© Nic Antaya for The New York Times
（德国之声中文网）中共当局近期任命了一批70后官员，其中以浙江代省长刘捷最为引人注目。刘出生于1970年1月，江苏丹阳人，是第二十届中央候补委员，钢铁官员出身，大学毕业后在湖南湘潭钢铁公司工作，做到公司总经理，2008年由商转仕，出任湖南商务厅厅长。3年后跨省到江西新余做市长，后任江西省委秘书长，再到贵州任职，在出任浙江代省长前，为杭州市委书记、浙江省委常委。
刘是继金融监管总局局长李云泽之后第二位官至省部级的中候补委员。李也是位70后。比刘稍早前，当局也任命了另一位二十届中候补委员关志鸥为自然资源部党组书记，正部级，不过，关是位“准70后”，1969年12月出生，比刘大一个月。70后任正部级的还有共青团第一书记阿东，他是二十届中央委员，政治资历比这三位要高点。如果把关算上，70后正省部级官员目前一共有四人。
当局日前也任命了六名70后为地方政府的副省级干部。据不完全统计，70后副省级官员现有30多人。可见当局正在有计划地将一批70后官员安排在省级领导岗位锻炼，这些70后高官成为中共继50、60后的第三梯队干部管治队伍。其中，前述四位最受瞩目，他们中有人可能未来会晋升中央领导层。
普京送上“六六大顺”：普京已经给习近平发去了７０岁大寿贺电。这也不是他第一次给习近平庆生。2019年6月15日，习近平和普京在塔吉克斯坦首都杜尚别举行会晤，收到了这位俄罗斯总统送上的生日礼物：除了满满一箱俄罗斯特色冰淇淋之外，普京还安排准备了写着“六六大顺”的生日蛋糕——因为这一天，应该是习近平66周岁生日。
不公开的领导人生日：其实中国官方资料并未指明习近平的生日是哪一天。6月15日这个日期，主要是透过一些其它渠道被公众侧面得知。而百度百科以及官方媒体公布的“习近平同志简历”都只是写的“1953年6月生”。有中国媒体引述专家分析指出，不公开领导人具体生日可能是为了“防止搞个人崇拜”。
被“外人”曝光的生日：这种官方简历只写月份的做法不仅限于国家主席，比如前总理李克强的公开资料上也只写了“1955年7月生”，而他的生日则是被印度总理莫迪“透出去”的。2015年7月1日，莫迪在其新浪微博账号上发帖祝他“生日快乐”，还贴出了一张之前两个人在北京的合影自拍（如图）。
莫迪曾与习近平互祝生日快乐：这位印度总理还在2015年9月17日自己生日那天发微博“感谢习近平主席对我的生日祝福”；次年6月15日，莫迪又发了一条祝福习近平生日的微博，引发众多网友转发点赞。不过随着近两年中印之间因为边界冲突而关系紧张，莫迪总理是否还会向中国领导人送出生日祝福，就不得而知了。
还有哪些领导人曾为习近平庆生？：人民日报海外版微信公众号《学习小组》的信息还显示，习近平的农历生日应该是在五月初五端午节。2010年6月16日，时任国家副主席的习近平在老挝访问，东道主也为他准备了生日蛋糕，而那一天刚好就是端午节。（图为2017年习近平和夫人彭丽媛访问老挝）
金正恩曾赠送花篮：据朝鲜媒体报道，2013年6月15日，朝鲜领导人金正恩向习近平致生日贺函送花篮，“向敬爱的习近平同志致以最热烈的祝贺和亲切的同志问候”。（图为2019年6月习近平与夫人彭丽媛到访平壤，金正恩和夫人李雪主接待）
梅西访华也赶上了庆生？：2023年6月15日，阿根廷国家队与澳大利亚队在北京工体举行友谊赛，这也是足球巨星梅西此次访华行程中的“重头戏”之一。有媒体猜测，这场友谊赛选择在这一天举行并非巧合，而是为了向作为足球迷的习近平送出“生日礼”。
习近平的“足球大国梦”：不管是巧合还是特意的安排，习近平热爱足球这件事早就不是什么秘密，他也一直希望中国足球能够跻身世界强队之列。然而不管是斥巨资收购欧洲足球队的股份，还是花天价引进“外援”，似乎都未能提高中国足球在国际上的地位。大位传给女婿？
习近平今年71岁，这已经是他的第三任了。无论他再做一任，还是终身执政，按道理，到第四任该考虑接班人问题，谁是他的接班人届时理当有眉目了。但现在在中共政治局的19名委员里，还看不出哪个会是他中意的接班人。正因为没有选定接班人，今年以来流传一个说法，他要培养自己的女婿作为接班人，但谁是他的女婿外界并不知道。把大位传给女婿虽有“家天下”之嫌，可按中共选人用人标准，如若女婿才德兼备，倒也和共产党的接班人制度不冲突，因为中共号称选显任能，举贤不避亲，都是共产党的干部，只要德行好，能力亦突出（这条是软标准），没有说女婿就不能做接班人的。不过，假如习真有此打算，他的女婿现在应该也官至副省部级。
目前中共掌控国家权力和政局的主体，是50后和60后高官。49年之前的所谓“建国”干部基本上退出了历史舞台。政治局常委除丁薛祥外，都是50后，政治局委员50后和60后都有。在省部级和副省部级这层，60后占主导，厅局级则以70后为主。由这个年龄层次看，再过5年，70后在副省部级官员中会逐渐成主体，再过10年，则在省部级官员中占主角。故假如习在干完第三任后，还干两届10年，那时他已84岁，差不多要交权了，但不太可能交到60后身上，因为60后的最少年龄也已70多岁了，70后届时年龄最大的也就67岁，接他的班正合适。这样看来，前面提到的四位70后正省部级干部，如果不考虑其他因素，其中有一位恐怕是要成为接班人的。
要有地方主政的资历
假使如此，四位中谁最有可能做习的潜在接班人？阿东虽是中委，政治资历最强，但也是第一个被排除的。因为共青团尽管是党的后备干部组织，可也是最不看好、不显存在感的中央部门。虽然历任共青团的头都会安排到地方做省长或书记，但能够做到总书记的，只有胡锦涛一人，李克强虽然也曾作为最高领导人来培养，可终究只做到总理。除胡、李之外的历届其他共青团的头，能够跻身政治局就不错了。阿东还有一个天生的弱项，他是少数民族，这就决定了他不可能成为习的接班人，甚至也不太可能入常。
李云泽和关志鸥二人是中央大吏，一个掌管金融监管，一个掌管自然资源。虽然自然资源部是国务院组成部门，金融监管总局是国务院直属部门，前者比后者看上去规格更高一点，但李云泽是山东人，和彭丽媛是老乡。中国政坛除了习的闽江帮，二十大后山东帮也崛起，而山东帮和彭有直接关系。因此，李比关似乎更有优势一点。不过，二人要成为接班人的可能性也不高。中共的接班人，或者最高权力层，从中共培养干部的一般规律看，要有主政地方的资历，仅仅有中央部门的经历，是进不了最高权力层的，温家宝是一个罕见例外，当然，今后他们二人不排除到地方做一把手，李云泽就是从四川省的副省长上调中央做京官的。
打破惯例开始第3任期：2023年3月10日，中国第14届全国人民代表大会第3次全体会议上，2952名与会代表投票表决，一致支持69岁的习近平续任国家主席及中国中央军事委员会主席。宣布当选之际，现场响起如雷掌声。由此，习近平打破邓小平之后中共领导人执政两届共10年的惯例，开始其第3个任期。
老虎苍蝇一起打，建立个人权威：2013年，习近平在十八届中央纪委二次全会提出要「坚定不移惩治腐败、从严治党」，并且喊出「老虎、苍蝇一起打」的口号，随后中共展开了一系列党内整治运动。 2014年，前中共政法委书记周永康成为因腐败被捕的最高级别官员，被开除党籍、公职，判处无期徒刑，打破了自邓小平时代以来「刑不上常委」的潜规则。中国官方透露，从2012年12月到2021年5月，中国纪检监察机关共立案审查省部级以上领导干部392人、厅局级干部2.2万人、县处级干部17万余人、乡科级干部61.6万人；查处人数共计408万9000人。反腐运动除了打击腐败官员之外，也是习近平铲除政治异己的手段。
取消连任限制，加深个人崇拜：2017年10月的中共19大上，「习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想」、「实现中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦」被写入党章。普遍认为，习近平在此时巩固了在党内的核心领导地位。隔年2018年第十三届人大一次会议正式批准修宪案，取消了邓小平时期定下的国家主席任期限制，为习近平在二十大后继续连任铺平了道路。 2021年公布的《中共第三份历史决议》再度加深了对于习近平的个人崇拜，《决议》写道：「党确立习近平同志党中央的核心、全党的核心地位，确立习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的指导地位」。
习：脱贫胜利 李：6亿人月收入不到1000元：习近平在2012年出任最高领导人时曾宣布，消除贫困是他的首要施政目标。 2021年2月，他在全国脱贫攻坚总结表彰大会上宣告，「经过全党全国各族人民共同努力，脱贫攻坚战取得了全面胜利，现行标准下9899万农村贫困人口全部脱贫。」然而，世界银行对于「极度贫困」的标准是每人每天生活支出低于1.9美元，中国的标准略低于世界银行，约为每天1.7美元。经济学家胡星斗曾表示，如果按照联合国或世界银行标准来衡量，中国还有好几亿贫困人口。值得注意的是，中国国务院总理李克强曾在2020年表示，仅管中国人均年收入是3万元人民币，「但是有6亿人每个月的收入也就1000元，在一个中等城市可能租房都困难。」
提共同富裕，私企大佬成目标：尽管宣布脱贫成功，中国贫富差距的鸿沟却越来越大。为了调节此现象，2021年8月习近平在中央财经委员会第十次会议上提出「共同富裕」是社会主义的本质要求，是中国式现代化的重要特征。该次会议强调要合理调节过高收入，鼓励高收入人群和企业更多回报社会。会议中也提到「三次分配」的规划，即在道德力量的作用下，鼓励富人捐赠，让资金流向相对贫困人群而实现社会收入转移。此后，多家私企成为中国政府打击的目标，私企大佬如阿里巴巴创办人马云、京东创办人刘强东等人纷纷宣布退居幕后，避免惹祸上身。
