, 中文文件名乱码,怎么整

kevinyuandlp:

从 Youtube 下载视频:

debian@iZj6cctjpq1994jyxsr2kaZ:~/ytb$ yt-dlp 'https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWmuy5Ne4rU'
[youtube] Extracting URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWmuy5Ne4rU
[youtube] nWmuy5Ne4rU: Downloading webpage
[youtube] nWmuy5Ne4rU: Downloading ios player API JSON
[youtube] nWmuy5Ne4rU: Downloading mweb player API JSON
[youtube] nWmuy5Ne4rU: Downloading m3u8 information
[info] nWmuy5Ne4rU: Downloading 1 format(s): 135+251
[download] Destination: 02 立方和公式及立方差公式 先修課 高中數學 [nWmuy5Ne4rU].f135.mp4
[download] 100% of 6.33MiB in 00:00:00 at 7.00MiB/s
[download] Destination: 02 立方和公式及立方差公式 先修課 高中數學 [nWmuy5Ne4rU].f251.webm
[download] 100% of 2.53MiB in 00:00:00 at 3.47MiB/s
[Merger] Merging formats into "02 立方和公式及立方差公式 先修課 高中數學 [nWmuy5Ne4rU].mkv"
debian@iZj6cctjpq1994jyxsr2kaZ:~/ytb$ ls
'02 '$'\347\253\213\346\226\271\345\222\214\345\205\254\345\274\217\345\217\212\347\253\213\346\226\271\345\267\256\345\205\254\345\274\217'' '$'\345\205\210\344\277\256\350\252\262'' '$'\351\253\230\344\270\255\346\225\270\345\255\270'' [nWmuy5Ne4rU].mkv'
1.txt

下载完的文件名乱码

测试建一个文件,在里面输入中文,是可以正常显示
debian@iZj6cctjpq1994jyxsr2kaZ:~$ cat 1.txt
测试

locale 的相关信息如下:

locale: Cannot set LC_CTYPE to default locale: No such file or directory
locale: Cannot set LC_ALL to default locale: No such file or directory
LANG=C.UTF-8
LANGUAGE=
LC_CTYPE=UTF-8
LC_NUMERIC="C.UTF-8"
LC_TIME="C.UTF-8"
LC_COLLATE="C.UTF-8"
LC_MONETARY="C.UTF-8"
LC_MESSAGES="C.UTF-8"
LC_PAPER="C.UTF-8"
LC_NAME="C.UTF-8"
LC_ADDRESS="C.UTF-8"
LC_TELEPHONE="C.UTF-8"
LC_MEASUREMENT="C.UTF-8"
LC_IDENTIFICATION="C.UTF-8"
LC_ALL=

Windows 上音频,鼠标遇到问题后,有没有像 macOS 一样有重启对应服务的办法?

x4storm: 之前 Windows 11 上音频播放出问题,出现滞后,卡顿,找了一圈,最终是重启解决。
现在在运行一个 ollama 推理的时候鼠标突然动不了,在网上找了一圈也没看到靠谱的,在不重启的情况下解决的办法。

之前在 Mac 上遇到音频相关的问题,都是 kill 掉某个服务,重启该服务就解决了,windows 上非得要重启系统。
感觉都不想在 windows 上进行开发和工作了。

有大佬解释一下 deepseek 和 ChatGPT 的关系吗?

fancy2020:

最近看到挺多 deepseek 的新闻,好奇试了一下。
问了几个问题(英文)同时丢给 ChatGPT 和 deepseek ,发现 deepseek 的结果和 ChatGPT 的极其相似。
内容结构基本上是一摸一样的,就是替换了一些单词。

在网上也看到有人问 deepseek 是什么 model ,它回答是 ChatGPT 的。

对 AI 大模型的技术没什么了解,所以好奇问一下为什么会这样?

