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“蛆”是段子,但“区”是民意

郭德纲因为一句“蛆”的段子被约谈,几天后,孟晚舟回国旧视频被翻出,弹幕刷满“区”。 从控评到刷屏,从洗脑宣传到网络讽刺, 一个字,说明了一切:“区”。在不能说真话的地方,讽刺成了最锋利的表达。 谁在怕“蛆”?谁又被“区”指着鼻子?

郭德纲因为一句“蛆”的段子被约谈,几天后,孟晚舟回国旧视频被翻出,弹幕刷满“区”。从控评到刷屏,从洗脑宣传到网络讽刺,一个字,说明了一切:“区”。在不能说真话的地方,讽刺成了最锋利的表达。谁在怕“蛆”?谁又被“区”指着鼻子?

© RFA制图

郭德纲因为“蛆”的段子被约谈,几天后,孟晚舟回国旧视频被翻出,弹幕刷满“区”。

GPT-5.2 翻车内幕曝光:技术团队没走「歪路」,但用户成了大冤种

OpenAI 的十周岁生日,过得不太体面。

在当天发布的 GPT-5.2 交出了一份完美答卷:它横扫许多基准测试的 SOTA,在数学和编程等竞赛场景中的表现堪称亮眼,也被官方描述为 AI「超级大脑」。

可到了社交网络,迎接它的不是掌声,而是用户的集体骂街。

在 X 和 Reddit 上,愤怒与失望几乎写在每一条评论里。人们又一次怀念起那个曾经的「白月光」GPT-4o:有人说 GPT-5.2 变得平淡、乏味、像被磨平了棱角;也有人讥讽它成了「把成年人当幼儿园小孩对待」的说教。

当舆论的炮火对准 OpenAI 及其 CEO Sam Altman(山姆·奥特曼),一个尖锐的问题摆在面前:为什么模型更「聪明」了,用户反而更不爱了?

更「聪明」的模型,为什么不讨喜了

The Information 今天凌晨的最新报道,扒出了内幕。

过去一年,OpenAI 内部曾奉行一条铁律:每一次模型的代际飞跃,都会伴随着用户量的爆发式增长,因为「变聪明」带来的体验升级是直观的。但现在,这条铁律失效了。

当然,模型在智能与科研计算领域的提升依旧显著。研究团队耗费数月打磨推理能力,让它能攻克更复杂的数学与科学难题,但对于大多数普通用户而言,这种感知微乎其微。

🔗 https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openais-organizational-problems-hurt-chatgpt?rc=qmzset

换句话说,智能的提升,并不天然等同于体验的提升。

普通用户很少需要一台「竞赛级大脑」,他们更多需要一个「日常好用的助手」。OpenAI 对 150 万次对话的大规模分析佐证了这一判断,用户的核心需求极其接地气:实用指导(29%)、信息查询(24%)以及写作(24%)等,而与编程任务相关的对话只有 4.2%。

于是矛盾就变得非常具体:当技术团队在实验室里狂卷数理化、狂卷基准测试时,用户在聊天框里只想要一句话解决问题——别绕、别教、别拖。

战线拉得过长是一大槽点。

今年大部分时间里,奥特曼同时启动了多个新项目:视频生成应用 Sora、音乐 AI、浏览器、AI Agent、硬件设备、机器人……摊子越铺越大,资源也被越分越碎。

这其实是科技巨头最常见的经典错误:核心阵地还没打稳,就急着开辟第二、第三战场。短期看是「全面开花」,长期看,贪多嚼不烂,乃兵家大忌——每一条战线都缺人、缺算力、缺产品打磨的耐心。

OpenAI 内部「研究优先」和「产品增长」之间的拉扯,在图像生成上体现得尤为明显:

即便 GPT-4o 的吉卜力风格在三月还短暂带动过 ChatGPT 的使用与用户增长,但 OpenAI 还是一度把图像模型的开发优先级往后放,等到 Nano Banana 口碑发酵后,OpenAI 又紧急回头补课,内部也因此爆发分歧——

奥特曼认定图像模型是用户增长的抓手,研究主管 Mark Chen 则更想把资源押在别的项目上。

另外,伴随着 Scaling Laws 边际效益递减,为了突破大模型的瓶颈,OpenAI 过去一年里押注了推理模型,超过 1000 人的研究团队将资源倾斜于此,导致对 ChatGPT 日常体验的优化被边缘化。

这种做法不仅分散了资源,甚至在年初的内测中出现了性能倒退——为了适配「聊天」场景,反而削弱了推理模型的纯粹性。虽然后来推出了「思考模式」和「深度研究」来分流、来补救,但用户使用率却很低,真正的日常对话体验并没有因此变得更讨喜。

除此之外,新旧模型之间也常出现兼容问题。

例如在发布 GPT-5 前,研究人员发现模型在集成进 ChatGPT 后在部分编程任务上表现变差——因为系统根据用户职业等个性化信息调整回答,结果反而干扰了模型理解,导致错误答案。

诚然,推理模型越来越强,但 ChatGPT 体验越来越拉胯。

当技术进步的方向和用户需求的方向开始分叉,谁会先妥协?答案显而易见。

Gemini 3 Pro 的强势发布,最终把 OpenAI 逼到了墙角,于是便有了奥特曼发布「红色警报」的经典名场面,要求 OpenAI 员工重新聚焦 ChatGPT,提高产品体验吸引力。

而在同一时间,OpenAI 应用负责人 Fidji Simo 也在个人博客中阐述 ChatGPT 的愿景,那就是从主要以文本为主的对话系统,转向能根据用户意图动态生成界面的全生成式 UI。

只是 Simo 也曾承认,公司本质仍以研究为中心,「产品本身并不是最终目标」。

从商业逻辑看,这句话其实很危险。

不同于 Anthropic 更偏向主攻 API 市场,OpenAI 的大头收入来自个人订阅。在消费市场,没有人会为企业的「终极理想」买单,用户只愿为当下的体验付费。这就好比餐厅大厨醉心于研发米其林料理,而大堂里的食客仅仅想要一碗热气腾腾的阳春面。

不过,如果你因此就断言 OpenAI 内部已经乱了阵脚,那可能低估了这家公司的韧性。

据彭博社援引 Mark Chen 的说法,「红色警报」并非新鲜事,而更像是一种战时状态的常态化管理工具。每当 OpenAI 需要集中火力攻克某一单一目标,或要求团队放下低优先级任务时,这种机制就会启动。

▲播客地址:https://x.com/Kantrowitz/status/2001790090641645940

奥特曼在最新的播客中,同样否认了拉响红色警报带来的过度焦虑。

「首先,所谓的『红色警报』,在我们看来其实是一种低风险、但非常必要的应对措施。」奥特曼坦言,「在潜在的竞争威胁出现时,保持一点『偏执』、并迅速做出反应,是件好事。」

他甚至提到了今年年初 DeepSeek 的崛起,认为那和现在的 Gemini 3 一样,都是一种良性的外部刺激。

「Gemini 3 到目前为止,还没带来我们原本担心的那种毁灭性冲击。虽然它和 DeepSeek 一样,精准地刺痛了我们在产品策略上的软肋,但也倒逼我们做出了极其迅速的调整。」