整治房地产业，打击教培行业：近几年，中国政府开始采取对资本敌视和打压。在习近平「房住不炒」的口号下，北京开始采取实质性措施抑制房地产市场的畸形扩张。 2021年推出对房地产企业实施限制融资的「三条红线」，要求房企压缩负债，这导致以恒大为代表的一批地产开发商陷入巨大的债务危机，也使以往热络的房地产投资市场明显降温。 2021年7月，中国政府推出「双减」政策整顿教培行业：严禁教培机构资本化运作，规定现有学科类培训机构统一登记为非营利性机构，被视为宣告教培行业的「死刑」。教培领军企业新东方和好未来的股价，分别暴跌超过80%和90%。
新冠疫情：从最初掩盖真相到强硬清零政策：2019年末，新冠疫情首先在武汉悄悄扩散，当局在疫情初期试图隐瞒消息。武汉市中心医院医生李文亮曾在私人微信透露可能是SARS病毒，并且质疑当局「没有人传人」的说法。他随后遭到上级约谈、被央视新闻报导成「传播谣言」，却在一个月后死于新冠肺炎。如今，在全球疫情肆虐两年多后，大部分国家逐渐恢复正常生活，但习近平仍强调，中国防疫将继续坚持「动态清零」。中国一再出现大中城市全城被“静态管理”，动辄数千万居民处在被封锁的状态，经济发展也严重受到防疫政策影响，2022年第二季度GDP同比增长仅0.4%，创下两年来的新低。
从铜锣湾书店事件跨境抓人到国安法砸毁香港一国两制：2016年，香港铜锣湾书店5名书店股东及员工突然失踪，其中书店经营者李波事后证明在香港被抓，引起舆论对于「内地执法人员跨境抓人」的不满。三年后，香港2019年爆发反《逃犯条例》修订草案运动，民众发起的示威游行遭到香港政府镇压。一年之后，中国人大2020年表决通过了《香港国安法》，批评政府的人士将有可能被冠上「颠覆国家政权」的罪名，多间香港新闻媒体遭到警方调查或主动宣布停止运作。习近平今年会晤新任香港特首李家超时表示，今年适逢香港「回归祖国」25周年， 「尽管经历了许多风雨挑战，但『一国两制』在香港的实践取得了举世公认的成功。」事实上，在批评者眼中，「一国两制」、「港人治港」等自治方针如今只剩下口号。
从新疆再教育营海外曝光到人权理事会出台报告：中国政府长期以来称，须以严厉手段打击新疆的“分离主义、极端主义和恐怖主义势力”。习近平2014年访问新疆就曾说过：「对暴力恐怖活动，必须保持严打高压态势，先发制敌，露头就打。」自2017年起，新疆大规模设立「再教育营」，拘押维吾尔族等少数民族。德国独立学者郑国恩（Andrian Zenz）的研究首先披露了这一现象，后来国际媒体的报导逐渐揭示有关营内强制劳动、虐待、洗脑等侵犯人权的做法。中国至今仍否认新疆再教育营存在，称这些机构为杜绝极端主义、为维吾尔人提供就业技能的职业技能教育培训中心。 2022年8月，联合国人权高专办公室发布了报告，称中国在新疆对维吾尔人及其他少数民族实施酷刑的指控是可信的，并提到中国可能犯下反人类罪。
大国外交：一带一路从大张旗鼓「撒币」到问题重重：中国政府于2013年开始倡议并主导被称为「一带一路」的跨国经济带，其范围涵盖了历史上的陆上和海上丝绸之路。这也是习近平所提出的「大国外交」的一部分 ── 将自身明确定位为世界上具有影响力的大国，与开发中国家发展经济合作伙伴关系。中国政府称一带一路倡议「旨在加强区域互联互通，拥抱更美好的未来」，至2021年为止，已对163个国家总计投资8430亿美元。但近年来此倡议却遭到不少批评，一些西方国家称之为「债务陷阱外交」，例如斯里兰卡和黑山便因为积欠中国高额贷款，而陷入债务危机。中国政府慷慨援助外国、免去穷国债务，则被一些人戏称为「大撒币」。此外，输出中国工人到海外大量兴建基础建设，也引起生态和人权等相关争议。
中美关系恶化：从贸易战到芯片战：2018年，时任美国总统特朗普宣布对中国进口商品征收大规模关税，其理由是中国窃取美国智慧财产权。接下来几个月，美国和中国互相对从对方国家进口的商品征收高额关税，中美贸易战开打。习近平当时曾称，中国希望与美国达成贸易协定，但中国不怕打贸易战，如有必要中国会「反击」。 2020年1月，中美代表在华盛顿签署第一阶段经贸协议，中国除了承诺将在未来两年扩大进口美国商品外，也承诺将进行一系列实质性改革。美国方面则除了少部份关税有所降低，大部份维持不变。拜登上任后继续延长对华加征关税。今年8月，拜登签署《芯片法案》策进美国半导体产业发展。9月，美国政府宣布禁止芯片公司英伟达和AMD出口高阶AI芯片至中国。美国商务部表示正在审查其他有关中国的政策和做法，「防止先进技术落入坏人之手」。
对台政策：中国人不打中国人，但不放弃使用武力：习近平多次公开表示：坚决反对「台独」分裂和外部势力干涉，绝不为任何形式的「台独」势力留下任何空间。 2019年，习近平在《告台湾同胞书》发表40周年纪念会上表示「中国人不打中国人」，愿意以最大诚意、尽最大努力争取和平统一的前景，但不承诺放弃使用武力，保留采取一切必要措施的选项。 2022年8月，美国众议院议长佩洛西访台后，中国解放军在包围台湾的六个海域空域展开军事演训行动，并组织实弹射击。解放军还宣布，往后将常态组织台海方向战备警巡。
宣称中俄没有合作的『禁区』：2019年，中俄关系提升为新时代全面战略协作伙伴关系。自乌俄战争以来，中国至今一直拒绝谴责俄罗斯，而直指美国和北约挑起冲突。如今各国对俄罗斯实施抵制，中国反而渔翁得利，从俄罗斯购买了大量低价石油。在今年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的几周前，习近平在北京接待了普京，期间双方发表了一份联合声明，反对北约东扩，还称「两国友谊没有界限，没有合作的『禁区』。9月14日至16日，习近平在新冠疫情之后首度迈出国门，飞往中亚出席上合组织峰会，当然也和普京会了面。
中印关系从高点跌到谷底：中国和印度相互接壤，自1962年印中边界战争以来，印度便对中国长期有着不信任感。但在习近平掌权之后，中印将 2014年定为「中印友好交流年」并发表《关于构建更加紧密的发展伙伴关系的联合声明》，接下来连续数年，习近平每年都和印度总理莫迪进行至少一次会面。 不过，2020年中印两国部队数度在两国边界附近的加勒万河谷发生冲突，造成双方人员伤亡，后续在两国官员进行数轮会谈之后，事件才逐渐平息。期间，印度政府宣布禁止民众使用中国手机应用程序、印度全国贸易商总会呼吁全国抵制中国货。近两年，中印双方关系仍因边界纠纷而处于谷底。尽管习近平和莫迪皆出席了本月的上合组织峰会，但双方并未如外界预期一般在峰会期间进行会晤。
欧盟称习近平「转向独裁」：默克尔任德国总理期间，德中经济交流大幅增加。 2021年默克尔卸任德国总理前，中国官媒称默克尔为「中国人民的老朋友」。与此同时，中国同其他欧洲国家互动也非常热络：在「一带一路」倡议下，中欧之间大幅提升铁路货运量；中国企业在欧盟国家投资基础建设工程、收购经营不善的公司。此种友好局面近年逐渐产生变化，2019年欧盟宣布将中国称为「制度性竞争对手」。 2020年，中欧完成投资协定谈判，但由于中国的人权争议而被欧洲议会无限期冻结。 2021年，欧委会主席冯德莱恩指出：「欧中之间存在根本分歧，无论是在经济制度与应对全球化上，民主与人权上，还是在与第三国打交道上。」该文件也强调，习近平「转向独裁」引发欧盟严重关切。欧盟在今年中欧峰会之际对中国喊话：「希望中国即使不支持我们（对俄罗斯）的制裁行动，也至少别对其加以破坏。」不过，习近平仍高调展现和普京的友好关系。
南海筑岛礁建军事基地：2015年，菲律宾向中驻菲使馆提出外交抗议，要求北京停止在距离菲律宾仅有135公里的填海造陆活动。华盛顿智库公布的图像显示了中国自2014年以来在南沙群岛的填海造陆进展，其中包含建设可供轰炸机起降的跑道、人造新岛等。接下来几年，中方继续进行扩建工程。中国官媒《人民日报》2017年底刊文称「南海岛礁的面貌焕然一新」。同年度的一份智库报告指出，中国在南海岛礁上又兴建了飞机库，地下仓库，导弹发射井和雷达等设施。 今年3月，美军印太司令阿奎利诺表示，中国至少有3座南海人造岛礁已完全军事化，中国外交部发言人汪文斌对此回应，中方「在本国领土上部署必要的国土防御设施，是主权国家的当然权利」。然而，2015年习近平与前美国总统欧巴马会谈时曾称，中国在南沙群岛工程，「不是以他国为目标或给他国造成影响的活动」，中国「没有追求军事化的意图」。如今中国官方宣布完成南海岛礁军事化，与过去习近平之言背道而驰。
战狼外交：激起中国民族主义情绪：与过去几十年素来温和的中国外交官们相比，自从川普出任美国总统，中美贸易战开始之后，中国外交官在国际间的作风渐渐转为强硬的「战狼式外交」。 「战狼」一词来源于2015年中国的一部同名电影，剧中一些台词如「犯我中华者，虽远必诛」成功点燃了中国人的民族主义情绪。路透社2020年的一篇报导称，有中国外交官证实习近平曾指示，面对中美关系恶化等国际挑战，外交官们必须立场强硬地展现「斗争精神」。有学者认为，与其说是借战狼姿态维护国家尊严，不如说是想表演给国民看，展示中国不好欺负的形象。政治评论员邓聿文指出，以前中国总被骂软弱外交，故如今外交官们的「战狼外交」深受民众欢迎。国家的外交迎合国民喜好，使激化的民族主义情绪更加膨胀，却在国际间引起其他国家反感。
言论审查：微信敏感词87%与习近平有关：加拿大多伦多大学公民实验室2020年公布的研究显示，社交平台微信在新冠疫情开始初期屏蔽了大量敏感词，内容广泛，包括中国政府防疫措施、港澳台防疫工作、李文亮事件等。当中192组敏感词涉及中央领导层，其中87%与习近平有关，包括「习近平到武汉」、「习近平+疫情蔓延」等。该报告指出，中国领导人在疫情初期强调「牢牢掌握新闻舆论的领导权」，一方面是为了减低公众恐慌，另一方面是避免领导人尴尬，维持中央政府的威信。
