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债券展期未获通过 万科拟再与持有人商议偿付

中国房企巨头万科在一只即将到期的在岸债券展期议案未获通过后,计划召开第二次债券持有人会议,寻求偿付解决方案,以避免违约。

综合路透社和彭博社报道,中国银行间市场交易商协会星期一(12月15日)披露的文件显示,涉及这只20亿元人民币(3.6亿新元)境内债券的会议将在星期四(12月18日)开始,并在下星期一(12月22日)结束投票。

此前,债券持有人拒绝了万科延期一年支付上述债券的计划,这增加了公司的违约风险,并再次引发市场对中国房地产行业危机的担忧。这一债券原定星期一到期,并享有五个工作日的宽限期。

星期一上午,万科香港股票一度下跌5.7%。交易员说,公司美元债交易惨淡,每1美元(1.3新元)面值买价下跌至少3.5美分。

万科就债券展期相关事项对所造成的影响致歉,并称“将与各方诚信沟通和协商,研究并完善方案,继续寻求本期债券的解决方案,维护各方长期共同利益”。

尽管如此,一些分析师仍保持乐观。晨星股权分析师Jeff Zhang说:“我们认为债券持有人可能要求更多信用增强,或提前偿付12月15日到期债券的部分本金。第二种方案接近获批,因此有望在未来五天内达成协议。”

他还指出:“即便是利息支付,万科仍高度依赖外部流动性支持,因此信用风险仍然较高。”

港警引国安条例第13条再捕一女 同案两男被起诉

香港警务处国家安全处再引用《维护国家安全条例》第13条“非法操练”逮捕一名女子,目前累计10人落网。同案的两名男子以串谋颠覆国家政权罪被起诉。

香港警务处国安处星期天(12月14日)通过政府公报发布消息,当局就上星期四(11日)的执法行动,在上星期五(12日)晚上再拘捕一名26岁女子,涉嫌违反《维护国家安全条例》第13条“非法操练”罪。

就早前被捕的九人,香港警务处国安处星期六(13日)落案起诉其中两名分别24岁及25岁男子,他们合共被控一项串谋颠覆国家政权罪。案件将于星期一(15日)上午在西九龙裁判法院提堂。

被捕女子及案中其余被捕人已获淮保释候查,须于2026年1月中旬向警方报到。

香港警务处国安处上星期五通报,上星期四在全港多区拘捕九名年龄介于20至25岁的男子,他们涉嫌违反《维护国家安全条例》第13条“非法操练”罪。

警方调查显示,有团伙于九龙一工厂大厦单位内进行非法操练,包括持枪械操练、刀术及格斗术等。警方搜查涉嫌被用作非法操练的单位,检获怀疑用作非法操练的攻击性武器。被捕人正被扣留调查,警方行动仍然继续。

警方提醒市民,串谋颠覆国家政权属严重罪行,首次定罪可被判处监禁10年以上的有期徒刑,呼吁市民切勿以身试法。

广西一中学教师性侵女学生被判监18年

中国广西官方通报,当地一所中学教师涉性侵女学生被判监18年。

据“百色融媒”微信公众号消息,广西百色市右江区法院星期一(12月15日)通报,该院当天上午依法对被告人唐毓文强奸、强制猥亵刑事附带民事诉讼案进行一审公开宣判。

唐毓文犯强奸罪,判处有期徒刑15年,剥夺政治权利五年;犯强制猥亵罪,判处有期徒刑五年;数罪并罚,决定执行有期徒刑18年,剥夺政治权利五年。同时判处禁止从事密切接触未成年人的工作,依法赔偿被害人父母经济损失。

法院审理查明,唐毓文在担任百色市一所高中班主任期间,于2019年9月至11月,对患有抑郁症的被害女学生实施强奸二次、强制猥亵一次。

2020年6月被害人高中毕业,后到其他学校复读一年,2021年9月考上大学,2023年9月因病退学,2025年1月因抑郁症发作在家自杀身亡。经鉴定,唐毓文的性侵行为虽未直接导致被害人因抑郁症发作而自杀身亡,但对她的病情加重具有影响作用。

法院认为,唐毓文的犯罪行为性质恶劣,后果严重,社会影响极坏,应依法从重处罚。根据唐毓文的犯罪事实、性质、情节和对社会的危害程度,遂依法作出上述判决。

“百色教育”微信公众号今年2月10日发布通报,针对当天下午网上关于百色祈福高级中学教师唐毓文涉嫌师德失范行为的举报信息,百色市政府高度重视,教育、公安等相关部门已组成联合工作组开展调查,并已对唐毓文予以停职处理。

广西百色市联合工作组隔天晚间发布通报称,经调查核实,唐毓文严重违反教师职业道德,百色市有关单位依法依纪唐毓文开除中共党籍、公职。经公安机关立案侦查,已对唐毓文采取刑事强制措施,案件在进一步侦办中。

习近平谈中美贸易战:打出中国人志气骨气底气

中国国家主席习近平谈及中美贸易战时说,这“打出了中国人的志气骨气底气”,彰显中国的硬核实力,并强调对中国的“卡脖子”是卡不住的。

中共中央机关报《人民日报》星期天(12月14日)封面刊登题为“追求实实在在、没有水分的增长”的文章,内容为习近平12月10日在中央经济工作会议上的部分讲话。

谈及“十四五”(2021年至2025年)的亮点,习近平说,“上天入地下海的科技创新成果令人刮目相看。实践证明,对我们‘卡脖子’是卡不住的”,并提到今年前三季度京津冀PM2.5浓度下降,以及中国建成全球最大的可再生能源体系等。

对于未来规划,习近平说:“所有规划都要实事求是,追求实实在在、没有水分的增长,推动高质量、可持续的发展。”

习近平还提到,在风云激荡的关税战、贸易战之下,中国向世界展示了从容自信,“打出了中国人的志气骨气底气,彰显了我们的硬核实力,赢得了国际社会尊重”。

对于“十五五”(2026年至2030年)规划,习近平指出,有些项目可提前开工,但必须以防止无效投资为前提,严防建成即荒废、投资即流产的问题,“对投资下滑,既要高度重视也要沉着冷静”。

Oxfam chief forced to step down over 'serious issues' with conduct, charity says

BBC Dr Halima Begum sitting down wearing a black jacket and colourful top. She has dark, shoulder-length hair.BBC

The chief executive of Oxfam GB has been forced out by the charity's board after an independent review found "serious issues" with her behaviour and decision making.

The organisation's trustees decided Dr Halima Begum's position was "untenable" because of an "irretrievable breakdown in its trust and confidence" in her ability to do the job.

About 70 members of staff had signed a letter calling for Oxfam to investigate Dr Begum's conduct, with several employees said to have resigned after falling out with her, the Times reported.

Dr Begum had been in the role for almost two years. The BBC has contacted her for comment.

In a statement, Oxfam confirmed the review was commissioned by its board of trustees to examine "concerns raised about the leadership, conduct and approach" of Dr Begum.

It said the review was carried out by legal firm Howlett Brown between November and December 2025.

The investigation drew on testimony from 32 current and former Oxfam colleagues, as well as documentary evidence, the charity said.

Findings showed "serious issues in the CEO's leadership behaviour and her decision making, including breaches of organisational processes and values, and inappropriate interference into safeguarding and integrity investigations", it added.

The decision to discharge Dr Begum from her role was passed last week and she has already left the organisation, Oxfam said.

The role of acting chief executive will be taken up by Jan Oldfield, Oxfam's chief supporter officer for more than four years, it added.