在奥特曼看来,这种紧急状态通常只会持续六到八周。「我很高兴我们有这种快速反应机制,我们不会在这个状态里待太久。」

OpenAI 显然也明白光喊口号不够,他们今天也正式发布了 GPT-5.2-Codex。

作为专为解决复杂现实软件工程问题而生的智能体编程模型,GPT-5.2-Codex 在通用智能的基础上,融合了 GPT-5.1-Codex-Max 的终端操作能力,更擅长处理代码重构、迁移等长程任务。

而同样是在播客的尾声,当主持人询问「GPT-6 还要等多久?」时,奥特曼敞亮地表示:「我不知道我们什么时候会正式把某个模型命名为 GPT-6,但我预计在明年第一季度,会有比 5.2 有显著提升的新模型发布。」

拉响「红色警报」,到 GPT-5.2 系列的反击,再到 GPT-6 的暧昧预告,OpenAI 试图用新模型与新节奏重建信心,但决定长期胜负的,仍是分发入口、生态协同与算力成本等硬门槛。

Google 的阳谋,与奥特曼的 8300 亿「空城计」

Google 的优势,从来不只在 Gemini 3 Pro 这一个模型上,更在于它几乎无可匹敌的分发渠道。

搜索、Chrome、办公套件。在 AI 赛道,护城河可能是所有科技产品中最浅的。 用户的迁移成本几乎为零,当 Google 的 AI 产品如空气般无处不在,这几乎成了一场无解的阳谋——你不需要「被说服」,你只会「顺手就用」。

更重要的是,在与 Google 的较量中,硬件层面的短板成了 OpenAI 最大的软肋。

相比于 Google 十二年前就开始布局专用 AI 芯片(TPU)所建立的效率优势,OpenAI 每年仍需花费数十亿美元租用算力。即便试图通过自建数据中心和芯片来「补课」,但体验在被追平、成本在被碾压的现状已是不争的事实。

用网友的话来说:

OpenAI 现在并不需要一个更强大的模型,它需要的是 AMD。如果 OpenAI 收购了 AMD,这场 AI 之战就将宣告结束。Google 之所以不怕 OpenAI,是因为它拥有自家的 TPU。但它真正该担心的,是 OpenAI 拥有 AMD。

OpenAI 总裁 Greg Brockman 在最近的视频中也坦言,由于算力捉襟见肘,每当新功能上线(如年初 GPT-4o 吉卜力风格),就必须从研究部门「抽血」,把算力挪给产品部。这是一种饮鸩止渴的循环——为了维持今天的用户体验,被迫推迟了明日的技术研发。

可算力这东西,归根到底就是两个字:烧钱。而且是海量地烧钱。

为此,据 WSJ 报道,OpenAI 已计划发起 1000 亿美元的巨额融资;若一切顺利,这家超级独角兽将在明年 Q1 之前,以 8300 亿美元的估值,再次刷新资本市场的想象力。

而在今年早些时候,软银同意向 OpenAI 投资 300 亿美元,并于上月出售所持的英伟达股份价值 58 亿美元,为这笔投资筹资,并预计尽快完成剩余 225 亿美元的出资。

但钱的问题没那么简单。预计到 2030 年,OpenAI 的现金消耗将超过 2000 亿美元。相比之下,Google 财务稳健,甚至能通过 Oracle 等合作伙伴的股价波动间接挤压 OpenAI 的融资前景。

到处筹钱的 OpenAI,看起来更像是在和时间赛跑。于是便诞生了那个笑话:照奥特曼的融资能力,没准哪天连 Google 和英伟达都能「打包带走」。

但玩笑归玩笑,钱能买来时间,却买不来口碑。

所以在 2025 年这个冬天,狂奔三年的 OpenAI 选择先踩一脚刹车,其实是对的:收拢战线、回撤资源,把方向重新对准 ChatGPT 的日常体验。

这是一次昂贵但必要的纠偏。

技术领先不等于产品好用,基准测试第一不等于用户满意。更重要的是,你不能只在用户怀念旧版本的时候,才想起来问问他们的感受。

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中国继续对原产于美韩欧盟的合成橡胶征收反倾销税

中国自星期六起继续对原产于美国、韩国和欧盟的进口三元乙丙橡胶征收最高222%的反倾销税。

中国商务部星期五(12月19日)在官网公布,对原产于美国、韩国和欧盟的进口三元乙丙橡胶所适用的反倾销措施发起期终复审调查。

三元乙丙橡胶用途比较广泛,可用于建筑、电线电缆、汽车工业、交通等领域。

相关调查将于星期六(20日)开始,应于2026年12月20日前结束。调查期间将继续按照商务部2020年第60号公告公布的征税产品范围和税率征收反倾销税。

商务部第60号公告显示,对美国公司征收214.9%至222%不等的反倾销税,对韩国公司征收12.5%至24.5%不等的反倾销税,对欧盟公司的税率则介于14.7%至31.7%。

与此同时,商务部此前对原产于英国的进口三元乙丙橡胶所适用的反倾销措施,将于星期六到期终止。

彭博:特朗普大搞对华“两手抓”

美国政府本周宣布总统特朗普第二任期中的第二批对台军售,共涉及八项军备,总金额超过111亿美元(143.4亿新元),创历史新高。彭博社星期五(12月19日)分析,特朗普政府大搞对华“两手抓”,加强与北京的经济和贸易关系的同时,也想要跟台湾维持牢固的防务纽带。

美国战争部星期三(12月17日)证实,国务院已批准M109A7自走炮、海马士(HIMARS)远程精准打击系统、Altius系列无人机等八案、总额达111亿540万美元的对台军售案,并进行“知会国会”程序。这是特朗普重返白宫后,美国第二度宣布对台军售,总金额创历史新高。

此举引发了北京强烈不满。中国大陆外交部发言人郭嘉昆星期五在例行记者会上说,美国大规模对台军售粗暴干涉中国内政,严重损害中国主权安全和领土完整,严重破坏台海和平稳定,向“台独”分裂势力和外界发出严重错误信号。“中方强烈不满、坚决反对,已第一时间向美方提出严正抗议。”

郭嘉昆强调,中国核心利益不容损害,台湾问题不容干涉,中国底线不容触碰。“台独”与台海和平水火不容,任何武装台湾的行径都将面临严重后果。

他警告:“任何人任何势力都不要低估中国政府和人民捍卫国家主权和领土完整的坚强意志和强大能力。无论向台湾卖多少先进武器,都阻挡不了中国终将统一也必将统一的历史大势。”

彭博社指出,美国政府星期四晚宣布的这笔对台军售中,除了尚未分派、甚至都还未公开招标的战术指挥控制网络外,其余系统此前都曾售予台湾。此次军售不包括以前卖给台湾用于防御解放军海上攻势的“鱼叉”反舰导弹、“SLAM”增程型反舰导弹或Mk-48重型鱼雷。