监控密度居世界之冠，社会事件仍频传：2022年6月，《纽约时报》公布的调查报告称，中国政府正透过手机和监控取得公民个资以稳固政权。中国也连续数年蝉联监控摄像头密度最高的国家，全球近10亿个监控摄像头中，有一半以上在中国。这些监控网和自2014年以来推动的「社会信用体系」紧密相连，以规范公共行为、惩罚「失信者」。习近平曾多次强调社会信用体系建设的重要性，表示要构建「一处失信、处处受限」的信用惩戒大格局。尽管看似布下了涵盖各个角落的安全网，社会事件仍时有所闻，今年发生的丰县铁链女事件和唐山烧烤店打人事件引起大众关注，这也暴露了社会弊端不是仅靠监控和社会信用体系就能根治的。刘捷入常的概率很大
如此看来，四人中刘捷的机会最大。他现在主政浙江，虽然还不是一把手，但已经是重任在肩。浙江是中国的经济大省，又是习近平的旧地。现浙江省委书记就由陕西调过来，先做省长，然后出任书记。刘捷也会遵循这一路径，做了几年省长后，要么在浙江，要么到外地做省委书记。以他的年龄，在未来十多年，主政两个地方，然后上调中央，进入政治局完全没有问题，虽然现在无法预测他是否会成为习的接班人，但入常的概率应该很大。
当然，未来十多年的事，变数很大。尽管按照共产党培养干部的逻辑，习的接班人应该出自现在的70后高官中。然而，问题恰恰在于，谁会成为那个接班人，完全由习一人说了算。而习考虑接班人的首要因素，则是和他的亲密程度，认同和接受他的治党治国理念。也许这四人都不是习中意的人，或者目前中意未来不一定中意。说不定还有其他黑马杀出，只要人选没有确定，各种可能性都存在，要具体预测到哪个人，困难很大。但有一点基本可以确立，只要不发生太大意外，习的接班人对象，会是目前的70后省部级（包括副省部级官员）群体。
邓聿文为政治评论员，独立学者，中国战略分析智库研究员兼中国战略分析杂志共同主编。
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© 2023年德国之声版权声明：本文所有内容受到著作权法保护，如无德国之声特别授权，不得擅自使用。任何不当行为都将导致追偿，并受到刑事追究。
BBCThere is a festive chill at Sandringham on Christmas Day morning - especially when you find yourself standing outside St Mary Magdalene Church at 5am, as I often have in my years as a royal correspondent.
Last year I watched as King Charles and Queen Camilla led the royal party to church on Christmas Day, followed by the Prince and Princess of Wales, holding the hands of their children as they spoke to the crowds.
The Princess kept a firm grip on playful Prince Louis while they were given Christmas cards and presents, along with dozens of flowers.
I could never have predicted that this was the last time we would see her in person for more than six months. I was expecting to head to Italy with the couple on a royal tour, but she wouldn't join the Royal Family on another official engagement until Trooping the Colour in June.
On 16 January, the Princess of Wales was admitted to hospital for major abdominal surgery. At the end of March, she went public with her cancer diagnosis and chemotherapy.
For her husband, it was the start of a year that he would go on to call "the hardest of his life".
It throws up memories of Queen Elizabeth's own "sombre year" of 1992 when there were multiple marriage breakdowns within the family and a major fire. At the time she described it with the now infamous phrase, "annus horribilis".
Getty ImagesIn 2024, Prince William faced not only his wife's ill health, but the King's cancer diagnosis too, and always there in the background was the apparently unresolved conflict with his brother Prince Harry.
But it was also a year in which certain aspects of Prince William's approach were cemented - family came first, the school run was prioritised. For the Prince of Wales, this time of turbulence appears to have reinforced what matters to him most.
Along the way, however, it has also become evident what kind of senior royal William wants to be. We've seen more of his apprenticeship as a global statesman, especially during the 80th anniversary of D-Day on a stage alongside world leaders - but the William way has also left some questioning certain choices he has made.
On 27 February, the Prince of Wales was due to give a reading at the thanksgiving service for the late King Constantine of Greece at St George's Chapel in Windsor. The illustrious guest list included European royalty.
Around an hour before the service was due to begin, however, Kensington Palace announced that the Prince would be unable to attend due to a "personal matter". There were reassuring words from the Prince's team that there was "nothing to panic about" but it was highly unusual.
Around this time, the Princess was given the news that cancerous cells had been discovered in post-operative tests.
Over the next three weeks, the couple told the children what was happening and had time to deal with their questions privately before going public.
Getty Images"I think what was remarkable was just how hard it was for the Prince of Wales at the start of the year," says a friend of the Prince. "His wife had gone in for major surgery and it became worse than expected. Then there was, 'How do I tell my three children that Mummy is ill?'"
All of this was happening against the backdrop of the King's own cancer treatment, which he made public on 5 February.