Acting co-chairs of Oxfam GB, Nana Afadzinu and Dame Annie Hudson, said their priority going forward was to provide "stability" for staff and "rebuild confidence" across the organisation".

"The Board has taken immediate steps to strengthen oversight and reinforce organisational processes, and work is already underway to address the recommendations in the report," they added.

Dr Begum's departure comes after a difficult year for Oxfam.

Earlier this month, financial figures released by the charity showed profits from its shops had dropped by two thirds over the past three years.

The Oxford-based charity also made 250 of its 2,100 UK staff redundant earlier this year to save £10.2m from its wage bill.

At the time, Dr Begum said the decline was due to the charity's work taking place "against a backdrop of deep uncertainty, rising inflation and a cost-of-living crisis".

悉尼海滩恐袭致15死:多国领袖震惊发声 以色列亦批澳政府

德正
2025-12-14T13:58:21.313Z
邦迪海滩发生的袭击事件造成至少12人死亡、近30人受伤。

(德国之声中文网)当地时间周日(12月14日)傍晚,在澳大利亚邦迪海滩(Bondi Beach)举行的犹太节日活动“海边的光明节”上发生枪击事件,造成至少16人死亡(包含一名枪手)、40人受伤。澳大利亚警方和官员将此事件定性为恐怖袭击。

新南威尔士州警察总监马尔·兰扬(Mal Lanyon)在新闻发布会上表示,一名50岁的枪手被当场击毙,另一名24岁枪手情况危急,正在抢救中,两人为父子关系。

死者中有一名儿童,罹难者年龄介于10岁到87岁。已有42人被送往医院接受治疗,其中包括两名警察。

警方已排除有第三名枪手涉案,同时排爆小组正处理多枚疑似简易爆炸装置。 澳大利亚高级情报官员迈克·伯吉斯(Mike Burgess)此前表示,其中一名嫌疑人此前已在当局监控名单中,但并未被视为迫切威胁。

澳大利亚警方介绍,正在调查是否有第三名枪手涉案。

澳方召开紧急会议

此次枪击事件是自2023年10月以色列与哈马斯战争爆发以来,澳大利亚国内一系列反犹事件中最为严重的一起,之前已有犹太教堂、建筑及车辆遭到攻击。

澳大利亚一向被视为全球最安全的国家之一,大规模枪击案极为罕见。这是自1996年塔斯马尼亚州旅游景点发生35人死亡的枪击案以来,澳大利亚最严重的类似事件。

澳洲总理阿尔巴尼斯召集国家安全委员会紧急会议,并谴责此次袭击,称“这场袭击所展现的邪恶令人难以想象”。“这是一起专门针对澳大利亚犹太人的蓄意袭击,发生在光明节的第一天——原本应是一个充满喜悦与信仰的日子。”阿尔巴尼斯补充道:“在这个国家的黑暗时刻,警方和安全机构正全力追查所有与这场暴行有关的人员。”

混乱之中出英雄

有目击者称,袭击持续约10分钟,数百人在邦迪海滩和附近街道、公园中惊慌逃命。警方表示,仅光明节活动就吸引了约1000人参加。

社交平台X上传出多段视频,显示人群尖叫奔逃、警笛四起。一段视频中,一名身穿白衬衫的男子冲向一名穿深色上衣、手持步枪的男子。他从背后将对方扑倒,徒手夺下其步枪,随后将枪口反指向该男子。视频随后显示,身穿深色上衣的男子站立不稳,向后退向一座桥的方向,而桥上当时还有另一名枪手。与此同时,这名旁观者将枪放在地上。

路透社通过多段经过核实的辅助影像确认了这段视频的真实性,这些画面显示的是同一批男子。路透社还核实,视频中出现的持枪者,与其他经核实影像中被警方包围的嫌疑人是同一批人,依据是他们的服装特征一致。

 

这段记录路人英勇行为的视频迅速在社交媒体上传播开来,许多人称赞该男子的勇气。据路透社报导,该名男子的身分是43岁的艾哈迈德(Ahmed al Ahmed),当天身中两枪后已接受治疗。新南威尔士州州长克里斯·明斯(Chris Minns)表示,这是他“见过最令人难以置信的场面”。他说:“一名男子走向一名刚刚向民众开枪的枪手,独自一人将其缴械,冒着生命危险,拯救了无数人的生命。

以色列政府公开批评

恐袭事件发生后,以色列总统艾萨克·赫尔佐格(Isaac Herzog)表示,那些到海滩点燃光明节第一支蜡烛的犹太人,遭到了“卑劣恐怖分子”的袭击。

以色列外交部长吉迪恩·萨尔(Gideon Saar)对枪击事件表示震惊,并指责澳大利亚政府在多次警告后依然“未能警醒”。 他说:“这是过去两年来澳大利亚街头反犹情绪泛滥的直接后果,‘全球化起义’(Globalise the Intifada)等煽动性口号如今变成了现实。”

多国领导人表态

德国总理梅尔茨(Friedrich Merz, 又译“默茨”)称此次恐袭事件令他“震惊得无言以对”。他在社交平台 X 上发文表示:“这是对我们共同价值观的攻击。我们必须制止反犹主义——无论是在德国,还是在世界各地。”

欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩(Ursula von der Leyen)也表示 “对邦迪海滩的悲剧性袭击深感震惊”,“我向遇难者的家属和亲人致以诚挚慰问”。她在X平台上写道:“欧洲与澳大利亚以及全球犹太社群站在一起。我们团结一致,反对暴力、反犹主义与仇恨。”

英国首相斯塔默表示,针对悉尼犹太人聚会的致命袭击“令人作呕”,并强调:“英国将始终与澳大利亚以及犹太社群站在一起。”

法国总统马克龙谴责这起袭击,并誓言法国将“毫不懈怠地打击反犹仇恨”。

意大利总理梅洛尼在X平台上表示,她对“来自悉尼的悲惨消息深感悲痛”。她补充说:“意大利再次坚定谴责一切形式的暴力和反犹主义,并向遇难者表示哀悼。”

乌克兰总统泽连斯基在X平台上表示,乌克兰“在面对这起发生在悉尼邦迪海滩、针对犹太社区的残忍恐怖袭击时,与澳大利亚站在一起”。他强调:“恐怖与仇恨绝不能得逞——必须在任何地方、任何时候将其击败。”

美国国务卿鲁比奥表示,美国“强烈谴责”邦迪海滩发生的袭击事件。他在X平台上写道:“反犹主义在这个世界上没有立足之地。我们为这起可怕袭击的受害者、犹太社群以及澳大利亚人民祈祷。”

 

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黎智英案宣判:串谋勾结外国势力等三项罪名全部成立

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黎智英案宣判:串谋勾结外国势力等三项罪名全部成立

DAVID PIERSON
黎智英于2020年8月在香港《苹果日报》新闻编辑室。
黎智英于2020年8月在香港《苹果日报》新闻编辑室。 Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times
周一,在对媒体大亨、民主活动人士黎智英进行的里程碑式国家安全案审判中,香港一家法院作出了有罪判决。此案凸显出香港对异见的容忍度正在下降。
香港和中国大陆的官员指控78岁的黎智英是2019年席卷香港这一前英国殖民地的反政府示威活动的主脑,对北京的权威构成了严重挑战。检察官表示,他与包括美国在内的外国政府勾结,对中国和香港实施制裁。
黎智英对两项“串谋勾结外国势力”罪名(最高可判终身监禁)及一项通过其创办的《苹果日报》(现已停刊)发布煽动刊物的罪名均作无罪抗辩。本周一,法庭裁定其三项罪名成立。
他的法律团队主张,随着2020年国家安全法生效,他对制裁的呼吁就终止了。
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香港的“一国两制”法律框架本该保证该地区在2047年之前享有一定程度的自治权和言论自由。但批评者指出,此案揭示了该框架如何被两部回应抗议活动的国家安全法削弱——一部由北京于2020年颁布,另一部由香港政府去年推出。
2022年,香港法院以欺诈罪判处黎智英五年多监禁,称其违反了与《苹果日报》相关的租赁协议条款。该报长期批评北京当局。