前美国外交官、保守派智库保卫民主基金会高级中国研究员辛格尔顿(Craig Singleton)分析:“这一单并非对台政策的突然转变,而是力度得到加强的延续……哪怕华盛顿在尝试经济上的(对华)缓和,它仍在大力投资于威慑。”

这或许能让那些批评特朗普为加强对华经贸关系、可能准备削弱对台关系的人士稍感宽慰。

彭博新闻9月报道称,中国国家主席习近平再次敦促美国改变几十年来的立场描述,要求特朗普政府正式宣布反对“台独”。美国国务卿鲁比奥后来表示,特朗普政府不会为了与中国达成贸易协议,放弃其长期以来对台湾的支持。

吸散户:香港股市拟大降股票每手价值至1000元 长远划一每手股数 - RFI - 法国国际广播电台

19/12/2025 - 09:56

香港交易所推出谘询文件,以优化股票流动,包括将每手股票的数目由现时的44种标淮化至8种,长远更希望划一每手股数,以便与国际市场接轨;又会将每手股票价值的指引下限大降五成至1000港元(下同,折算约 110欧元),并增设 5万元的每手价值指引上限。港交所期望,降低散户投资门槛,可提升散户参与度。不过,分析师认为,新措施对股市提振只有轼微作用,公司表现丶大市及其趋势才是关键因素。

香港现时的每手股数由发行人自行决定,适用证券的每手股数共有 44种之多,由最少的10股至 10万股一手都有,而最常见的,是每手 2000股,占市场25%。但港交所指出,多种不同的每手股数会令交易流程变得复杂,亦增加操作错误的风险;在部分情况下更会导致个别证券的每手价值过高,有机会限制散户投资者的参与。

港交所为此建议,把每手股数标淮化为 1股丶50股丶100股丶500股丶1000股丶2000股丶5000股及10000股等八种,预料25%发行人或657只证券需调整现行每手买卖单位。长远而言,会将每手股数统一,港交所证券产品发展主管罗博仁(Brian Roberts)昨(18日)在发布谘询文件时指出,现时一步到位地统一会面对挑战,包括硬件升级,故会谨慎及分阶段地向国际交易所标淮的方向迈进,日本当年亦花了数年时间才将每手股数规范至统一。

另外,文件又建议收窄股票买卖价差以提升资本市场流动性,分别是将每手股票价值的指引下限大降五成至1000元,并增设 5万元的每手价值指引上限,以免每手价值过高会阻碍散户参与,又或令散户未有足够资金作分散投资或对冲。港交所解释,以5万元作上限基淮,是因为去年数据显示,介乎1万至5万元的证券,散户参与度相对稳定,超过此上限,散户的参与便明显下降。

对于港交所的建议,上市公司商会不反对其方向;证券业界亦支持新建议,认为若一步到位地统一为一手1 股,会令买卖宗数大增,港交所和劵商均要将系统升级,现时统整为八种,对系统调整改动的要求,不难处理,成本亦有限,而拉低每手入场费,亦有利散户参与。

但独立股评人温杰和大唐资本投资策略部总监卢志明接受传媒访问时不约而同地表示,新建议对提振香港股市略有帮助,但市场规范不会是影响股市的完全因素,关键仍然是相关公司或股市的表现,以及股市的走势。温杰更直言,入场费较低,对股民入市只有边际作用,买卖股票「最紧要系佢(指股票)有得赚,有得升。」相反,若大家看淡后市,一手1股也没多大用处。所以,股市兴衰最主要是取决于公司基本因素丶个人对股份或指数看好看差。

港交所就优化香港证券市场每手买卖单位框架发出的《谘询文件》,由港府于 2023年 8月成立的促进股票市场流动性专责小组提出,分两阶段推行,公众可于明年 3月 12日前向港交所提出建议,该所会于明年上半年前综合意见并公布推出详情。

美国参议院议员提出支持日本决议案 高市早苗力争早期访美 - RFI - 法国国际广播电台

19/12/2025 - 09:59

鉴于日中关系恶化,美国联邦议会议员中出现了支持日本的动向。美国参议院共和、民主两党的议员于当地时间17日提交了一项决议案,要求再次确认特朗普政府对日美同盟的支持。在众议院方面,民主党议员也于8日向特朗普总统致函,要求加强对日本的支持。而据18日多名日本相关人士透露,日本政府已开始协调高市早苗首相于明年春季访美,并与美国总统特朗普举行会谈。这是考虑到了因首相就“台湾有事”所作国会答辩引起日中关系恶化,日本希望以特朗普总统为首的美国政府,更坚定地站在日本一方。

该决议案由参议院外交委员会的皮特·里基茨议员(Pete Ricketts,共和党)和库恩斯议员(Christopher Coons,民主党)主导,前驻日大使哈格蒂议员(William Francis Hagerty,共和党)等人也参与署名。

决议案列举了中国要求本国公民避免赴日、中国军机对日本自卫队飞机进行雷达照射等事例,明确写入“谴责中国对日本实施的经济、军事及外交上的胁迫”。同时,对日本方面的立场给予肯定,认为日本正在努力缓和紧张局势。

针对台湾有事问题,高市首相在国会答辩中提及的“存立危机事态”,决议案指出这“是允许行使集体自卫权的情形”,认为相关发言并不存在问题,决议案还明确提出再次确认《日美安全保障条约》第五条适用于钓鱼群岛。

汇总该决议案的共和党议员皮特·里基茨在声明中表示:“美国始终将与日本携手并肩、坚定应对。自1951年以来,日美同盟一直是印太地区和平、安全与繁荣的基石。中国对日本的威吓行为不可容忍。”

在日中由于高市早苗首相的国会答辩趋于险恶之后,特朗普政府没有表现出坚定地站在日本方面的立场,采取了模棱两可的“骑墙对策”。

特朗普在10月底与中国国家主席习近平会谈时,将美中关系称为“G2”。G2意为“两个集团”,曾被用作美国将中国视为与自身同等的超级大国、并强调两国协调合作的口号,但近来由于关税等对立因素,这一表述本身已似乎淡出,特朗普重提此话,引起日本方面警惕。

中国对高市早苗首相就“台湾有事”问题所作的国会答辩表示强烈反弹,并加大了对日本的施压。美国政府政府发言人则表示:“(特朗普)认为,美国应在坚守牢固的日美同盟的同时,与中国保持良好的合作关系。”(白宫新闻秘书莱维特语),流露出对中国的顾虑。外界认为,这是为了避免对正在进行的中美经贸谈判造成不利影响。

据说美国总统特朗普曾经呼吁日本不要介入台湾问题,似乎特朗普更倾向于维护中方的利益。

特朗普对中国的看法摇摆幅度过大,几乎难以解读,但至少在11月底日美首脑电话会谈时,他显然更倾向于优先推进与中国的交易。

据18日多名日本相关人士透露,日本政府已开始协调高市早苗首相于明年春季访美,并与美国总统特朗普举行会谈。这一举动也考虑到了因首相就台湾有事所作国会答辩而趋于恶化的日中关系。着眼于特朗普计划于明年4月访华,日方希望借此确认牢固的日美同盟关系,在日中对立问题上得到美国的强有力的支持和安全保障方面的合作。