"At a time when he was trying to protect his wife and children, he had that terrible thought that that if his father dies then everything changes," says the friend.
Several people who know the Prince personally or have worked with him this year told me that the spotlight on what was wrong with his wife took its toll on both William and Catherine.
"He was having to operate against the backdrop of the entire world questioning what was happening to his wife," one friend told me.
Getty ImagesWith his father largely out of action for several weeks and the Princess away from public duty, the royal diary was looking stretched. Prince William was adamant that public duty would have to wait until the situation at home was more settled.
It offered a hint of Prince William's way of doing things. Yes, he understood that his was a life where duty and service are expected. But for him, a man who had experienced immense loss at a young age, his wife and children were most important of all.
There were two other important factors at home that helped the Prince of Wales support his wife and children – his in-laws, the Middletons; and living in Windsor.
When the Princess made her public announcement about her diagnosis, the message was posted on royal social media accounts, and one of the first people to publicly respond was her brother James.
Alongside a childhood holiday photo of himself and his sister, he wrote: "Over the years, we have climbed many mountains together. As a family, we will climb this one with you too."
Together with his sister Pippa and parents Carole and Michael, the family became key to keeping life as normal as possible for the royal children. People living locally reported seeing Carole Middleton, who lives 30 miles away in Bucklebury, Berkshire, regularly driving in and out of Windsor Castle.
And when the Princess's surgery prevented her from driving, it was her mother who often drove her daughter to school to collect the three children.
The decision to move from Kensington Palace to Windsor Castle in 2022 also proved timely.
"Windsor has been a sanctuary. It has provided the protection and privacy the family needed this year," said a friend.
Getty ImagesThe family live in Adelaide Cottage, a four-bedroom house within the Castle grounds that is secluded enough to give the family freedom that Kensington Palace, which is located in central London, could not.
Snatched photos show the Prince of Wales using an electric scooter to get around the grounds. When on royal duty, he would occasionally reveal a snippet about life at home, such as his continued devotion to Aston Villa FC, or a favoured film or TV series – earlier this year he enjoyed action film The Fall Guy and more recently he and the Princess watched spy thriller series Black Doves on Netflix.
He has also taken his children to football matches at local clubs and both he and the Princess have continued to be part of school life at Lambrook, the private school in Berkshire that their children attend. During her treatment, the Princess was still able to be on the sidelines during sports days.
All of this appears to have pushed other personal issues right down the Prince's agenda.
The rancour between William and Harry is said to remain. Harry has visited the UK over the past 12 months but is not believed to have met his brother. They are thought to have not spoken to one another in around two years.
Getty ImagesThere have been new controversies around Prince Andrew in recent months too, including revelations about his links to Chinese businessman Yang Tengbo, who was barred from the UK after concerns about national security risks. Prince Andrew has said that he had ceased contact with Mr Yang.
But the prince did not attend the Royal Family's traditional pre-Christmas lunch.
Such matters will have been dealt with by the King but, as heir to the throne, William's voice in family matters is increasingly significant.
Robert Hardman, journalist and author of Charles III: New King. New Court. The Inside Story, says the relationship between Charles and his eldest son "has reached a new level of understanding".
"We still have a tendency to look at William as the kid, the apprentice, the understudy," he says. "But he's now been a front rank royal for 10 years. He's been around the block more than many current heads of State."
Unusually, much of what the Prince has said about his year has come directly from him rather than via formal statements or briefings.
During his visit to South Africa in November for the Earthshot Prize, the Prince's environmental project, he spoke about his passion for the cause but also about the struggles of 2024.
"From a family point of view, it's been brutal," he told the group of us who had travelled to Cape Town. For someone who has been guarded in the past, his language was surprisingly frank.
His demeanour was open and positive too, clearly energised by Earthshot and being back in Africa, but he a gave a glimpse into how he conflicted he was when he viewed his role as Prince of Wales.
"It's a tricky one," he said. "Do I like more responsibility? No. Do I like the freedom that I can build something like Earthshot, then yes."
Getty ImagesWhat struck me the most after spending almost a week in Cape Town was how he framed his outlook on the modern monarchy, saying he wanted to do the job with a "smaller R in Royal".
"I'm trying to do it differently," he admitted, "and I'm trying to do it for my generation."
What he meant was not doing things in the same way as his father and grandmother.
Charles and William "are different characters", observes Robert Hardman. "The King is more intellectually curious, and spiritually and theologically engaged. These areas aren't of deep interest to William.
"The tone of their communication is different. The King remains fairly traditional. William has his own way of doing things."
Some have questioned the William way. One critic, Graham Smith, chief executive of the anti-monarchy group Republic, argues against the Prince's decision to focus his efforts on the issue of homelessness.
"[It is] crass and hypocritical of William to get involved in it, given the excessive wealth we gift him," he argues.
However, Mr Hardman disputes the notion that William's involvement in projects like this are inappropriate. "I think William is currently a more conventional Prince of Wales than his father was at this age. Prince Charles was a more radical heir to the throne.
"The creation of the Prince's Trust sounded alarm bells at Buckingham Palace and Downing Street. William isn't ringing alarm bells."
Prince William has far fewer patronages than his father. The King currently has 669 – many maintained from his 70 years as heir to the throne. Prince William's slimline, more focused approach leaves him with around 30.
It is a deliberate strategy: fewer projects but higher impact in the hope of bringing about social change. Those who have worked closely with him this year praise this approach.
"His contribution is unbelievable," said Hannah Jones, the CEO of the Earthshot Prize. "He has set the vision."
But that bold action comes with more risk.
Getty ImagesLast month, I travelled to Newport in South Wales with the Prince to meet those working on his homelessness project in the city. It was 10 months since his wife's cancer diagnosis, her chemotherapy was complete and William seemed to me to be less burdened by life.
He was in listening mode, and spoke to dozens of people. In some of the conversations, it struck me how many ventured into the political.
The Prince told the project team to think differently, to be disruptors and challenge the way things had always been done.
"We drive in a very non-political lane," a royal source told me. "We use our platform to convene and shine the spotlight on a societal issue and that remains unchanged. We are feeling bullish about what we can achieve even in really hard circumstances."
In the years ahead William will no doubt face further challenges around his role. In this current age of social media, for example, deference and respect for monarchy isn't the mood in the room.
But it is clear from his public work that he doesn't view his future as one filled with plaque unveilings and handshaking.
"I have to be seen to be believed," is a quote attributed to his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth II. For her grandson, the approach is more: "I have to be seen to be making a difference."
ReutersThrough 2024, he has ticked off meetings with many world leaders from the Emperor of Japan to the President of South Africa rounded off by the US president-elect, cementing his role on the global stage, promoting the UK with a touch of soft diplomacy.
Next November, the COP climate summit is being held in Brazil and the Prince is "looking forward to playing a role there". An Earthshot Prize in Brazil may be a possibility too.
Ultimately, the development of Prince William as family man-meets-global statesman is ongoing - and he's looking increasingly comfortable juggling both roles.
Top picture credit: Getty Images
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Getty ImagesTwo NHS hospital trusts in London are using AI technology to see if they can spot type 2 diabetes in patients up to a decade in advance of the condition occuring.
Imperial College and Chelsea and Westminster hospital NHS foundation trusts have started training the AI system - called Aire-DM - that checks patients' ECG heart traces for subtle early warning signs that are tricky for doctors to otherwise detect.
Clinical trials are planned for 2025 to see if it works as well as is hoped.
Early work suggests they system can spot risk about 70% of the time.
Giving the AI extra details about other background risk factors, such as the patients age, sex and whether they already have high blood pressure and or are overweight, can improve the predictive power, says lead researcher Dr Fu Siong Ng.
He told BBC News: "It is already quite good just with the ECG data, but it is even better when you add in those."
An ECG (electrocardiogram) records and can reveal problems with the electrical activity of the heart, including the rate and rhythm.
Dr Fu says the ECG changes that the system detects are too varied and subtle for even highly skilled doctors to interpret with the naked eye.
"It's not as simple as saying it's this or that bit of the ECG. It's looking at a combination of subtle things."
As part of the trial up to 1,000 patients at both hospitals will have ECG scans read by the AI system to see if it helps detect and predict disease.
It's not something that will be offered to routinely yet, although the experts hope it could be rolled out more widely on the NHS. That could take five years or more, says Dr Fu.
The British Heart Foundation, which is funding the work, says detecting people at risk of diabetes could ultimately save lives.
Having uncontrolled type 2 diabetes can lead to heart attacks and strokes, for example.
Maintaing a healthy weight and eating a healthy diet and exercising can help protect against complications.