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中国11月新房价格持续下跌

官方数据显示,中国11月70个城市新建商品住宅价格环比下降0.4%。图为上海景色。 (法新社)

官方数据显示,中国11月70个城市新建商品住宅价格环比下降0.4%,延续此前下跌趋势,显示尽管政府承诺稳定房地产市场,需求复苏仍未显现。

中国国家统计局星期一(12月15日)公布的数据显示,今年11月,剔除保障性住房的70个城市新建住宅价格环比下降0.4%,10月为下降0.45%;11月二手房价格下降0.66%,与上月持平。

彭博社报道称,由于二手房受政府干预较少,它的下跌更能反映市场真实状况。

花旗集团分析师上周在报告中指出,中国楼市在2026年可能面临严酷现实,除非流动性改善,否则全国房屋销售额明年预计将进一步下降约11%。瑞银集团中国房地产研究负责人John Lam则认为,房价至少还将下跌两年。

惠誉评级在10月警告,新建住宅销售面积在行业企稳前可能再下降15%至20%,显示银行房地产相关不良贷款明年可能仍将维持“高位”。

中国消费品零售总额增速11月放缓

官方数据显示,中国消费品零售总额增速在11月放缓。图为中国南京一座购物中心,摄于12月12日。 (路透社)

官方数据显示,中国消费品零售总额增速在11月放缓。

中国国家统计局星期一(12月15日)在官网公布,社会消费品零售总额增速从10月的2.9%,放缓至11月的1.3%,低于路透社调查预测的2.8%。

1—11月份全国固定资产投资(不含农户)同比下降2.6%,1-10月份则是下滑1.7%。经济师预测的跌幅为2.3%。

规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长在11月为4.8%,低于路透社经展开调查后预测的5.0%。10月份的增幅为4.9%。

中国沙特同意加强全方位合作 推动地区与国际事务

中国外长王毅访问沙特阿拉伯期间,双方同意加强全方位互利合作,在地区和国际事务上加强沟通与协调,并呼吁推动解决巴勒斯坦问题。

据中国外交部网站消息,王毅星期天(12月15日)在利雅得与沙特王储兼首相穆罕默德会面,称中国愿做沙特国家振兴进程中最可信赖、最可依靠的伙伴,同沙方加强全方位互利合作,巩固传统能源合作,拓展新兴产业、未来产业合作,为中沙全面战略伙伴关系开辟新前景。

王毅同日还与沙特外交大臣费萨尔主持召开中沙高级别联合委员会政治分委会第五次会议。他说,中沙互为重要经贸合作伙伴,双方要加强能源、投资等传统领域合作,拓展新能源、绿色转型等新领域合作,打造更多可视化成果。

王毅说,中国欢迎沙特企业加大对华投资,支持中企赴沙特投资兴业,也希望沙特继续为中国企业提供良好营商环境,并呼吁双方要密切文化、旅游等领域交流,进一步便利人员往来,增进相互了解,深化中沙兄弟情谊。

根据中方新闻稿,双方还就共同关心的地区和国际问题交换意见,称将加强沟通和协调。双方强调支持根据“两国方案”原则、联合国有关决议、“阿拉伯和平倡议”,努力推动实现巴勒斯坦问题全面、公正解决,在1967年边界基础上建立以东耶路撒冷为首都的独立的巴勒斯坦国。

日自卫队前幕僚长获聘任台行政院顾问 被大陆实施制裁

日本自卫队前统合幕僚长岩崎茂获聘任台行政院顾问,被中国大陆实施制裁。

据中国央视新闻客户端报道,中国大陆外交部星期一(12月15日)公告,将从即日起,对岩崎茂实施制裁,理由是他同“台独”分裂势力勾连,严重违背一个中国原则和中日四个政治文件精神,严重干涉中国内政,严重损害中国主权和领土完整。

依据《中华人民共和国反外国制裁法》相关规定,中国大陆决定冻结岩崎茂在大陆境内的动产、不动产和其它各类财产;禁止境内组织、个人与他进行有关交易、合作等活动;对他不予签发签证、不准入境(包括香港、澳门)。

黎智英被控违反国安法等三罪 均判罪成

香港壹传媒创办人黎智英及3间《苹果日报》公司被控违反国安法两项“串谋勾结外国势力”、及一项“串谋发布煽动刊物“罪案件,15日上午10时于西九龙裁判法院判决,三件被控罪名均判罪成。

综合外电报道,黎智英与壹传媒旗下3家公司各被控一项《港区国安法》的“串谋勾结外国或者境外势力危害国家安全”罪,及一项刑事“串谋刊印、发布、邀约发售、分发、展示及或复制煽动刊物”罪。黎智英再被控另一项“串谋勾结外国或者境外势力危害国家安全”罪。

法官指,法庭信纳黎是指控串谋的主脑,在实行串谋行为时,利用苹果不同平台,并得到公司同意。

黎戴上耳机,听闻裁决时神情平静,亦不时望向法官及家人。

被控公司为苹果日报有限公司、苹果日报印刷有限公司和苹果日报互联网有限公司。而黎智英又因为卷入“反送中”运动支持者、“香港故事”成员李宇轩的案件,被加控一项串谋勾结外国势力罪。

法庭定于明年1月12日安排求情,需时4天。法官表示,求情完成后,再订判刑日期。

这起案件从2020年开始,一直备受国际社会关注,开庭前吸引了大批记者到埸采访,现埸有众多警员戒备。逾百名市民在庭外排队等候入庭旁听。

黎智英的女儿黎采9日曾投书华盛顿邮报,指父亲的健康在狱中急剧恶化,过去几年在探监和旁听审讯时,她近距离观察到父亲指甲脱落、牙齿腐烂、眼睛充血,去年6月上庭时更脸色苍白、不断颤抖。她指出若中国政府不释放父亲,他很有可能成为自由的烈士,更透露若父亲获释,将离开香港,他“为正义奔走的时日已经结束,他只希望与家人和平地度过余生。”

© Reuters

黎智英被控国安法案15日判决。图为2021年其出庭时情况。

美国特种作战小组登船扣押自中国运往伊朗货物

简繁中文
纽约时报 出版语言
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美国特种作战小组登船扣押自中国运往伊朗货物