高市首相在17日的记者会上表示,希望“尽可能早日与特朗普举行会谈”,展现出强烈意愿。虽然朝野党内也有人呼吁利用1月在瑞士举行的世界经济论坛年会(达沃斯会议)之机举行日美首脑会谈,但首相身边人士表示,希望不是在国际会议期间顺带会谈,而是以双边访问的形式,就经济、安全保障等广泛领域的合作进行深入磋商。

香港前领导人自曝曾促商界令《苹果》广告大减 惟官方当年曾否认 - RFI - 法国国际广播电台

19/12/2025 - 10:06

经常在社交平台月旦港事的中国政协副主席丶香港前行政长官(又称特首)梁振英,昨(18日)早在其脸书撰文,自认当年任内曾主动约见《苹果日报》的大广告客户,最终将该报的「全版和半版广告压缩到接近零」,还说,过程中「得罪了不少人」。但法广翻查资料可见,《苹果》当年曾引述不具名人士透露梁逼商界抽广告,却遭亲京报章撰文反斥,并引述「特首办发言人」否认,称「绝无此事」。

被迫于2021年停刊的香港《苹果日报》,其创办人黎智英曾在2014年初透露,一年失去的广告便超过 2亿港元(折合约2100万欧元),抽走的,包括一些在中国大陆有巨大投资的公司和银行的广告,不清楚是否涉及政治压力或得罪了人。事件当年引起关注,该报年中时再就被抽广告事宜刊登报道,剑指特首梁振英,指对方逼商界抽其广告,打压新闻自由。

报道刑登翌日(2014年5月29日),亲京的《大公报》在内版以头条新闻方式反驳,指《苹果》近年销量大跌,却诿过于人,引述含糊的消息来源「污蔑」时任「特首梁振英逼商界抽其广告」。「对于这种无中生有的报道,行政长官办公室回覆清楚表明,『绝无此事』。」文章更引述时任立法会议员黄定光表示,「消息是不可能被隐瞒过去的。我相信行政长官亦不会这么傻,去做这样的事情。」

事隔11年,在2012年至17年间当香港特首的梁振英,自动曝光当年确有其事。自称多年来不断驳斥黎智英和呼吁杯葛《苹果》的梁振英昨在脸书称,黎智英是在港反共势力的大脑和喉舌,而相关活动都需要金钱支撑,广告是一传媒的主要利润来源,故此「连续几年」,他会在脸书点名于《苹果》落全版或半版广告的广告客户,「任特首期间我主动约见《苹果日报》的大广告客户,包括大银行和大集团,虽然反应不一,但最终还是将《苹果日报》的全版和半版广告压缩到接近零,过程中当然得罪了不少人。」

昔否认今自爆 时移势易?政府失诚信?

黎智英周一(15日)被裁定触犯国安法下的勾结外国势力罪和煽动罪名成立,明年初求情,稍后判刑,不少西方国家和人权组织呼吁释放黎智英,但梁振英昨在帖文中唱反调,称「黎智英影响之大之坏,是所有其他反对派的总和,我认为对此人的量刑也应该这样考虑。」

他又说,香港要总结经验,「不希望将来有大大小小的黎智英再次在香港出现」,如果出现,要「在事中斗争,而不是在事后斗争」,且要善于斗争,不能单靠国安法。

《明报》今日的政治专栏提及梁振英这篇帖文时,称文章在建制阵营引起「颇大关注」,侧重点在时移势易,指梁振英任特首时敢「封杀」《苹果》广告,但却不承认,「今日才自爆,可见香港政治环境的改变,已是不可同日而语。」不过,网上评论则据此批评梁振英是在政治打压,又质疑梁和港府的诚信,自嘲不知如何看待港府现时的否认和驳斥声明;但亦有网民为港府辩护,称特首办当年只是否认梁「逼商界抽广告」一事,不是梁现在所说的「约见」。

另有网民模拟考试选择题说,事件有五种可能性,一是特首办讲大话;二是大公出假新闻;三是梁振英讲大话;四是「以上都是」;五是「戴头盔」(即保护自己)选项:「以上都不是」。



TikTok owner signs deal to avoid US ban

NurPhoto via Getty Images The TikTok logo appears on a smartphone screen, with the American flag on a computer screen in the background, in this photo illustration taken in Athens, Greece, on September 26, 2025NurPhoto via Getty Images

TikTok's Chinese owner ByteDance has signed binding agreements with US and global investors to sell the majority of its business in America, TikTok's boss told employees on Thursday.

Half of the joint venture will be owned by a group of investors, including Oracle, Silver Lake and the Emirati investment firm MGX, according to a memo sent by chief executive Shou Zi Chew.

The deal, which is set to close on 22 January, would end years of efforts by Washington to force ByteDance to sell its US operations over national security concerns.

The deal is ​line with one unveiled in September, when US President Donald Trump delayed the enforcement of a law that would ban the app unless it was sold.

In the memo, TikTok said the deal will enable "over 170 million Americans to continue discovering a world of endless possibilities as part of a vital global community".

The White House referred the BBC to TikTok when contacted for comment.

台宪诉法新制被宣告失效 宪法法庭停摆逾400天后将复活

台湾总统赖清德两度提名七位司法院大法官人选均遭立法院封杀,在《宪法诉讼法》修正案规定下,宪法法庭因大法官人数不够而停摆一年多。宪法法庭星期五宣布,宪诉法立法程序存在明显重大瑕疵,应即日起失效。

综合《自由时报》《联合报》等报道,台湾司法院星期五(12月19日)下午召开记者会宣布,《宪法诉讼法》修正案的立法程序存在明显重大瑕疵,违背宪法正当立法程序,并违反宪法权力分立原则,均抵触宪法,应自本判决公告之日(星期五)起失效。

这意味着停摆一年多的宪法法庭将可恢复运作,待审的声请释宪案将有机会进入实质审理。

台湾在野党去年底三读通过《宪法诉讼法》修正案,规定未来参与评议的大法官人数将不得低于10人,做出同意违宪宣告的大法官人数不得低于九人。

鉴于宪法法庭继任的七位大法官提名两度被立法院的蓝(国民党)白(民进党)阵营否决,目前大法官仅有八人。依照现行法律,宪法法庭无法评议、作判决或暂时处置。宪法法庭自去年10月28日作出判决后,已逾400天没有再下判,至今有473件案件仍有待审理。