Professor Bryan Williams, Chief Scientific and Medical Officer at the British Heart Foundation, said: "This exciting research uses powerful artificial intelligence to analyse ECGs, revealing how AI can spot things that cannot usually be observed in routinely collected health data. This kind of insight could be a gamechanger in predicting future risk of developing type 2 diabetes, years before the condition begins.
"Type 2 diabetes is a rapidly growing health challenge that increases the risk of developing heart disease, however with the right support it is possible for people to reduce their risk of developing the condition. We look forward to seeing how this technology could be incorporated into clinical practice."
Type 2 diabetes is a common condition where the level of sugar (glucose) in the blood becomes too high.
It happens if the body cannot make enough of, or cannot correctly use, a hormone called insulin, which controls blood sugar.
Some cases are linked to being overweight.
That is because fat can build up in and around the pancreas - the organ that makes insulin.
Type 1 diabetes, meanwhile, is an autoimmune disease.
BBC"We have appalling roads, no street lights, no fibre broadband, no mobile phone signal, no gas, no mains water, no mains sewerage and no mains electricity."
Sam Wood is one of the 48 people living in the remote Upper Coquet valley in Northumberland, in farms and cottages dotted along a single track road winding into the Cheviot Hills, straddling the border between England and Scotland.
She has campaigned for a decade to get mains power to an off-grid community she describes as "on the edge of society".
But with a connection to mains electricity coming, this is the last Christmas the community will have to celebrate with the threat of a blackout hanging over them.
Shona AndersonThe noisy diesel generators that power their homes cost up to £10,000 a year to run, and can break down at any moment, including on Christmas Day.
"We never know when it might happen, we can go months with no problems then the generator can stop working three times in a week," Sam says.
"My husband Daniel has to go out in the dark to try and sort it and if he can't, well, I get the candles out."
Ian GlendinningThere are very few people in the country who are able to repair and service them.
For now, the community relies on Claude Schiavetta, who travels from his home in Dunkeld in Scotland.
Ian Glendinning"Sometimes when I arrive, families have been without power for a week or two," he says. "So they're usually very pleased to see me."
He may no longer be needed in the valley, but Claude doesn't begrudge the residents.
"I'll miss them all when they get power, but it's about time," he says. "Nobody should be without mains electricity in this country in this day and age."
The valley missed out on the electrification programmes of the 20th Century because the farms were too remote, and for many years the community was told a connection would be too expensive.
But when the Home Office decided it needed to supply mains electricity to three emergency telecommunication masts in the valley, an opportunity arose to connect many of the properties too.
The project is being funded by the Home Office and Ministry of Defence (MoD) which owns the land.
The valley is within the Northumberland National Park and its planning authority initially wanted all the lines buried.
A compromise was agreed, which will see 7.5 miles (12km) carried by poles and three miles (4.7km) run underground.
Northern Powergrid site team manager Matthew Brown says their aim is to have "the least impact possible".
"We did so many surveys, on the trees, on great crested newts, on the birds of prey and we have an on site archaeologist to make sure we don't damage anything we come across."
"I grew up in this area, we want to preserve it for future generations," he adds.
Scott Anderson's family has been at Linshiels for generations and although he still farms there, he and his family live in a house further down the valley which has mains electricity.
Shona Anderson says there were many reasons why they moved out, but the reliance on a noisy, dirty generator was definitely one of them.
Scott Anderson"It would break down and sometimes we'd be without power for weeks or even months, she says, adding: "We have had times when we went away for the weekend just to have power.
"It's great to think next Christmas we should be back in here, the kids are older now but we've had some amazing times here, they've got good memories of the place."
Not everybody in the valley is getting mains electricity.
Sheep farmer Megan Byatt's home is too remote to get a reliable connection.
"It's a bit of a running joke that we're not getting it, but I don't begrudge my neighbours," she says.
"I'm hoping we'll get some renewables so at least we'll get something out of it."
Upper Coquetdale is a community of fewer than 50 people, some living many miles apart, but the valley Christmas party is well attended and all the talk this year is of the new cable.
"There's still that little doubt," Shona says, "but it's so nice to see the poles as you drive up the valley and you think to yourself, yes, this could actually happen."
Sam agrees: "This is a community where we look out for each other.
"If someone's in trouble, we all help, and that's happened many times.
"Mains electricity won't change that, the valley will always be a very special place."
Follow BBC North East on X, Facebook, Nextdoor and Instagram. Send your story ideas to northeastandcumbria@bbc.co.uk.
ReutersFrench Prime Minister François Bayrou believes dozens of people died when Cyclone Chido hit the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte on 14 December, rather than thousands as some have feared.
Bayrou told BFMTV he thought the "alarmist and sometimes terrifying numbers put forward won't be borne out in reality".
The confirmed death toll on Mayotte so far is 35 but, in the immediate aftermath of the cyclone, local prefect François-Xavier Bieuville feared that it would "definitely be several hundred" and could reach thousands.
The prefect told France Info radio on Tuesday that investigations in the field were progressing well that "allow us to think that we will corroborate this figure of 35".
Defending his initial remarks, Bieuville insisted "I have never been alarmist, I was simply unable to give the number of victims".
Officials said it had been difficult to determine the scale of fatalities in the wake of the disaster 10 days ago, due to many areas of Mayotte being inaccessible and the fact that victims were buried within 24 hours in accordance with Islamic customs.
There is also uncertainty about the true population of Mayotte, a French Indian Ocean territory.
Officially it has 320,000 residents, but authorities estimate about 100,000 to 200,000 undocumented migrants may also be living there.
"I think [the number of dead] will be in the dozens and not in the thousands," the prime minister told BFMTV on Monday night.
The archipelago is one of the poorest parts of France, with many of its residents living in shanty towns.
Cyclone Chido was the worst storm to hit the territory in 90 years, bringing winds of up to 260 km/h (160mph) and flattening areas where people lived in shacks with metal roofs.
France held a day of national mourning in the wake of the cyclone on Monday. President Emmanuel Macron visited the territory last week, and was heckled by angry locals demanding more aid in devastated areas.
Some survivors went for a week without water, communication or electricity.
Authorities restored water in the main points of the territory on Tuesday, Bieuville said. "Even if this water is still sometimes a little difficult to deliver, our fellow citizens have water."
He also said there was no fuel shortage any more and cars could now be filled up.
The prime minister had earlier said that a field hospital would also be operational by Tuesday morning.
Cyclone Chido moved on to continental Africa after hitting Mayotte, killing 120 people in Mozambique and 13 in Malawi.