CHRIS CAMERON, ERIC SCHMITT
深圳盐田港。美国一直在追踪这批从中国运往伊朗的货物。
深圳盐田港。美国一直在追踪这批从中国运往伊朗的货物。 Tingshu Wang/Reuters
一名美国官员表示,一支美国特种作战小组上月在印度洋登上一艘船,扣押了从中国运往伊朗的货物。这是一次罕见的海上行动,目的是阻止德黑兰重建其武器库。
《华尔街日报》最先报道了这起扣押事件,当时伊朗和美国正就其核武器计划陷入战略僵局
今年夏天,伊朗与以色列和美国进行了一场短暂的战争,在12天的激烈远程导弹和空袭中,有1000多人丧生。在那场战争中,一支美国隐形轰炸机编队袭击了伊朗的核设施,美国官员称此举“大大削弱了”伊朗的核武器计划,但地区官员和分析人士担心,冲突重燃是不可避免的。
这名美国官员说,美国一直在跟踪这批货物从中国运往伊朗的过程,因为没有被授权公开发言,这名官员要求匿名。当美国特种作战部队发起行动时,这艘船正在离斯里兰卡海岸约几百公里的地方航行。突击队员登上这艘船,没收了船上的货物,然后让船只继续航行。
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目前尚不清楚这艘船究竟装载了什么,但该官员称,货物包含可用于民用或制造常规武器的两用部件。此次登船检查发生在近期委内瑞拉近海扣押油轮事件数周之前。
负责该地区军事行动的美国印太司令部发言人拒绝置评。
伊朗的工厂正在夜以继日地补充可用于袭击以色列的远程导弹和无人机的库存。在今年夏天的战争中,伊朗曾试图以数量优势压倒以色列的防空网络,而且很可能会寻求进口零部件,在新的冲突爆发之前制造尽可能多的新武器。
美国正不断加强对两用商品的管控,特别是制造制导武器系统和远程无人机所需的微电子和软件。由于这些部件在非军事领域具有合理用途,许多此类产品很难被明确禁止或禁运。
乌克兰战争期间,美国官员曾试图阻断中国企业向俄罗斯运输此类商品。但这种努力从未升级为针对商业航运的军事行动。

Chris Cameron是《纽约时报》记者,报道华盛顿新闻,主要关注突发新闻和特朗普政府新闻。

Eric Schmitt是《纽约时报》国家安全记者,主要关注美军事务以及海外反恐议题,他报道此类新闻已超过30年。

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为了这个镜头,好莱坞砸了数十万美金,而你只需要一个快门

《花样年华》里,苏丽珍穿着一身繁复的旗袍,提着老式的铝制保温壶,下楼去买云吞面。

这本是一件琐碎小事,但在王家卫的慢镜头里,旗袍摇曳的幅度和那一低头的落寞,都被放慢的时间镀上了一层金边。

现实里的时钟是无情的匀速,导演之所以伟大,是因为他利用慢动作打破了这种匀速,把心里的感觉具象化了。慢动作,是导演手里的聚光灯,它在宣告:别看别处,看着她。

这种「特权」的巅峰,在格莱美的红毯上。

在格莱美的颁奖礼上,不论是 Lady Gaga 霸气地甩动裙摆,还是 Ariana Grande 俏皮的回眸,在放慢的时间下,都呈现出一种惊人的质感:

前半段是常速的准备动作,中间突然降速,发丝在空中悬停,裙摆像花瓣一样绽开,眼神里的光被无限放大。

那一刻,她们不像是在走红毯,更像是神祇降临人间。

但为了留住这几秒钟的「神性」,好莱坞付出了奢侈的代价——那是一台名为 Bolt Cinebot 的高速机械臂系统。这头重达几百公斤、造价几十万美金的钢铁怪兽,通常只有顶流巨星才配享用。

这就是过去拥有「高光」的门槛——沉重的、昂贵的,且遥不可及的。

那时候,我们只能作为观众,隔着屏幕羡慕这种「主角光环」,但难免在心里嘀咕:

难道我的青春,只有平铺直叙,不能拥有一秒钟的「格莱美时刻」吗?

把几十万的机械臂,装进口袋里

影像技术的发展很有意思,它总是先服务于极少数人,然后在一个平常的早晨,突然来到所有人手上。

vivo S50 做了一件很「讨巧」、但也很大胆的事——不再满足于拍一张清晰的照片,也不再满足于拍一张会动的实况照片,而是把几十万美金的机械臂、格莱美红毯的运镜逻辑,塞进了这个只有几毫米厚的机身里,并给这个功能起了一个很贴切的名字——「高光慢动作」。

把这种工业级的审美特权下放,最难的从来不是技术移植,而是如何让普通人也能「零门槛」上手。

vivo S50 的答案很直接:消灭所有操作与参数,不需要你懂什么叫光流法,不需要你研究什么叫帧率,也不需要你像个专业剪辑师一样回家用电脑打关键帧,只需要做主角,剩下的脏活累活,全都丢给手机。

这就是我拿到 vivo S50 后,觉得最惊喜的地方——极度的「傻瓜化」。

在这个人人喊着「AI 赋能」的时代,vivo 选择用 AI 来做减法。

拿起 S50,唤醒相机,切到你最熟悉的实况模式,你会发现在这里,多了一个通往格莱美的入口,点开它,屏幕上会出现一个简洁的提示框,向你发出一句无声的导演指令:

来,请在这个位置,准备你的高光时刻。

你要做的非常简单:把脸放进那个框里。

不需要你去预判快门时机,也不用担心手抖,只需要按下拍摄键,后台不知疲倦的芯片开始飞速运转,在随后几秒钟里,AI 就像一位经验丰富的剪辑师,在几毫秒内把画面拆解、分析,计算风吹过发丝的最佳速度,寻找眼神光最亮的那一帧。

最后,在最恰当的节点,把时间的流速降下来、再自然地恢复常速。

这些原本需要在电脑前耗费数小时的后期工程,都发生在你毫无感知的后台,在短暂等待后,一条「前段自然铺垫,后段华丽慢放」的格莱美级短片,就已经生成完毕了。

使用 vivo S50 拍摄

当然,年轻的眼光总是挑剔的——光有节奏感还不够,我们寻求的是真正省心的全套服务。

大家为什么现在越来越不喜欢高清数码味?——太假、太锐利、太没有温度。

所以,除了让你变慢的魔法,vivo S50 还藏了两个杀手锏,专门解决「味道」的问题。

首先,它要守住你颜值的底线。

不知道你有没有这种困扰:很多手机的实况照片,虽然动起来了,但脸上的磨皮重得像个塑料假人,或者白得像刚刷了墙。

这很不酷,现在的审美,要的是「原生感」。

vivo S50 的「清透自然人像」技术,守住的是质感的底线,拒绝那种假惺惺的死白磨皮,保留了皮肤真实的纹理和质感。

你的毛孔是会呼吸的,你的雀斑是可爱的,你的肤色是健康的,vivo S50 只负责把光打好,把气色提亮,但那个鲜活的、真实的你,它一点都没动。

使用 vivo S50 拍摄

有了这张干净通透的「底」,接下来才是真正的重头戏——「四大 CCD 滤镜」。

这几年 Y2K 复古潮回流,CCD 相机被炒到了天价,仿佛回到千禧年的低像素、高颗粒感,本身就是一种情绪,而 vivo 直接把这种情绪做进了手机里,而且一口气给了你多种选择。

当你套上这些滤镜,画面瞬间就有了一种胶片电影的质感,「假日」来自富士胶片模拟,给出红橙绿青的答案,「暖光」则沿袭柯达经典负片的影调,「胶片蓝/绿」取材于理光的正负片滤镜,无论什么风格,只要你喜欢,这里都有。