韩外长:推进李在明2026年初访华

韩国外长赵显星期五(12月19日)表示,外交部明年将推进总统李在明访华事宜,并适时安排举行韩美领导人会谈。

据韩联社报道,赵显当天在首尔外交部大楼向李在明进行工作汇报。他说,外交部将推进李在明明年初访华相关事宜,同时持续开展韩日“穿梭外交”。

韩国外交部也将继续深化韩美日合作,促进韩中日合作,并与俄罗斯保持沟通。

在韩美关系方面,赵显说,韩国外交部明年将适时促成韩美元首会谈,检查双方达成的协议落实情况和成果,争取在核潜艇、核能、造船合作方面取得实质性进展。

此前一天,中国外交部副部长马朝旭与韩国副部长朴润柱星期四(18日)在北京举行第11次中韩外交部门高级别战略对话,就中韩关系、朝鲜半岛问题、地区和国际局势等共同关切交换意见。

此次中韩外交部门高级别战略对话,是继去年7月后、时隔近一年半再次举行,也是李在明政府今年6月上台以来首次。

韩联社引述中韩副外长评价称,中韩领导人上月会谈成功举行,推动两国全面修复战略合作伙伴关系,希望两国基于紧密沟通,落实领导人会谈的后续措施。

两国副外长还一致认为,为实现东北亚地区的稳定与繁荣,区域国家应基于相互尊重开展建设性合作。双方还商定,在基于平等合作发展互补经济关系的同时,也深化稳定民生方面的合作,携手应对跨国犯罪等。

中国外交部官网引述马朝旭在星期四的对话中指出,中韩互为重要近邻和合作伙伴,在两国元首战略引领下,两国关系呈现积极向好发展势头。

马朝旭表示,中国愿韩国方一道,落实好两国元首重要共识,密切沟通对话,深化务实合作,保持多边协调,推动中韩战略合作伙伴关系沿着正确轨道向前发展。

大陆海警金门巡航 台湾海巡强势驱离

中国大陆海警星期四(12月18日)在金门附近海域开展常态执法巡查。台湾海巡署批评此举严重破坏区域和平稳定,海巡署舰艇当天强势驱离,全程以近迫、造浪等方式,迫使大陆海警船转向航出。

据中国大陆海警微信公众号消息,大陆海警局东海分局新闻发言人朱安庆星期五(19日)表示,福建海警此前一天在金门附近海域开展常态执法巡查。其间,采取编队航行、识别查证、喊话警告等措施,加强重点海域管控,圆满顺利完成任务。

朱安庆表示,今年以来,福建海警组织舰艇编队持续加强金门附近海域执法巡查,进一步强化有关海域管控力度,维护两岸渔民合法正当权益和生命财产安全,保障金门附近海域正常航行和作业秩序。

台湾海巡署星期五也在官网通报,指星期四下午侦获大陆海警船编队,跨越金门限制水域线,航入金门禁止水域,批评大陆海警挑衅行为恶意升级,已严重破坏区域和平稳定。

据通报,台湾海巡署星期四12时许侦获大陆海警船在大帽山南方水域外有集结现象,随即调派巡防艇在金门南方水域部署。

“14605”、“14515”、“14606” 及“14609”等四艘大陆海警船,星期四下午2时52分从翟山南方航入金门限制水域,台湾海巡署立即出动预置巡防艇应对。面对大陆海警持续航入禁止水域,台湾巡防艇采取“船艏压迫”模式对应,近迫大陆海警船船首,拒止其继续深入台湾水域。

台湾巡防艇同时通过中英文无线电广播,强势驱离。四艘大陆海警船在下午4时17分转向航出金门限制水域。

台湾海巡署强调,大陆海警恶意升级对台进行灰带袭扰,针对这种破坏区域和平稳定的挑衅举措,予以严厉谴责。台海巡署表示,持续强化情报监侦手段,精准掌握大陆公务船动态,根据侵扰型态提升应对模式与强度,全力捍卫主权和海域安全。

台灣軍方推動「去中心化」指揮 能有效因應中國攻擊嗎?

周昱君
2025-12-19T08:11:37.226Z
若中國宣告對台海周邊實施複合式軍事行動,台灣軍方會開設「國軍應變中心」,指導作戰層級完成「加強戒備」戰備兵力規劃,並視情況提升戰備等級;若敵方「猝然攻擊」,則各部隊不待命令實施「分散式管制」,在「去中心化」運作指導下遂行作戰任務。

(德國之聲中文網)過去一週以來,軍事議題再一次佔據兩岸輿論版面。在台灣海峽,中國最新、最先進的航空母艦「福建號」現蹤,台灣軍方研判它正返回上海長興島的造船廠進行缺點改進;在華府,美國總統川普剛簽署的《國防授權法案》(NDAA)包含10億美元的台灣安全資金,此外國務院更批准了110億美元的對台軍售,是史上最大規模。

台灣軍隊亦持續備戰工作。本週,台灣國防部發表關於「戰備應變整備」的報告,其中有一項改變格外引發關注:未來,若是敵人「猝然發起攻擊」,那麼各部隊可以「不待命令,實施分散式管制,在『去中心化』的運作指導下,遂行作戰任務」。

依照台灣國防部長顧立雄說法,台灣有必要設想「最壞的狀況」,也就是如果部隊「遭受真實攻擊」,由中心指揮的作戰體系可能會被切斷,因此更需要有「去中心化」的指揮管理系統。

「重點是讓各層級的部隊都要知道上級賦予的任務……就算沒有一個中心給它指揮的情況下,仍然能夠遂行它的任務,」顧立雄說。

台灣國防安全研究院國防戰略與資源研究所所長蘇紫雲告訴DW,「去中心化」非常重要,特別是在中國對台灣展開「斬首攻擊」、試圖切斷指揮管制而導致台灣部隊「群龍無首」的情境下,如果台灣能應用「去中心化」的指揮架構,「就變成九頭蛇,一個頭不見,其他八個頭還是可以相互支援作戰」。

台灣政治大學國際事務學院教授丁樹範也說,隨著解放軍「由演轉戰」(原本是演習,突然變為實戰)的能力增加,可以透過瞬間的攻擊來切斷台灣的指揮中心。

在這種臨時的衝突情況下,台灣一方面要升高戒備,一方面為了縮短反應時間差,可能也需要授權各層級指揮官直接做出反應。丁樹範向DW表示:「我猜想國防部跟參謀本部有內部討論過,就是解放軍可能會對台灣有什麼樣的攻擊、可能會有哪些狀況,可能有18套劇本都不一定。」

台灣國防部指出,平時便依敵關鍵預警徵候,於突發狀況處置規定,訂定各項敵情威脅模式及襲擾類型。

應變「非常態的戰爭」?