广州一站点开出超 5 亿大奖,福彩中心:中奖者已兑奖

dcy7287: 1 月 3 日,广州市福利彩票发行中心公告,1 月 2 日,中国福利彩票双色球游戏第 2025001 期开奖,当期广州市中出一等奖的彩票共 3 张,其中 2 张均为 100 元 50 倍的单式票,1 张为 32 元的蓝球全包复式票,3 张中奖彩票共计中得 101 注一等奖和 15 注二等奖,奖金合计人民币 531000605 元。彩票中奖者已在我中心完成兑奖,缴纳个人所得税人民币 106200121 元。

iTerm2 用户请升级

19x0: 准备换回原生终端了~

https://iterm2.com/downloads/stable/iTerm2-3_5_11.changelog

You may be affected if you used the SSH
integration feature in any of the following
versions:

* 3.5.6
* 3.5.7
* 3.5.8
* 3.5.9
* 3.5.10
* Any beta versions of 3.5.6 and later.

What is the issue?
------------------
A bug in the SSH integration feature caused input
and output to be logged to a file on the remote
host. This file, /tmp/framer.txt, may be readable
by other users on the remote host.

程序要兼容第三方文件格式,应该把第三方格式每个放一个 namespace,还是用一个功能一个 namespace,不同格式实现都放里面好,大型开源项目一般是怎么做的?

drymonfidelia: 例如
App.WordDocument.Consts
App.WordDocument.Types
App.WordDocument.Export
App.WordDocument.Validation

App.Consts.WordDocument
App.Types.WordDocument
App.Export.WordDocument
App.Validation.WordDocument
哪种好,方便扩展?

Apple Watch Ultra 相比无印版本有多耐用?

yousaisama: 如题,自从 Apple Watch Series 7 之后就没再换过智能手表,但是经过长期的裸奔使用,它已经布满划痕,令人不忍直视了。
趁着新年,我想换一块新的手表,目前看中了 Apple Watch Ultra 2024 ,既然苹果宣称其坚固耐用,我想问一下用过它及上代产品的 v 友们,在没有大量极限使用场景的情况下,Apple Watch Ultra 是否能在三到五年之后依然保持比较良好的状态呢?

有没人知道 appletv 为什么重置后只有默认的几个 app?

kijnife4: 这是咸鱼买来的二手六代 appletv ,原来有 tv+,音乐之类的自带 app ,但是重置后这些应该自带 app 全没了,登录上去就只有设置 搜索 应用商店 facetime 这四个 app ,而且全程登录的是美区 id ,也试过切换账号都没用,甚至软路由设置全局代理都不行,后续也重置过很多次了,会不会是什么特殊渠道设备?

搞了一台专门跑 Windows XP 的电脑

Livid:

机器本体是 Precision T3500 ,然后从二手店淘到了 Quadro 4000 和一个 PS/2 接口的带小红点的 IBM M13 键盘。

很多小时候记忆中的游戏,能在 2024/2025 年的时候看到满血运行的状态,还是满开心的。

才知道,移动的高频骚扰电话拦截业务,会消耗移动流量。

JerryLee13: 移动的高频骚扰电话拦截业务,会消耗移动流量,这到底是个怎么样的逻辑呢?

我是怎么发现这个情况的呢?

前提:主卡是联通卡,副卡是移动卡,蜂窝数据是主卡,事发时一直都是连接 WIFI 。移动卡是从化 0 月租的卡,套餐内是没有流量和通话时长的(套餐外流量按照 0.29 元/MB 收费,不足 30 元按实收取,每达 30 元即自动赠送 921MB 国内通用流量)

经过:今天下午收到移动短信说,成功拦截了一通境外电话。隔一分钟后,收到流量超额扣费的信息。疑惑?遂电话客服咨询,确认是高频骚扰电话拦截,使用了流量。再问也没问出个所以然来。

结果:要求退费,取消高频骚扰电话拦截业务,关闭上网服务。
❌