使用 vivo S50 假日滤镜拍摄

不需要你去闲鱼高价淘老相机,也不用忍受繁琐的导图流程。在这里,迷人的复古颗粒感和最先进的 AI 算法达成了一种奇妙的共识。

懒人美学的胜利

「高光慢动作」的节奏、「CCD 滤镜」的色调、「清透自然人像」的质感。

把这三样东西加在一起,你会得到一种「懒人美学」的极致胜利。

在这里,懒是一种不带贬义的松弛——刻意雕琢的精致,往往带着一股紧绷感;而真正动人的,往往是那种举重若轻的随手拍。

这是一个「精致疲劳」的时代。我们想要好看,但我们更想要毫不费力地好看。

于是,vivo S50 没打算给你上摄影课——不教育你如何构图,也不强迫你学习摄影理论,你想怎么按快门,就怎么按快门;然后又把原本需要你导入电脑、用 PR 剪辑、用 AE 做变速、再进 PS 调色的复杂流程,折叠进后台,在 AI 的帮助下,一键成片。

从这个角度来看,这种懒人美学,其实很贴合影像的进化——绘画用了几千年去描摹皮囊,摄影用了几百年去复刻真实,但人心的进化远比技术狂野,我们早已不满足于仅仅更方便地证明「我来过」,我们渴望的是「我耀眼过,且耀眼得轻盈」。

使用 vivo S50 拍摄

回到开头那个《花样年华》的故事。

如果苏丽珍手里有一台 vivo S50,她还需要等待王家卫来喊 Action 吗?

我想她不需要。

我们每个人,其实都是自己这部人生长镜头的导演,只是很多时候,我们被琐碎的日常淹没,忘了自己原本可以很耀眼。

使用 vivo S50 拍摄

此时,vivo S50 是一个可以把时间揉碎了、捏慢了、再重新上色的工具,提醒我们:生活大多时候是常速流逝的流水账,但总有那么几个瞬间,值得我们按下「慢放键」,好好端详。

不需要多么宏大的场景,也不需要多么昂贵的道具,哪怕只是下楼便利店买的一瓶汽水,只要节奏对了,光影对了,就是属于你一个人的电影时刻。

下次拍照,试着让时间慢一点,毕竟,在这平庸的匀速世界里,只有你能决定,哪一刻值得被拉长。

让我有个美满旅程

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河南省委书记与印乐法师交流:维护好少林寺声誉形象

中共河南省委书记刘宁在与少林寺主持印乐法师交流时,希望宗教界人士处理好少林寺和少林文化的关系,维护好少林寺的声誉和形象。

据《河南日报》微信公众号消息,河南省委书记刘宁星期天(12月14日)到郑州市登封市嵩山少林景区调研检查文旅市场发展情况,强调要深入学习中共二十届四中全会和中央经济工作会议精神,贯彻落实中共总书记习近平在河南考察时重要讲话精神,坚持把文旅事业高质量发展摆在突出位置来抓,全方位提升游客服务质量水平,营造更安全有序的文旅市场环境,让广大游客乘兴而来满意而归。

刘宁到景区主要游览点,察看游客服务设施场所,实地检查景区管理、安全保障、便民服务等情况时强调,要强化游客至上、服务至上理念,提升管理服务效能,不断丰富体验场景,让广大游客更好触摸历史脉搏、体验文化魅力。要加强综合监督管理,畅通举报投诉渠道,针对游客反映强烈的突出问题,加大执法检查力度,严肃查处违法违规行为,保障游客合法权益。

刘宁还与少林寺住持印乐法师深入交流,希望宗教界人士坚持中国宗教中国化方向,带头守法遵规、严持戒律,不断提升宗教修为,处理好少林寺和少林文化的关系,厘清少林寺和嵩山景区、文旅开发的界限,回归宗教本真,维护好少林寺的声誉和形象。要理顺体制机制,强化规范管理,加强文物保护,警惕冬季干燥火灾易发高发,落实落细消防安全措施。

中国古刹河南嵩山少林寺原住持释永信上月因涉嫌职务侵占、挪用资金和受贿三宗罪被捕。中国佛教协会12月2日召开会议,要求强化制度执行与权威,严肃处理违规犯戒行为,清理害群之马,维护佛教健康肌体。

五个月女婴在宁波心脏手术离世 多人被免职

一名五个月大的女婴在中国宁波一所医院接受心脏手术后不幸离世。当地官方通报称,手术存在操作过失、术中突发情况未及时告知家属,医院分管副院长等多人已被免职。

今年11月14日,一名五个月大的早产儿在宁波大学附属妇女儿童医院接受心脏房间隔缺损手术时离世。事发后,女婴母亲邓女士在社交平台发文质疑手术过程及相关医生,称术前预估手术时间为2.5至3小时,但实际手术持续7小时10分钟,连同进出手术室总时长达9小时。

宁波大学附属妇女儿童医院随后回应称,已对涉事医生展开调查,并将配合患者家属依法维权;宁波市卫生健康委也成立调查组,就此事进行彻查。

宁波市卫生健康委员会星期天(12月14日)发布情况通报称,调查组通过调取资料、实地核查、谈话询问等方式开展全面调查,对发现的病历违规问题立案调查,对医疗责任问题启动医疗事故技术鉴定程序,委托患儿家属指定的湖北崇新司法鉴定中心进行尸检。

根据通报,医疗团队对手术风险评估不足、手术操作存在过失、术中出现突发情况未及时告知、术后监护处置有缺陷,具体医疗过错及其责任程度需在医疗事故技术鉴定等完成后予以明确;医院存在医疗质量安全制度落实不到位、风险防范能力不足、应急处置不力、人文关怀缺乏等问题。

通报称,宁波卫健委给予妇儿医院党委书记警告处分、院长记大过处分,给予分管副院长免职处理。妇儿医院免去主刀医师外二科(心胸)主任职务、暂停其诊疗活动;免去麻醉医师的科主任职务、暂停其诊疗活动;暂停儿童重症监护病房主管医师诊疗活动。接下来将根据医疗事故技术鉴定结果对相关人员依法依规严肃处理。

通报在回应家属和网民关切时指出,主刀医师1994年7月毕业于温州医学院儿科医学专业,2014年1月被聘为小儿外科学主任医师,具备开展此次手术的资质。

通报还提到,患儿手术所在手术间配备两个监控摄像头,其中一个为实时监控的广角全景摄像头,但未配置存储介质,不具备回放功能;相关设备已在全程公证下由公安机关完成勘验。另一个摄像头专用于麻醉车监控,配置存储介质,可回放视频。同手术室的其他手术间监控设备配置相同。医院儿童重症监护病房病室内未安装摄像设备。上述监控配置均符合相关规定。

宁波卫健委在通报中再次向家属表示深切慰问和诚挚歉意,并称将深刻吸取教训,切实加强全市医疗卫生行业规范化管理,开展医疗质量安全专项整治,全面排查风险隐患,对存在的问题认真整改。

目前,家属已采取维权行动。11月27日,属地公安机关受理女婴家属报案;12月12日,法院受理家属提出的诉讼。

中国卫健委司长级官员出席韩中日卫生部长会议

中国派出卫健委司长级官员出席星期天在韩国首尔举行的韩中日卫生部长会议。

综合韩联社和韩国纽斯频通讯社报道,韩国保健福祉部星期天(12月14日)在首尔召开第18次韩中日卫生部长会议,商定加强三国之间的卫生领域合作。

这次会议由韩国保健福祉部长官郑银敬担任主席,中国国家卫生健康委员会国际合作司负责人冯勇、日本厚生劳动大臣上野贤一郎分别作为中日首席代表出席。世界卫生组织(WHO)西太平洋区域办事处(WPRO)及韩中日三国合作秘书处(TCS)以观察员身份与会。