「去中心化」的概念其實由來已久,在台灣學界也有相關討論。蘇紫雲認為這是現代軍隊的重要能力,美軍亦有這樣的指揮文化。「這是民主國家跟以前蘇聯紅軍完全不同(之處),蘇聯軍隊因為是強調政治忠誠,跟中國一樣,所以都一定要等待上級的指揮才會有動作……(西方相較之下)對於軍人是信賴的,就是完全授權給你做前線的指揮。」

近年中國解放軍多次對台發動大規模軍演,軍機與軍艦頻繁在台灣週邊活動,台灣政府亦指控中國持續有網路攻擊、資訊戰等各式「灰色地帶」襲擾;面對這樣的台海兩岸局勢,台灣轉向「去中心化」的指揮體系,也成了強化戰備與應變工作的一環。

週三(12月17日),台灣國防部參謀本部作戰及計畫參謀次長室次長連志威在立法院備詢時便表示:「因為威脅存在,所以平時就要訓練基層官兵,理解這些狀況可能存在……比如此時此刻,共軍正對我們做聯合戰備警巡;如果我們等到這些狀態在瞬間『由訓轉演、由演轉戰』,基層官兵還要等到中央再來給它指揮的時候,恐怕會來不及,所以平常就要訓練基層具備這樣的知識和能力,面對共軍快速轉變的敵情變化。」

然而,上述說法未說服在野黨。17日,國民黨立委馬文君與顧立雄在立法院就此展開攻防。

馬文君多次追問,採取「去中心化」是不是建立在「戰爭狀態已經成立」的前提,以及「基層官兵可不可以自行判斷是否為戰爭狀態」等問題。

對此,顧立雄回應,當解放軍對台發動「第一擊」之後,台灣部隊確實更有必要「去中心化」,但也不能排除在「灰色地帶襲擾」情境下、可能會需要處理突發狀況,這也需要透過不斷的演練去熟悉與驗證。

「這不是正式的戰爭以後才進行去中心化的問題,」政大教授丁樹範說。「現在中國對台灣的做法是一種從資訊戰到心理戰,各方面交叉、交互的運用,所以某種程度上兩岸現在處於一種非常態的戰爭。」

蘇紫雲從整體的國際安全角度分析指,「戰時」的概念較為狹隘,現在許多國家會以更廣義的「緊急狀態」來涵蓋突發情形:無論是軍隊受到攻擊,或是遇到重大天然災害,只要軍隊失去了中心的指揮與聯絡,就可以遂行分散式、去中心化的指揮。

「去中心化」指揮的可能風險

蘇紫雲主張,「去中心化」有助於提高台灣在潛在軍事衝突中的存活能力,更能應對突襲,也更能系統化的抵抗。

「當對方要進行斬首,要讓你失去系統化的作戰能力,那麼如果我的大腦有好幾個,不是只有在頭,這樣子的話失去一個小腦,還是可以進行作戰的……(採取去中心化的)效果是很大,但是風險幾近於零。」

丁樹範則認為,若台灣軍方真能達到「去中心化」,部隊第一線的反應會更快,也會增加中國評估問題的複雜程度:「會讓解放軍想說,我如果佔不到便宜,那我有什麼其他更好的方法,也就是他們也許要增加更多的成本,或者逼著他們不要採取某些行動。」

專家對此態度較為正面。不過,國民黨立委馬文君質疑「去中心化」可能導致「基層官兵要承擔國家風險」。

學者丁樹範亦提到「責任歸屬」的問題。他指出,台灣過去的國防部長湯曜明曾主張,面對解放軍發起的「第一擊」,台灣反擊的決策掌握在國防部長手中,必須由防長直接下令才可以反擊。

「如果台海有衝突,是誰先發動的,責任歸誰?」丁樹範拋出問題:「你怎麼樣不要被指控是麻煩製造者、首先挑起戰火,這是我們要必須謹慎處理的問題。寧可把這個責任丟給中國,也不要讓我們來扛這個東西。」

對於台灣軍隊推動「去中心化」,中國國台辦發言人朱鳳蓮重申中國過去既有的回應,批評民進黨政府「頑固堅持台獨分裂立場」、「以武謀獨」。

中國軍方尚無公開回應,但台灣專家丁樹範預料,解放軍會密切、深入觀察台灣如何準備,還會觀察美軍如何協助訓練,「美國派到台灣來訓練台灣部隊的這些幹部,他們是不是也朝向這方面的訓練?我相信解放軍他們有在看這個東西。」

DW中文有Instagram!歡迎搜尋dw.chinese,看更多深入淺出的圖文與影音報導。

© 2025年德國之聲版權聲明:本文所有內容受到著作權法保護,如無德國之聲特別授權,不得擅自使用。任何不當行為都將導致追償,並受到刑事追究。

Colombian mercenaries in Sudan ‘recruited by UK-registered firms’

Composite image of the Waldorf Hilton in Aldwych, central London, left; the flats in north London where Zeuz Global was once registered; and One Aldwych hotel.theguardian.org

Close to Tottenham Hotspur’s shiny football stadium in London is a squat, nondescript block of flats. It holds a grim secret beyond the unremarkable beige brickwork – a cramped, second-floor apartment in the British capital, linked to murderous atrocities unfolding 3,000 miles south.

The one-bedroom flat off north London’s Creighton Road is, according to UK government records, tied to a transnational network of companies involved in the mass recruitment of mercenaries to fight in Sudan alongside paramilitaries accused of myriad war crimes and genocide.

Hundreds of former Colombian military personnel have been enlisted to fight with Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group responsible for mass rapes, ethnic slaughter and the systematic killing of women and children.

Colombian mercenaries were directly involved in the paramilitaries’ seizure of the south-western Sudanese city of El Fasher in late October, which prompted a killing frenzy that analysts say has cost at least 60,000 lives.

As news of atrocities continue to mount, a Guardian investigation has found connections between the mercenaries hired to overrun El Fasher and addresses in the UK capital.

The flat in Tottenham is registered to a company called Zeuz Global, set up by two individuals named and sanctioned last week by the US treasury for hiring Colombian mercenaries to fight for the RSF.

Both figures – Colombian nationals in their 50s – are described in documents at Companies House, the government register of firms operating in the UK, as living in Britain.

The firm is active. The day after the US treasury announced sanctions on those behind the Colombian mercenary operation – 9 December – Zeuz Global abruptly moved its operation to the very heart of London. On 10 December the firm shared “new address details”. Its new postcode matches One Aldwych, a five-star hotel in Covent Garden.

Yet the first line of Zeuz Global’s new address is, confusingly, “4dd Aldwych,” which corresponds to the Waldorf Hilton hotel 100 metres away.

Both hotels said they had no link to Zeuz Global and had no idea why the firm had used their postcodes.

Experts say the saga raised questions over how individuals whom the US has openly censured for “their roles in fuelling the civil war in Sudan” were able to seemingly set up and run a company in the UK capital.

The British foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, has condemned the RSF for “systematic killings, torture and sexual violence” after the group’s seizure of El Fasher. The RSF has been accused by the US of genocide.

Mike Lewis, a researcher and former member of the UN panel of experts on Sudan, said: “It is of major concern that the key individuals the US government claims are directing this mercenary supply have been able to set up a UK company operating from a flat in north London, and even to claim that they’re resident in the UK.”

When Companies House was asked if it had any knowledge of what Zeuz Global actually did, or is doing, it did not respond. The government agency would also not confirm whether the sanctioned individuals were, in fact, resident in the UK.

Contacting Zeuz proved fruitless; its website, set up in May, was labelled as “under construction” with no contact details provided.

According to the US treasury, the man at the centre of the Colombian recruiting network for the RSF is a dual Colombian-Italian national and retired Colombian military officer based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) called Álvaro Andrés Quijano Becerra.