秦制时代的原子化百姓，没有任何与朝廷正面讨价还价的能力，这是基本常识。南宋自然也适用这一常识。
朱熹评价两宋的财政汲取力度，称“古者刻剥之法，本朝皆备” ，乃历代汲取手段的集大成者。其中，南宋的汲取力度又远大于北宋。南宋国土面积不如北宋，但财政数据显示，宋孝宗时代的汲取总额，已直追高强度敛财的宋神宗时代——须知，此时距离靖康之难不过短短数十年，经济与人口皆远未恢复到巨变前的水平。所以清代史学家赵翼评价南宋时，也说它是个“取民无艺” 的政权，汲取百姓血汗毫无节制。
南宋“取民无艺”的典型证据之一，是被北宋朝野视为暴政、在真宗与仁宗时代一度被取消的丁税（丁身钱），在南宋又以各种名目重新冒了出来。百姓的负担随之大幅提升。方健先生依据南宋地方志《嘉泰会稽志》卷五《赋税》提供的绍兴府新增税赋资料，做过一番计算，结论是南宋的绍兴府“平均每丁增加4.232贯文的税赋负担，较之北宋初每丁160文的身丁而言，增加了25.45倍”。
于是，在宋高宗绍兴七年（1137）十二月，礼部尚书刘大中上奏说，浙东百姓苦于人头税，已经开始拒绝养活新生儿了：
今浙东之民有不举子者。臣尝承乏外郡，每见百姓诉丁盐紬绢最为疾苦。盖为其子成丁则出紬绢，终其身不可免。愚民宁杀子，不欲输紬绢；又资财嫁遣力所不及，故生女者例不举。诚由赋役烦重，人不聊生所致也。
大意是：现下，许多浙东百姓生了儿子不肯养育。臣我以前做过地方官，经常听百姓们说最痛苦的负担是丁盐紬绢。养了儿子，到了成丁之年，就要给朝廷缴纳紬绢，而且是年年要交。所以愚民宁愿杀子来逃避。养了女儿又会发愁没资产将她嫁出去，所以他们生了女儿也不养。总之，百姓杀子的原因，是朝廷赋税太重导致民不聊生。
次年（1138）五月，宋高宗下发了一道谕旨：“禁贫民不举子，其不能育者，给钱养之。” 严禁南宋百姓生了孩子不养活。与该诏书相匹配的新政策，是“州县乡村五等、坊郭七等以下贫乏之家，生男女不能养赡者，每人支免役宽剩钱四千” ——乡村人里的第五等，城里人里的第七等（官府按资产多少给百姓家庭划定了等级），这些贫困家庭如果生了孩子无力抚养，每个孩子可向官府领四千文“免役宽剩钱”。绍兴十一年（1141），宋高宗又应地方官员奏请，准许自孕妇怀胎第五个月起，无论贫富，均免除其丈夫一年的“杂差役”，以便丈夫安心照顾产妇与婴儿 。此外，南宋政府还在地方设立“举子仓”。仓库的粮食，专门用于救助生了孩子无力抚养的家庭，标准是生一个孩子“给米一石”，约相当于今天的60公斤 。
中枢频繁出台禁止百姓生子不养的政策，意味着生子不养这种情况。在当时已成为一种引起朝野重点关注的广泛现象。
这些政策，也只是看起来美好，并未真正改变南宋百姓养子成本过高的问题。所以，在宋孝宗时代，“民不举子”仍是南宋社会极为严重的问题。乾道年间，在处州（今浙江境内）做地方官的范成大上奏朝廷，称“处州丁钱太重，遂有不举子之风” ——人头税收得太狠，处州百姓不肯生养孩子。
大略同期，在福建做过提刑官的郑兴裔，也有一道给孝宗的《请禁民不举子状》，主旨是希望朝廷出台政策禁止百姓杀害子女。奏章说：“生子恒多不举”这种风俗，相沿至今所在多有，其中又以“建剑汀邵四州”最为严重，原因是“自军兴以来，户口凋残。贪吏奸胥又复肆其凌虐，丁盐紬绢诛求无艺，愚蠢小民，宁杀子而不愿输税。”郑兴裔告诉孝宗，自己“提刑福建路”两年了，这两年里耳闻目睹了太多父母杀害子女的惨剧，“于兹闻见所及，惨状不可名言”。他提供给朝廷的对策，是恢复本朝“杀子孙徒二年”的律例，发动民众举报，“告官审实，以犯人家财给之”，若举报属实，便将“不举子”家庭的财产奖励给举报人。
郑兴裔的办法可能未被朝廷采纳，也可能是采纳了但没有效果，然后被放弃。稍晚一些时候，孝宗淳熙年间去福建南剑州做地方官的陈安节，发现当地仍是“民俗类不举子”。陈安节的挽救办法，不是发动民众举报，而是“劝其举者，官赋之粟者三年” ——对生养孩子者实施奖赏，由官府连续三年给生养孩子的家庭提供粮食。据陈安节的墓志铭讲，有了三年粮食补助，南剑州百姓不肯生养孩子的风气发生了转变。三年粮食补助不是小数目，墓志铭对陈安节治绩的叙述，也许不算夸张。
大略同期的严州（也在今浙江境内），现象也很典型。据吕祖谦说，严州多盗贼，原因不是民风彪悍，也不是地理位置偏僻，而是“丁钱偏重于它邦，原其情状，实可怜悯”，当地百姓被人头税压得喘不过气来，只好上山去做盗匪。严州地方官府实地探访后，留下了这样一段记录：
深山穷谷至有年三十余，颜状老苍不敢裹头。县吏恐丁数亏折，时复搜括相验，纠令输纳，谓之“貎丁”。民间旣无避免之路，生子往往不举，规脱丁口。一岁之间，婴孺夭阏不知其几。小民虽愚，岂无父子之爱？徒以阨于重赋，忍灭天性，亲相贼杀，伤动和气，悖逆人理，莫斯为甚。
大意是：严州的偏僻山谷之中，藏着很多年过三十、容貌老成却不裹头、不行成人礼的男丁——因为行了成人礼就要纳入簿册，就是缴人头税。地方官吏为了将他们抓出来，常下乡挨家挨户搜查，这种搜查有个专用名词“貌丁”，就是当面检验百姓的面容相貌来判断其是否已经成年、是否应纳人头税。老百姓被“貌丁”逼得无路可走，只好生了孩子不养活，以求减少家庭人丁。一年之间不知有多少孩子因此夭折。底层百姓虽然愚昧，也有父子之爱。他们如此泯灭人性，全是被沉重的税赋所逼。
严州的情况太惨，所以朝野舆论的批评声音也大。南宋政府不得已，只好实施减税政策。据做过谏官的詹元宗讲：严州百姓以耕田养蚕种茶割漆为主业，全家人终年劳作“仅得以无饥”，加上朝廷的种种摊派与苛捐杂税，便活得极为艰难。朝廷实施了减税政策后——该州共计175740人，每年减免14292匹绢，相当于“昔之取者以其十，今之取者以其四” ，也就是将税负从十成降低为四成——严州百姓终于不再杀子：
严之习俗，苦于丁税之苛，有贫不举子之患。至是不复有闻。
可惜的是，严州减税只是特例，并未普及至其他地区。其他地区的官员，仍要继续面对辖下百姓不肯养活新生子女的难题。如在安庆府做地方官的余嵘，面对“乡俗不举子”，能做的只是设立三所救助机构，“各给钱米药饵” ，拨一点钱粮药物，能挽救一个孩子是一个。在福建为官的赵善俊，则大棒加胡萝卜，一面“痛惩不举子者”，一面“凡产育给金谷” 。这些措施效果很有限，且往往人走茶凉、人去政息。终南宋一朝，朝廷拒不减税，故始终没能解决“民不举子”这个问题。
人头税的重压，必然会在生育率上有所反映。葛剑雄在《中国人口发展史》中提到：
从绍兴二十九年到嘉定十六年（1159-1223年）这64年间，（南宋的）户数只增长了114.23%，年平均增长率只有1.23‰，是相当低的。在此期间，南宋境内大多数情况下是比较稳定的，人口的自然增长似不应如此之低。
值得注意的是，前文提到的杀子现象中，有多起恰好发生在“绍兴二十九年到嘉定十六年（1159-1223年）”前后。换言之，若将南宋政权治下存在极重人头税这个事实，与南宋“愚民”宁愿杀子以避人头税这种社会风气联系起来，这六十余年间那相当低的人口自然增长率，便可以得到很合理的解释。简言之，这种低增长率是南宋政权“取民无艺”暴政的必然结果；也是秦汉三国两晋那些人头税负担沉重的时代里，频繁发生过的事情。不必惊讶，没有意外。
前运动员吴柳芳（56学姐）第一次被平台制裁的时候，我没有跟风一些媒体，为吴柳芳叫冤。
原因很简单：
1 看不上一些平台为了引流，一边标榜自己正能量，一边放纵软色情。
又要流量，又要牌坊，还不如Onlyfans来的光明正大。
2 通过“豁出去”来挣流量没毛病，但普通人沉迷其中的同时，也渐渐被堵死了出路。
那些在山村读书女娃娃，起早贪黑的早餐摊老板娘，端茶送水的女服务员，哪个不比吴柳芳难？难道也鼓励他们都“豁出去”吗？
3 吴柳芳的背后是一个MCN机构，专门孵化包装美女，走软色情割韭菜路线，我个人确实是见不得这种机构好。
这对很多用心搞优质内容的创作者来说，是劣币驱逐良币。在本质上，也是物化女性。（肯定了可以通过性暗示来挣钱的行为）
但在绝大多数人的支持下，某音恢复了吴柳芳的账号，很多人本来不知道她的，也去关注账号了，短短几天，她的粉丝就到了600多万。
不过，情况再次发生了变化。
近期，吴柳芳的某音号再次被“制裁”。
不仅禁言，还强制掉粉600多万，目前粉丝来到了还没爆火之前4.4万。
这一次，某音给出的理由是：“多次发布低俗内容吸粉引流，影响恶劣”。
而且不仅把吴柳芳的账号给“灭了”，还对和吴柳芳同一家MCN的十几个账号都给灭了。
对MCN机构“大海星辰”，也采取限制后台账号管理功能30日处置。
这里插一嘴，“大海星辰”的创始人是童锦程，出生于1993年8月1日，因其在抖音和虎牙平台上的低俗内容而走红，被称为“渣男祖师爷”。
自“大海星辰”成立起，就经常通过制造争议话题、以及低俗内容来吸引眼球，从而实现粉丝增长和商业变现。