郑银敬在开幕致辞时说:“过去18年积累的三国卫生合作延续性与信任是极其宝贵的资产,在人工智能(AI)与数字技术引领的医疗环境变化、老龄化与慢性病增加等共同挑战下,三国合作的意义正日益增大。”

三国首席代表围绕全民健康覆盖(UHC)、健康老龄化和精神健康三大议题,分享各国政策经验,并就合作方案进行讨论。

三国一致认同AI与数字技术是提升基本医疗服务可及性与公平性的核心手段,并商定优先加强面向医疗资源匮乏地区的数字医疗合作。

为共同应对人口老龄化,三国同意支持构建基于全生命周期的综合照护体系。在精神健康领域,三国将预防自杀设为最优先公共卫生课题,并将早起识别高危人群与及时干预体系建设作为首要任务。为加强预防自杀能力,三国商定扩大AI预测诊断技术等数字技术的应用范围。

三国代表在会议结束时通过了《第18次韩中日卫生部长会议联合声明》,同意持续加强卫生领域合作。

据日本共同社早前报道,中国将不会派部长参加上述会议。据悉,相关决定与日本首相高市早苗11月7日“台湾有事”论不无关系。中国也在中日韩文化部长会议举行一周通知韩日两国会议延期,但未说明理由。会议原定11月24日在澳门召开。明年1月在日本举行的三国首脑会议也据报取消。

防长警告兵推“每次都输”:美军机密报告预测台海开战中国将获胜 - RFI - 法国国际广播电台

15/12/2025 - 01:59

法国BFM电视财经台周日(12月14日)针对台海危机专题报道称,根据《纽约时报》披露的一份机密文件,美国军方在保卫台湾时可能会失败,并且在与中国的军事对抗中遭遇险境。其尖端装备,特别是其最大的航空母舰,面临被摧毁的风险。

法国BFM电视财经台报道指,美国对自身的军事实力产生了疑虑。在五角大楼围绕台湾进行的战争模拟中,“我们每次都输”给中国,如今在美国总统特朗普手下担任国防部长的赫格塞斯去年曾直言不讳地发出这样的警告。而这一次,警报来自一份名为《Overmatch Brief》的机密文件,该报告于本周由《纽约时报》披露。

根据这份国防部在2021年提交给白宫的机密文件,该文件基于与中国对抗的兵推情景,美国军方在保卫台湾时的风险极高,并可能导致军事失败。据《纽约时报》报道,当时拜登总统的一位高级国家安全顾问审阅了这些桌面兵推的结果。据一位目击者称,这位官员在意识到局势的严峻程度后“脸色煞白”。

这位官员向《纽约时报》透露,他惊愕地说:“对于我们手中的每一个计策,中国人都有重复的备用方案。”

如何解释世界上最强大的军队会受到中国的威胁?这份报告描绘了一幅不利的权力平衡图景,并强调美国这个超级大国实际上被其自身耗资巨大的武器库蒙蔽了双眼。五角大楼依赖技术先进但极其昂贵的武器系统,而中国则专注于大规模生产廉价武器系统。桌面兵推结果既简单又令人震惊:北京拥有无数种替代方案,可以替代美国自认为拥有的每一种军事资产。

航母“福特号”的脆弱性

报告特别引起美国决策者对其尖端装备脆弱性的关注。报告尤其警告说,中国凭借其600枚高超音速导弹,可能在“福特号”(Gerald R. Ford)航空母舰——美国海军的旗舰——尚未抵达台湾之前就将其摧毁。

“福特号”航母于2017年服役,目前部署在加勒比海,造价高达130亿美元。该舰能够搭载四个中队的战斗机和5000名水兵,被设计为美国海军战略的核心要素。“福特号”是世界上最先进的航空母舰,象征着美国对全球所有海洋的霸权。

《纽约时报》略带讥讽地评论道:“在《Overmatch》报告所述的军事推演中,像‘福特号’这样的舰船经常被摧毁。然而,海军计划在未来几十年内再建造至少九艘‘福特’级航母。而到目前为止,美国甚至还没有部署任何高超音速导弹。” 纽时将其称之为“概念上的失败”。

法媒报道也同样地提及这份机密报告表明,“五角大楼过度依赖昂贵且易受攻击的武器,而其对手却正在部署廉价且技术先进的武器”。

美国的防御部署主要是为对付较弱的对手而设计的,因此“不可避免地容易受到新型攻击形式的打击”。这份机密报告还强调,美国目前缺乏以支持与大国进行长期冲突所需的速度生产武器和弹药的能力。更何况,美国已投入资源支持乌克兰和以色列。

“不可持续的美国防务战略”

这一结论主要得到了来自乌克兰前线反馈的支持。近年来,要求对美国军事战略进行深刻改革的呼声日益增多。

2023年,为美军提供咨询的兰德公司(Rand Corporation)智库估计,“美国的战略和防御部署已变得不可持续”。该智库认为:“自冷战结束以来,这项战略一直依赖于在全球部署压倒性武力,以彻底击败任何敌人。但多年的战争模拟却表明,这种方法在面对中国,甚至俄罗斯时,都是无效的。”

华盛顿现在正试图迎头赶上:国会已拨款10亿美元用于生产34万架小型无人机,特朗普也任命了一位“无人机首席战略顾问”来监督这项工作。不过,专家警告说,美国永远无法在成本效益方面战胜中国,因为中国的工资更低,监管也更宽松。

法国BFM电视财经台指出,自重返执政以来,特朗普一直对其在台湾受到攻击时支持台湾的决心保持模糊。11月初,他声称习近平理解中国“入侵台湾的后果”,但拒绝明确说明美国是否会进行干预。

另值得关注的是,不同于这份美军机密报告的推论,由美国智库战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)在2023年发布的其他模拟,则得出结论认为,如果发生冲突,美国将占优势。在改智库所研究的24个情景中,美国、台湾和日本在大多数情况下都成功击退了中国的常规两栖入侵,但代价是“巨大的人员和财务成本

2027真相之年?

对中国领导人习近平而言,台湾回归中国大陆是“历史的必然”。报道称,他设定了2027年的最后期限,并命令军队做好大规模两栖作战的准备。

但也有分析人士认为,习近平只有在确信能够迅速取得压倒性胜利时才会采取行动;失败将意味着他领导中国政府的终结。

Russia poses acute threat, new MI6 chief to warn

UK Foreign Office/AP Frontal portrait of Blaise Metreweli. She is looking at the camera against a white background. UK Foreign Office/AP
Blaise Metreweli is the first woman to head Britain's overseas spy agency

The new chief of MI6, Blaise Metreweli, will warn of "the acute threat posed by Russia" when she makes her first public speech later.

She will highlight so-called hybrid warfare, which includes incidents such as cyber attacks and drones suspected of being launched near critical infrastructure by Russian proxies.

Ms Metreweli will describe this as "an acute threat posed by an aggressive, expansionist and revisionist Russia".

Referring to the war in Ukraine, she will insist that Britain will be keeping up the pressure on President Vladimir Putin on Ukraine's behalf.

Ms Metreweli, who took over as head of the Secret Intelligence Service in the autumn, is the first woman to head Britain's overseas spy agency. She took over from Sir Richard Moore on 1 October.

Monday's speech will point to the recent sanctioning of Russian entities accused of conducting information warfare, as well as two China-based companies sanctioned for their "indiscriminate cyber activities against the UK and its allies".

Western sanctions have certainly damaged Russia's economy, driving its exports eastwards towards China and India. But they have singularly failed to change President Putin's determination to wage war on Ukraine until it gives in to his demands for territory and ultimately, loyalty to Moscow.