The US treasury accuses Quijano of playing a central role in recruiting former Colombian soldiers to be deployed to Sudan using a Bogotá-based employment agency he co-founded. His wife, Claudia Viviana Oliveros Forero, was also sanctioned for owning and managing the agency.

A dual Colombian-Spanish national called Mateo Andrés Duque Botero was similarly censured by the US for managing a business accused of handling funds and payroll for the network hiring the Colombian fighters.

“In 2024 and 2025, US-based firms associated with Duque engaged in numerous wire transfers, totalling millions of US dollars,” the US treasury statement said.

On 8 April this year Duque and Oliveros registered a company in north London called ODP8 Ltd – later renamed Zeuz Global – with £10,000 capital.

Three days later, the RSF attacked Zamzam displacement camp, slaughtering more than 1,500 civilians. After its capture, the camp was handed over to Colombian mercenaries who began the preparations for attacking El Fasher, eight miles to the north.

Duque and Oliveros are named in Companies House records as owning “initial shareholdings”, with the latter named as a person of “significant control” within the company.

Oliveros, a 52-year-old Colombian, describes Britain as her “country of residence”.

On 17 July 2025 Duque was appointed as a director and is also described as resident in the UK. The hiring of the Colombians has had a profound impact on the trajectory of the conflict, analysts say, and its nationals have trained children to be soldiers, as well fighting as snipers and infantrymen.

They have also served as instructors and pilots for the drones that proved instrumental in the fall of El Fasher and during fighting in Kordofan, the region bordering Darfur.

Lewis said: “The war in Sudan is a hi-tech one, with guided weapons and long-range drones causing daily civilian deaths. These weapons require external help to operate. We know that the Colombian mercenary operation has been a major component of this external assistance.”

He added that the involvement of sanctioned individuals in a London firm underlined broader concerns over the lack of rigorous checks undertaken when companies were set up.

“Having a UK company like this is a passport for criminals to do business with legitimate counterparts. It’s still harder to join a gym in most cases than to set up a UK company,” said Lewis.

“As a result, there is a long, well publicised history of UK shell companies being used to broker weapons and military assistance to embargoed actors in Sudan, South Sudan, Libya, North Korea – even to Isis [Islamic State].”

Lewis added that the issue raised concerns over what the British government was doing to ensure UK companies were not involved in the mercenary operation.

A government source said the recent introduction of “mandatory identity verification” for directors and persons with significant control would provide greater assurance about who was setting up, running and controlling UK companies.

New powers for Companies House, they added, had made significant progress in tackling false information entered on the register and improving support to police.

The Colombians’ involvement in Sudan first emerged last year, when an investigation by the Bogotá-based outlet La Silla Vacía revealed that more than 300 former soldiers had been contracted to fight. The revelation prompted an apology from Colombia’s foreign ministry.

One of the mercenaries recently confirmed to the Guardian that he had trained children in Sudan and fought in El Fasher.

The UAE, which has long been accused of arming the RSF, has also been linked to the hiring of Colombian mercenaries.

A report by the investigative organisation the Sentry alleged last month that Emirati business people supplying Colombians to the RSF were linked to a senior UAE government official. The United Arab Emirates has consistently denied these allegations.

A British government spokesperson said: “The UK is calling for an immediate end to atrocities, the protection of civilians, and the removal of barriers to humanitarian access by all parties to the conflict.

“We recently sanctioned RSF commanders for their role in the atrocities in El Fasher,” they said.

A man in military fatigues and helmet operating a mortarBlocks of two nondescript three-storey modern flats facing each other with a large car park between themThe front of an early 20th-century building on a London street with a red telephone box An early 20th-century building in central London.An image of an attack on a camp, with Africans scattering from an area that’s on fire.Distant view of uniformed soldiers in a large group of new-looking pick-up trucks with heavy machine guns mounted on the back in a desert location.Sudanese boys and men lying on the ground in savannah while men with guns stand in the background

Millions head home for Christmas on busiest day of festive getaway

Getty Images A man and a woman sitting in a car. Both are wearing Christmas hats. The man is driving and smiling at the womanGetty Images
Drivers are being advised to allow extra time to travel

Britain's roads, railways and airports are set to be thronged by festive travellers on what is is anticipated to be the busiest day for Christmas trips.

The AA has warned of gridlock on Friday as 24.4 million cars are expected to hit the roads.

It is also expected to be the busiest day of the Christmas period for airports, with 460,000 journeys planned.

Network Rail has also advised travellers to check their journeys and book a seat if possible.

Drivers told to allow extra time

The AA said this Christmas could be the busiest on record for UK roads, and advised drivers to allow extra time to complete their journeys.

The insurance company said most people driving during the festive period travelled less than 100 miles, meaning congestion is likely around motorway interchanges and retail destinations.

AA patrol expert Shaun Jones said patience behind the wheel "will be your best present this year".

"Plan ahead, check your route, and allow extra time," he said.

  • The M27 will be closed between Junction 9 (Whiteley/Park Gate) and Junction 11 (Fareham East/Gosport) from Christmas Eve to 4 January, so anyone travelling in Hampshire should plan alternative routes.

Rail closures

Network Rail also encouraged passengers to allow extra time for train travel. Improvement works taking place over the Christmas period mean several routes will be closed or restricted.

Information on what routes will be closed for repairs can be found on the Network Rail website.

National Rail trains do not run on Christmas Day and only a small number will run on Boxing Day.

Daniel Mann, Director of Industry Operations at the Rail Delivery Group, said: "We encourage customers to reserve seats where possible, bring only luggage that is easy to carry and fits in designated storage areas, and allow extra time for their journeys."

Flights

Friday is expected to be the busiest day of the festive season for airports, but the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) said flying on Christmas Day was becoming more popular.

It advised customers to know their rights in case their flight is cancelled or delayed.

If this happens, airlines are required to support passengers. This can include:

  • Providing food and drink during extended delays
  • Covering accommodation if passengers are delayed overnight
  • Offering a refund or alternative travel if a flight is cancelled

If your flight is cancelled, and it is covered by UK law, your airline must let you choose between either getting a refund or being booked on to an alternative flight.

You can check if your flight is covered under UK law here.

The CAA also said that travellers can minimise their risk of delays by ensuring their cases are packed correctly.

This includes leaving presents unwrapped as they may need to be inspected.

How much more your Christmas dinner will cost this year

Getty Images A mother and her two daughters set the Christmas dinner table. There is a Christmas tree in their kitchenGetty Images
A typical Christmas dinner with all the trimmings will cost slightly more than last year

Turkey and sprouts are synonymous with Christmas dinner and this year a rise in the price of both means the festive feast will cost you slightly more at the supermarket.

A typical turkey dinner with all the trimmings will cost about £32.45, according to research done for the BBC - a £1.24 or nearly 4% rise on last year.

It comes after bird flu led to large numbers of turkeys being culled early, while a drier spring and summer hit sprout harvests.