这也是我在前文中谴责的原因，吴柳芳并不是单纯为了谋生计，还是背后MCN机构作恶的棋子。
照理说，某音的这波操作是我想看到的。
但现在这样搞，反而让我更担忧了。
担忧在哪？
法不可知，则威不可测。
平台的刑罚依据到底在哪里？
一会儿封，一会儿解，还强制掉粉，这和法治社会、契约精神格格不入。
如果平台要封禁一个账号，应该拿出具体的有关规定，到底是哪一条哪一款，得说明情况。
而不是说封就封，说解就解。
既然平台开始以擦边为由封了吴柳芳的账号，怎么又突然解开了呢？
怎么又在吴柳芳没有发布违规作品的情况下，又给封了呢？
再次，很多人关注吴柳芳成为她的粉丝，平台又依据什么条款来强制清粉？
要知道，有很多人本来是没有下载某音app的，只是听说了这档子事，下载了某音app，成为了某音的用户。
说明吴柳芳也是变相地在为平台吸粉。
此外，人是在你平台被捧红的，现在你把她打成“低俗吸粉”之流，一键清理。
你自己呢？
钟晱晱之前炮轰某音说过两句话：
“以强欺弱，霸凌弱小。这不是你个人的行为，是对人类技术文明的亵渎”，
“不要以所谓的避风港原则，对这些行为进行搪塞！”
图源：经济观察报
如果说吴柳芳造成了“不良影响”，那么平台就没有责任吗？人家就是利用你的算法，你的推荐机制火的。
现在把吴柳芳罚了，平台呢？
什么事也没有，打开app，黑丝擦边主播还是一抓一大把，少了吴柳芳，更有后来人。
再一个层面，吴柳芳因为“低俗内容”收到了惩罚，
平台就用不追究责任了吗？
打个不恰当的比方，就是扫黄工作，也不是光抓小姐，小姐的营业场所也要被整顿吧？
再次强调，中国是一个法治国家，平台这翻手为云、覆手为雨，事后还把自己摘得干干净净的行为，让人感到害怕。
今天可以是吴柳芳，明天就可以是李柳芳、张柳芳。
正如钟晱晱所说：
“盈利性平台企业必须承担法律责任。”
平台随心所欲地删稿、推流，通过技术、算法，让网络成为玩弄民众智商的场所。
这不仅严重破坏了国家的法律体系，也对当前的营商环境造成了严重的伤害。
无论是被造谣的钟晱晱，还是退役谋生的吴柳芳。
某平台，该给一个说法了！
网络辟谣这门手艺，上海算是祖师爷，如今苏州也得了真传，技术愈发炉火纯青。
近日，有一些自媒体发布文章和视频，对大量外资企业已经或准备撤出苏州表示关注，表达担忧。作为外资制造业企业集聚的高地与重镇，苏州的变化对中国宏观经济影响深远，更牵动人们日益敏感的神经。
真有外资企业在撤离吗？哪些外企撤离了？比例占多大？因为什么原因撤离？出于对自己工作和收入的关心，人们迫切想要知道这些问题的答案，也迫切期待政府采取果断措施改善局面。
于是，苏州行动了，苏州辟谣了……
虽然辟谣一件众所周知的事情本身很难理喻，但不得不说，苏州辟谣的水平还是相当高的。
你们不是说外资企业在撤离苏州吗？我拿实际的数据来打脸：
你看，我们苏州现在有外资企业24639户，比上个月多了35户，比去年底多了1000户。短期在增长，长期也在增长，你们吃饱了没事干少传点谣言吧！
这次辟谣，绝对是高手在操盘！
辟谣，有三重境界：
辟谣境界第一重，主打一个你爱信不信
由权威部门出面，通常是地方政府或者是公安机关等主管单位发一个辟谣通告，说某某事情不实。具体哪里不实呢？不说。真实情况是怎样的呢？也不说。反正我们权威，反正只有我们掌握信息，我说不实就是不实。
“你爱信不信”的辟谣，力度很大，但效果就几乎没有。谣言之所以有快速传播的空间，反映的是公众对真相的极度渴求，不提供真相的单纯辟谣无法满足公众的信息需求，自然也无法平息谣言。
辟谣境界第二重，主打一个抠细枝末节
这类辟谣通常会抓住复杂传言中某个微不足道的错误细节来作文章，通过否定细节来把整个传言定性为谣言。
例如有传言说“喜羊羊昨晚拿着80公分的大砍刀杀了灰太狼”，某地出来辟谣说12月22日我市不存在有人拿80公分砍刀杀狼的事件，请大家不信谣不传谣。然而真相是，凶杀事件发生在12月23日凌晨2点，砍刀长度是75公分，这样一来，“昨晚”的确是不严谨，“80公分”的确是不准确，可这个说法能算谣言吗？
“抠细枝末节”的辟谣，刚开始在上海流行的时候还能唬到一些人，现在大家普遍识破了这个套路，效果就大打折扣了。
辟谣境界第三重，拿光鲜一面的真实信息来遮掩全貌
这类辟谣是最有迷惑性的，是第二重境界的升级版本。它会直面事件核心，给人一种不回避问题的自信感觉，并且会给出具体的真实信息，看起来非常坦诚。
上面苏州对外资撤离的辟谣就来到了第三重境界。首先，它直接面对问题的核心，就是外资企业在苏州的现状与过去一段时间的变化情况，然后，它用市场监管的数据回应了公众的需求，给出了外资企业在册数量的权威数据。
然而，外资企业在册数量就是全部的真相了吗？不是的。
当人们讨论外资撤离的时候，第一个直观的感受是企业裁员和产线停产。一家工厂关闭了八成的生产线，裁撤了八成的员工，把相应岗位和产能转到了其他国家和地区，算不算产能撤离？
当人们讨论外资撤离的时候，第二个直观的感受产业龙头企业和大型企业的变动。某个地区撤走了一家年产值50亿的工厂，新开了5家年产值的1000万的工厂，算不算巨头撤离？
当人们讨论外资撤离的时候，第三个直观的感受是实际利用外资的变化。某个地区以前每年能有数十亿美元的外资直接投资，现在只有千万美元级别的投资，算不算资金撤离？
当然，以上各方面的数据苏州在辟谣时都没有提供，我也没有胆量私自去调查发布，所以，我并不知道苏州外资企业实际在岗人数变化，苏州外资企业实际产值变化，苏州大型外资企业数量变化，苏州实际利用外资变化……
苏州外资真实情况如何，你猜？
吴柳芳的抖音账号又被禁言了……粉丝数也从巅峰时的600多万被清理到仅剩4万。
自上次舆论风波后账号解封以来，吴柳芳的账号没有更新过一条视频，没有开过一场直播，没有任何动作。很显然，再次封禁吴柳芳账号不是抖音平台的决定，也不是吴柳芳做错了什么。
吴柳芳账号再次被封的原因有且只有一个：
某某总局要赶尽杀绝。
这实在是一个令人心寒齿冷的故事：
一名拿过世界冠军的体操运动员，因伤退役后无法再靠体操维持体面生活，又因从小封闭训练别无所长，她要怎么改命呢？
互联网给了吴柳芳摆脱体制“施舍”自谋生路的可能性，功成名就管师妹的嘲讽为她带来了影响力晋升的机会。尽管代价是承受如山的压力与无边的恶意，但她承受住了，挺过来了，数百万用户的自发关注终于让她熬出头了。
作为“娘家人”，某某总局一没有给过吴柳芳充分的生活就业保障，二没有在吴柳芳作为小网红艰难打PK的时候给过任何提携帮助，反而在她刚刚有机会熬出头的时候送出赶尽杀绝的“圣诞礼物”。
摸着良心问问自己，这是“娘家人”该做的事吗？这是人能干出来的事吗？
退一万步说，就算按照某些人清朝末年的道德观，非要认为吴柳芳是在擦边，非要觉得吴柳芳丢了国家运动员的脸，非要给吴柳芳当爹指点她该如何生活，那你们也该负担起当爹的责任，给处境不妙的女儿另谋一条“体面”的生路吧？
哦，女儿丢了你的脸，就当众把腿打断任她自生自灭是吧？
摸着良心问问自己，这是“娘家人”该做的事吗？这是任何一个稍有人性的“爹”能干出来的事吗？
其实说到底，做出赶尽杀绝这一决定，并不是因为某某总局有多么强大，而恰恰是因为他们在瑟瑟发抖，他们极度恐惧。
问题是，他们在害怕什么呢？
反贪部门或许能解答大家的疑惑：
某某总局原局长苟仲文，落马，被双开，涉嫌受贿罪和滥用职权罪被逮捕；
某某总局原副局长杜兆才，落马，因受贿罪一审判处有期徒刑十四年；
某某总局原副局长肖天，落马，涉嫌严重违纪违法，正接受组织调查。
吴柳芳在公共关注下存在一天，“举国金牌”的体制就要被审视一天，退役运动员的生活保障就要被审视一天，某某总局利益链条上吸血的每一只牛虻就要被审视一天。
这些人，深知自己经不起审视，所以必须赶尽杀绝。
一点建设性意见：
人家一没偷抢诈骗，二没贪污受贿，不喜欢请随意，不要欺人太甚。
© Vln Niews/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
I’m celebrating this Christmas in three parts. Today, for Christmas Eve, I ignore the excesses of the contemporary commercial feast and consider those less fortunate. On Christmas Day I’ll show some modern depictions of the Nativity, followed on Boxing Day by those of the Adorations.