It is also clear from Ms Metreweli's speech that a special area of interest for the new spy chief is technology.

Having joined MI6 in 1999, she has arrived at the top job via Q Branch. Named after the fictional MI6 division in Ian Fleming's spy books, this is the real life, in-house, top secret part of the Secret Intelligence Service that designs the sorts of gadgets and gizmos that enable agents to communicate with their handlers, without being detected and caught.

In her speech later she is expected to call on all her intelligence officers to master technology, "not just in our labs, but in the field, in our tradecraft.. We must be as comfortable with lines of [computer] code as we are with human sources, as fluent in Python as we are in multiple languages".

Python, a programming language, may surprise some as an example to pick, since it has been around for more than three decades. But her point will not be lost on the men and women who have chosen to work in the shadowy world of espionage.

In an age where data is key, where spies can no longer rely on false identities when biometric scanning can unmask them in seconds at borders and checkpoints, MI6 needs to prove that it can still be relevant.

Elsewhere, the Chief of the Defence Staff, Sir Richard Knighton, will on Monday call for a "whole of society approach" to building national resilience, in the face of growing threats and uncertainty.

In a speech to the Royal United Services Institute in London, Sir Richard is expected to say that defence and resilience need to be a higher priority for everyone, not just those in the military.

It is the latest in a string of warnings that the UK needs to be more ready than it is now to meet a growing volume of threats.

Sir Richard is expected to say that the situation is more dangerous than he has known during his entire career.

Russia has made it clear that it wishes to challenge, limit, divide and ultimately destroy Nato, he will say.

Britain's response needs to be about more than simply strengthening the armed forces. Deterrence, he will say, involves harnessing the UK's power, from its universities to industry, the rail network and the NHS.

"A new era for defence doesn't just mean our military and government stepping up - as we are - it means our whole nation stepping up," he will say.

Addressing a skills gap highlighted in a recent report by the Royal Academy of Engineering, Sir Richard will talk about the need to work with industry and young people and will announce £50m for new defence technical excellence colleges.

In recent weeks, both France and Germany have outlined plans for voluntary national service.

Last year, the then-Conservative government set out its own compulsory proposals, which Labour dismissed as a gimmick.

But the debate about how Britain as a whole should respond to an increasingly uncertain world is gathering pace.

The difficult question of what it would take to stop Putin fighting in Ukraine

BBC A treated image showing Putin with Zelensky in the forefront BBC

Vladimir Putin may have a reputation among some as a ruthless autocrat, a master manipulator of the international scene. But one thing Russia's president does not have is a poker face.

The late US Senator John McCain used to joke that when he looked into Putin's eyes, he saw three things, "a K and a G and a B", a reference to his past life as a Soviet intelligence officer.

I thought of this as I watched footage of Russia's leader sitting opposite American envoys in the Kremlin. He could not hide his emotions; he exuded an air of supreme confidence.

For President Putin reckons the diplomatic tide has turned in his favour, with an improved relationship with America and gains on the battlefield.

Some analysts say Putin has no incentive to retreat from his demands: that Ukraine gives up the last 20% of Donetsk it still controls; that all occupied territory is recognised internationally as Russian; that Ukraine's army is curtailed to a point of impotence; and Nato membership is ruled out forever.

As things stand, there are a few possible scenarios. The first is that US President Donald Trump may try to force Ukraine into a ceasefire on terms unwelcome to its people, one that cedes territory and lacks sufficient security guarantees to deter future Russian aggression.

If Ukraine demurs or Russia vetoes, President Trump has hinted he could wash his hands of the war; last week, he said "sometimes you have to let people fight it out".

AFP via Getty Images US President Donald Trump greets Russian President Vladimir Putin 

AFP via Getty Images
The Trump administration's new national security strategy urged the US to 're-establish strategic stability' with Russia

He could remove the vital US intelligence Ukraine needs to detect incoming Russian drones and target Russian energy facilities.

Another possibility is that the war could just stumble on with Russia's forces continuing to make slow advances in the east.

The Trump administration's new national security strategy implied that Russia is no longer an "existential threat" to the US, and urged the US to "re-establish strategic stability" with Russia.

So, with American support for Ukraine in serious question, what - if anything - could potentially change Putin's mind? And what else could Ukraine, Europe and even China, do differently?

Could Europe do more?

At the moment, the continent is preparing for a ceasefire. Under the banner of the "coalition of the willing", it is preparing an international military force to help Ukraine deter future Russian invasion, alongside a financial effort to help reconstruct the war-ravaged country.

But some officials suggest that Europe should instead prepare for the war to muddle on.

They want to help Ukraine not only "win the fight tonight", with more drones and cash; but also provide longer term support and prepare for a 15 to 20 year war with Russia.

A map of areas of Russian military control in Ukraine

Europe could also do more to help protect Ukrainian skies from drones and missiles. There is already a plan – called the European Sky Shield Initiative – which could be expanded to allow European air defences to protect western Ukraine.

Others argue European troops could be deployed to western Ukraine to help patrol borders, freeing up Ukrainian soldiers to fight on the front line. Most proposals such as this have been rejected for fear of provoking Russia or escalating the conflict.

Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow at the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House think tank, said these fears were based on "nonsense" because Western troops were already present on the ground and Sky Shield could be deployed in western Ukraine with little chance of any clash with Russian aircraft.

European leaders, in his view, had to "insert themselves into the conflict in a manner that will actually make a difference".

WPA Pool/Getty Images (left to right) British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk

WPA Pool/Getty Images
Zelensky has offered to drop Ukraine's aspirations to join the NATO military alliance, according to some reports on Sunday. (Pictured: Starmer with Zelensky, Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz and Donald Tusk)

Mr Giles said: "The only thing that will unarguably, undeniably stop Russian aggression is the presence of sufficiently strong western forces where Russia wants to attack, and the demonstrated will and resolve that they will be used to defend."

This strategy would of course come with huge political difficulty - with some voters in western Europe unwilling to risk a confrontation with Russia.

Few analysts expect Ukraine to reverse the tide and make actual territorial gains of its own.

Having spent several weeks in Ukraine recently, I heard no mention of any Spring offensive, only the need to slow Russia's advance and increase the price it pays in blood and treasure.

Some western diplomats claim Russia's generals are lying to the Russian president, pretending the situation on the ground is better than it is - adding to what they see as a deliberate strategy to exaggerate Russian gains, designed to suggest Ukraine is on the back foot and should thus sue for peace.

According to Thomas Graham in Foreign Affairs, in this year, Russia has seized only 1% of Ukrainian territory at a cost of more than 200,000 dead and wounded.

AFP via Getty Images Infantry recruits take cover from a grenade blast as they undergo a basic training course

AFP via Getty Images
'It is remarkable they [Ukraine] have held off for so long, not least fighting with one hand behind their back,' says Fiona Hill

Fiona Hill, senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution, who served on Trump's national security council during his first term, says the biggest thing Putin has in his favour is that many people believe Ukraine is losing.

"Everyone is talking of Ukraine as the loser when it now has the most potent military in Europe," she says.

"Just think what they have done to Russia. It is remarkable they have held off for so long not least fighting with one hand behind their back."

Trade, sanctions and Russia's economy

Then there's the lever of sanctions. Certainly, Russia's economy is suffering. Inflation at 8%, interest rates 16%, growth slowed, budget deficits soaring, real incomes plunging, consumer taxes rising.