In Christian tradition, Christmas isn’t all turkey and tinsel, but centred on a poor family living temporarily in an animal shed when Mary gave birth there.
Fritz von Uhde painted one of his finest modernised religious works, A Difficult Journey, in 1890. This imagines Joseph and the pregnant Mary walking on a rough muddy track to Bethlehem, in a wintry European village. Joseph has a carpenter’s saw on his back as the tired couple move on through the dank mist.
In more northern parts of Europe and North America, this time of year can be particularly challenging.
John Everett Millais’ view of Christmas Eve from 1887 is bleak. Bare trees, barren snow with just tracks, and a few crows foraging. The lights may be lit in the house behind those trees, but out here it feels pretty grim.
Appropriately, Christmas was a time for charity, although perhaps not as ostentatious as that shown by royalty.
The younger Carl Oesterley captured history in his painting of Queen Marie of Hanover Giving Presents to the Poor and Needy (1908). Princess Marie of Saxe-Altenburg, as I believe she’s more properly known, lived between 1818-1907. The artist’s father, Carl Oesterley senior, had been court painter to her family, but in 1866 her father’s kingdom was annexed by Prussia. The Princess married King George V of England, and her family never relinquished the throne. Princess Marie is shown as a saintly figure, bathed in light as the poor and needy, including a sick boy in the bed behind her, worship her grace.
Seven years later, in 1915, when the whole of Europe was engulfed by the Great War, Wojciech Kossak painted this Soldiers’ Christmas. The decorations on the small Christmas tree in the foreground echo the uniforms in their greyness. In the sky, a shellburst acts as a metaphor for the guiding star which led the Magi to the infant Jesus in Bethlehem, but below that celestial light these infantry soldiers must continue to fight.
The war’s end brought the deadly flu pandemic that reached even into the most remote communities, including those hidden among the maze of fjords to the north of Bergen in western Norway.
In Nikolai Astrup’s woodcut print of his family’s Christmas Eve at Sandalstrand from 1918, his wife and young son have fallen asleep exhausted, amid traditional Norwegian decorations, including a well-decked Christmas tree.
In the Norwegian capital of Oslo, then still named Kristiania, the Naturalist painter Christian Krohg saw Christmas Eve as an opportunity for redemption.
In Krohg’s Seamstress’s Christmas Eve from 1921, a young woman is in her garret bed-sit, where she has been toiling long hours at her sewing machine. An affluent couple, relatives or employers perhaps, have just arrived to give the young woman a Christmas tree, a large wicker basket of presents, and more. Maybe that young woman can still be saved from the fate brought on by her sweated labour at the sewing machine, and what was seen as her inevitable decline into prostitution.
Moralising approaches to Christmas had developed during the nineteenth century, initially in literature. A Christmas Carol wasn’t Charles Dickens’ first attempt at a Christmas story, but probably remains the most successful of any writer in the English language. Published on 19 December 1843, its first edition had completely sold out by Christmas Eve, and in its first year it was released in no less than thirteen editions.
One edition of A Christmas Carol published in 1915 was illustrated by Arthur Rackham (1867–1939), who from about 1900 onwards produced some of the finest illustrations using pen, ink and watercolour. If there is one British illustrator of that time whose work consistently demonstrates that illustration can be fine art, it must be the great Arthur Rackham.
In its most memorable scene, the ghost of his former partner Jacob Marley warns the miserly Ebenezer Scrooge that he faces a grim fate, but has one chance of redemption. He’s then visited by three further spirits who show him how.
Just over twenty years later, Victor Hugo’s Les Miserables seized the opportunity to tackle similar themes.
Around 1879-1882, Henri Jules Jean Geoffroy painted this work showing a well-known scene from Les Miserables, of Jean Valjean and Cosette. This shows the hero Valjean when he arrives in Montfermeil on Christmas Eve and discovers young Cosette fetching a pail of water for her abusive guardians the Thénardiers, early in the novel. He walks with her to an inn, where he orders her a meal, and learns about her mistreatment.
It’s relevant that Les Miserables was published while Victor Hugo was in exile on the island of Guernsey, after he had openly declared Emperor Napoleon III a traitor to France, following Napoleon’s seizure of power in 1851. That leads on to my final painting, with greatest relevance to the world today.
In Jacek Malczewski’s Christmas Eve in Siberia from 1892, these men have been deported from their native Poland and imprisoned in the extreme cold and remoteness of Siberia. Although there’s a steaming samovar at the end of the table, they have only had soup and a wedge of bread for their seasonal feast. Following the Polish Uprising in 1863, at least 18,000 were ‘exiled’ to Siberia, many of whom never returned.
This Christmas we should all be thinking of those who, for whatever reason, can’t spend this holiday in safety and comfort with their family.
电脑重装了系统没有抹盘，使用迁移助理恢复数据，因为磁盘空间不足就恢复了一部分，现在看了一下设置中的占用发现基本上占满了，应该是迁移前+迁移后的数据。
https://iili.io/2OkswX4.md.png
其他用户和共享这个分类下面应该是没有文件的，电脑上只有我一个用户，我应该在哪里找到这些文件并删除呢？
| Name | Price (USD) / Month |
|---|---|
| Youtube Premium | 10.04 |
| Youtube Channel Subscription | 20.15 |
| Google Drive Storage (100 GB) | 1.61 |
| iCloud Storage (200 GB) | 2.88 |
| Cursor AI | 20.00 |
Month Total: 54.68 USD
Annual: 656.16 USD
怎么说呢, 用美元月付的时候感觉也没花多少钱, 一算一年要花快 5000 人名币。。。
如题，组里三十个人，已经倒下一片了，全是发高烧🤒
A 应该是能拿到 V6 地址的，目前还未在路由器网关上做配置去获取 V6(RouterOS)
C 目前还没买，觉得好像也必须买个 C 来做辅助？
请教，如果必须自部署一个 C （会有固定 IPV4 地址）
准备做新版本
现在在用小米 13 ，感觉系统 bug 很多、马达震感不强、电池不耐用。
iphone 拍视频和马达震感很好，但之前一直在用安卓系统，一些游戏被绑定到安卓了；并且微信不能双开（最大痛点）。 三星之前没用过，听说比国内手机都要好。可以等 s25 ，担心马达震感不如 iphone 。
不考虑 16pro ，对手机重量有要求。
最近将一个 Spring Boot 项目编译成了 Spring Native 可执行文件，项目启动速度是上来了，但是可执行文件的大小可骤增至 350M 左右，导致 Docker 镜像的大小也一起增加了很多，考虑到 Docker 拉取本身的网络就很坎坷了，我就想有没有办法能再压缩下大小。
最开始的方案是使用 upx, 压缩率不错，压缩后可直接执行，但是发现这个工具是有代价的，因为他是执行时从内存中解压你原本的程序，所以你节省了多少可执行文件大小，就会额外占用多少内存，这对我是不可接受的，我觉得内存更可贵一些，这个方案可能更适合 go 程序使用，本身可执行文件大小不会太大，所以也不会导致增加很多内存占用。
第二个方案是无意中想到的，我能不能自己压缩文件放到镜像中，然后在运行时解压出来再执行，这相较于 upx 的方案来说是在硬盘解压，不会额外占用内存，但是这个要考虑解压的速度（压缩速度不是很重要，可以用 CI/CD 来跑），然后就找到了一个压缩算法 zstd，不论压缩率设置多高，解压缩的时间都是一样的 (如 350M 使用 zstd -19 最高级别，压缩时间 5 分钟，大小可达到 80M 左右，但解压时间仅 0.5 秒)。
然后在 Dockerfile 中给镜像安装 zstd ，并在最后运行时进行判断是否解压：
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FROM debian:10-slim
ARG TARGETARCH
RUN apt update -y && apt install --no-install-recommends zstd -y && apt-get clean && rm -rf /var/lib/apt/lists/* /tmp/* /var/tmp/*
# 省略其他
CMD if [ -f /data/app.zst ]; then zstd --no-progress -d /data/app.zst && rm -rf /data/app.zst && chmod +x /data/app && /data/app --spring.config.location=file:/root/application.properties; else chmod +x /data/app && /data/app --spring.config.location=file:/root/application.properties; fi
不知道这种方式算优雅，还是算丑陋，但至少解决了我的问题，希望也能帮助到有类似需求的人。