A report for the Peace and Conflict Resolution Evidence Platform says Russia's war economy is running out of time. "The Russian economy is substantially less able to finance the war than it was at the beginning of it in 2022," the authors say.

But so far none of this appears to have changed much Kremlin thinking, not least because businesses have found ways of evading restrictions, such as transporting oil on unregistered ghost ships.

Sputnik/Alexander Kazakov/Pool via Reuters Russian President Vladimir Putin in a slight smile
Sputnik/Alexander Kazakov/Pool via Reuters
In this year alone, Russia has seized 1% of Ukrainian territory at a cost of more than 200,000 dead and wounded, according to Thomas Graham in Foreign Affairs

Tom Keatinge, director of the Centre for Finance and Security at Rusi, said western messaging about sanctions was convoluted and there were too many loopholes.

Russia would, he said, work around recent US sanctions on two Russian oil giants, Lukoil and Rosneft, just by re-labelling the exported oil as coming from non-sanctioned companies.

Mr Keatinge said if the West really wanted to hurt Russia's war economy, it would embargo all Russian oil and fully implement secondary sanctions on countries that still buy it. "We need to stop being cute and go full embargo," he said.

"We need to take our implementation of sanctions as seriously as the Kremlin takes circumvention."

In theory, sanctions could also affect Russian public opinion. In October, a survey by the state-run Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM) said 56% of respondents said they felt "very tired" of the conflict, up from 47% last year.

But the consensus among Kremlinologists is that much of the Russian public remains supportive of Putin's strategy.

Reuters Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy meets with U. President Donald Trump over lunch in the Cabinet Room at the White House in WashingtonReuters
The Ukrainian president arrived in Berlin on Sunday for peace talks with Witkoff and Friedrich Merz (Trump and Zelensky pictured on a previous occasion)

The European Union could agree to use about €200bn (£176bn) of frozen Russian assets to generate a so-called "reparation loan" for Ukraine. The latest European Commission proposal is to raise €90bn (£79bn) over two years.

In Kyiv, officials are already banking on getting the cash. But still the EU hesitates.

Belgium, where the bulk of the Russian assets are held, has long feared being sued by Russia - and on Friday, the Russian Central Bank announced legal action against Belgian bank Euroclear in a Moscow court.

Belgium says it will not agree the loan unless legal and financial risks are shared more explicitly with other EU members. France has concerns, such is its own vast debts, and fears exploiting the frozen assets could undermine the stability of the eurozone.

EU leaders will make a further attempt to agree a deal when they meet in Brussels on 18 December for their final summit before Christmas. But diplomats say there is no guarantee of success.

There is also disagreement over what the cash should be used for: keeping Ukraine's state solvent now or paying for its reconstruction after the war.

Ukraine's conscription question

As for Ukraine, it could mobilise more of its armed forces.

It remains the second-biggest army in Europe (behind Russia), and the most technically advanced - but it is nonetheless struggling to defend an 800-mile frontline.

After almost four years of war, many soldiers are exhausted and desertion rates are rising.

Getty Images Firefighters douse flames at a residential building while rescuers search the rubble for victims after a Russian ballistic missile strike in Kyiv, Ukraine
Getty Images
Ukraine is defending itself against repeated Russian air attacks

Army recruiters are finding it harder to fill gaps as some younger men hide from press gangs or flee the country. But Ukraine could widen its conscription laws.

Currently only men aged 25 to 60 must be available to fight. This is a deliberate strategy by Kyiv to manage Ukraine's demographic challenges; a country with a low birth rate and millions living abroad cannot afford to lose what have been dubbed "the fathers of the future".

This puzzles outsiders. "I find it incredible that Ukraine has not mobilised its young people," one senior UK military figure told me.

"I think Ukraine must be one of the only countries in history facing an existential threat that has not thrown its mad 20-year-olds into the fight."

Fiona Hill said Ukraine had simply learned the lesson of history and the devastating impact World War One had on 20th Century European empires, which declined after failing to rediscover the population growth that had fuelled their economic rise.

"Ukraine is just thinking of their demographic [future]."

Strikes, diplomacy and Trump

If Ukraine could import and manufacture more long-range missiles, it could hit Russia harder and deeper.

This year it stepped up its air strikes on targets both in occupied territory and the Russian Federation. Earlier this month Ukraine's military commanders told Radio Liberty they had hit more than 50 fuel and military-industrial infrastructure facilities in Russia during the autumn.

Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, says some Russians experienced fuel shortages earlier this year. "By late October, Ukrainian drones had hit more than half of Russia's thirty-eight major refineries at least once.

"Production outages spread across multiple regions, and some Russian gas stations began rationing fuel."

But would more deep strikes on Russia make an impact, when both the Kremlin and public opinion in Russia seem indifferent?

AFP via Getty Images A woman mourns among graves of Ukrainian servicemen at the Lychakiv cemeteryAFP via Getty Images
As well as defending its territory, Ukraine has stepped up air strikes in the Russian federation

Mick Ryan, former Australian major general and now fellow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says deep strikes are not a magic bullet.

"They are an extraordinarily important military endeavour, but insufficient by themselves to force Putin to the negotiating table or to win the war."

Dr Sidharth Kaushal, senior research fellow in military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) think tank, said more deep strikes would certainly damage Russia's energy and military infrastructure, as well as using up its air defence missiles. But he warned the tactic could be counterproductive.

"It could reinforce the argument the Russian leadership makes that an independent Ukraine poses a massive military threat," he said.

There's also - still - a diplomatic route.

Some analysts argue that if Putin is offered a way out of the war, he may choose it.

The theory goes like this: a deal is agreed that allows both sides to claim victory. Say, a ceasefire along the line of contact; some areas demilitarised; no formal territorial recognition. Compromises all round.

But the deal would require the US to engage hard with Russia, setting up negotiating teams, using its power to drive through agreement.

"The United States… needs to deploy its formidable psychological leverage it possesses over Russia,"

Thomas Graham argues. "One cannot overstate the role the United States – and Trump personally – plays in validating Russia as a great power and Putin as a global leader."

China's leverage

The wild card is China. President Xi Jinping is one of the few world leaders Putin listens to. When Xi warned earlier in the conflict against Russian threats of nuclear weapon use, the Kremlin fell swiftly in line.

Russia's war machine is also huge dependent on China's supply of dual use goods – such as electronics or machinery that can be used for civilian and military purposes.

So if Beijing decided it was no longer in China's interests for the war to continue, then it would have substantial leverage over Kremlin thinking.

For now, the US shows no sign of trying to encourage – or force – China to put pressure on Moscow. So the question is whether President Xi would be willing to apply any leverage off his own bat.

Shutterstock Putin shaking hands with President XiShutterstock
President Xi Jinping is one of the few world leaders Putin listens to

At the moment China seems happy for the US to be distracted, for transatlantic allies to be divided, and for the rest of the world to view China as a source of stability. But if Russia's invasion escalated, if global markets were disrupted, if the US applied secondary sanctions on China in punishment for its consumption of cheap Russian energy, then the thinking in Beijing might change.

For now though, Putin believes he is sitting pretty, with time on his side. The longer this conflict goes on, analysts say, the more Ukrainian morale will fall, the more divided its allies will become, and the more territory Russia will gain in Donetsk.

"Either we liberate these territories by force of arms or Ukrainian troops leave these territories," Putin said last week.

"Nothing will change his position," Fiona Hill told me. "Unless he exits stage left. Putin is betting right now that he can keep this going for long enough that circumstances play out to his advantage."

Top picture credit: Reuters

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