However, the humble but golden potato and parsnip have gone down in price, along with - if you have any room - Christmas pudding and mince pies. Our seasonal snapshot reflects that overall food price rises are beginning to slow down.

The centre piece to the traditional family feast - the turkey - costs £20, for a standard 10lb (4.55kg) frozen one. The same bird was £18.62 last year - that's a 7.37% rise, according to the research from retail tracking platform Assosia.

The ever-divisive Brussels sprouts went up by more than 9% to 94p a bag, it found.

The data is based on prices on 6 December 2025 and the same date in 2024, across own-brand products from Tesco, Sainsbury's, Asda, Morrisons, Aldi and Lidl.

However, every year as supermarkets compete for our Christmas custom many slash the prices of their bags of veg as low as 8p so there are bargains to be had.

The cost of a supermarket shop is now rising much slower than when food prices spiked sharply following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Turkey prices up after bird flu outbreaks

In Potterspury, near Milton Keynes, hundreds of free-range turkeys usually amble around farmer Susan Gorst, pecking at the grass.

But in November, all bird farmers in England were ordered to keep their flocks indoors and many were culled early to limit the spread of bird flu.

She says turkeys eat more feed when they can't graze outdoors so this pushed up her costs. But she says her customers understand she has to pass this on.

"I think people are now generally expecting an increase on most things year on year," she says.

Susan Gorst Susan, a woman in her 50s or 60s, and her son Freddie, probably 20s or 30s. sitting on hay bales. Susan is holding a live turkey and Freddie has his arms wrapped around two more turkeys and there are about 30 more turkeys on and around the hay bales.Susan Gorst
Susan Gorst and her son Freddie on their turkey farm

The rising price of turkey "could have been a lot worse," according to John Muff, co-owner of Muff's Butchers in Wirral. He estimates it's up by £1-2 per kilo since last Christmas.

"All year round we've seen price increases, almost on a weekly basis, 5p here, 10p there," he says.

Pork has also gone up in price, with pigs in blankets now £2.59, or 5.3% higher than last year.

John says this didn't surprise him. The cost of making their sausages from scratch has seen a "steady increase throughout the year," he says.

John Muff, a butcher, stands at the counter of his shop. He is wearing a grey chef's uniform and a dark apron. He is also wearing a cap. There are Christmas decorations hung above the butcher counter.
Butcher John Muff said the price of turkey has crept up all year

He says "every aspect is going up," from animal feed, energy, transport and wages.

But he thinks higher supermarket prices might be tempting shoppers into a trip to the butchers.

"They're thinking to themselves: If I'm going to pay that sort of price, I may as well come in here and get the proper stuff," he says.

Sprout prices

Whether you celebrate or shun the sprouts at Christmas, the success of this little green veg is highly dependent on the weather.

Alan Steven, a sprout farmer in Fife, says this spring the ground was so dry he had to water his fields before he could plant his seeds - for the first time in 10 years.

He had the cost of irrigating twice more over the summer due to prolonged hot weather.

And so far the winter has been milder which means the sprout plants are more prone to disease, he says.

Alan Steven, a sprout farmer, standing in his field. He is holding two sprouts which he just picked and is showing them to the cameraman. He is wearing green overalls over a black jumper. He is also wearing a hat.
Alan Steven said he had to irrigate his sprout seeds as they were being planted because the ground was so dry

Spud prices hold steady

The price of root vegetables has remained firmly planted - with no change to the cost of carrots - and potatoes and parsnips just a penny cheaper than last year.

Scott Walker, chief executive of GB Potatoes, said planting and harvesting conditions were favourable this year, but the middle of the season, was "one of the driest in modern memory". The summer was the hottest on record in the UK.

Farmers who didn't have irrigation systems would have suffered and those who could water their crops would have had higher electricity and fuel costs, he says.

"We've had more modest rises than we've had over the past couple of years, but costs have still gone up," he says.

Lucy Munns Lucy, a young woman with blonde hair and blue eyes, sitting in a tractor. A wheat field is visible in the backgroundLucy Munns
Lucy Munns grows potatoes, sugar beet, wheat and barley

The trouble with potato prices is you never know what you're going to get, says Lucy Munns, a potato farmer in Cambridgeshire.

She said a good price for her potatoes would be £200 a tonne, but she was anticipating prices as low as £80 in December.

Hot spells while potatoes are growing causes them to be oddly shaped and they can be rejected by supermarkets and fish and chip shops, she says.

Lucy Munns A photo of oddly shaped potatoes fresh out of the ground. One potato looks like three potatoes stuck togetherLucy Munns
Hot weather can cause potatoes to grow in odd shapes

Pudding and mince pies fall in price

Another side dish which saw a slight dip in price was stuffing mix - dropping 1.32% to 50p for 170g.

And lashings of gravy will also be cheaper this year, with gravy granules dropping 7.35% to 91p for 200-300g.

If after the Christmas feast you still have appetite for a sweet treat you'll be glad to hear that Christmas pudding and mince pies are cheaper this year.

A pack of six iced mince pies will cost £1.77, which is 2.75% cheaper than in 2024. A standard 400g pudding comes in at £2.35, or a drop of 7.42%.

It's down to falling flour and sugar prices - there is currently a global sugar surplus.

In the UK, falling sugar, jam and chocolate prices contributed to lower inflation rates in December.

Cost of Living: Tackling it together banner

How to keep costs down

  • Start with a budget: Plan ahead and add up hidden expenses, like tin foil for roasting a turkey.
  • Write a food list: Decide on your must haves and what you might not miss.
  • Plan your leftovers: A next day meal plan will mean less goes to waste
  • Bargain hunt: Look out for online offers as well as yellow sticker items which have been reduced.
  • Use your freezer: Christmas foods that freeze well include butter, meat joints and some cheeses like cheddar.
  • Join up with friends and family: This means you can buy bigger pack sizes, which are often better value.

Read more from the BBC Food team here

AI likely to displace jobs, says Bank of England governor

Getty Images Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, speaking at a press conference - he is holding up both his hand and looking off to his left as if about to react to something - he has short brown hair and glasses and is wearing a dark navy suit Getty Images

The widespread adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is "likely" to displace people from jobs in a similar way seen during the Industrial Revolution, the governor of the Bank of England has said.

Andrew Bailey said the UK needed to have the "training, education, [and] skills in place" so workers could shift into jobs that use AI.

He told the BBC Radio 4's Today programme people looking for a job would find securing employment "a lot easier" if they had such skills.

However, he warned that there was an issue with younger, inexperienced professionals finding it difficult to secure entry-level roles due to AI.

"We do have to think about, what is it doing to the pipeline of people? Is it changing it or not?" he said.

"I think if it's people working with AI, I'm not sure it will change the pipeline, but I think we're right to have a have an eye on that point."

Artificial intelligence has become part of everyday life in recent years and is increasingly being adopted by businesses and the public sector.

The technology allows computers to process large amounts of data, identify patterns and follow detailed instructions about what to do with that information.

However, there are concerns over the impact it may already be having on the jobs market.

Official figures released this week revealed the UK unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in the three months to October, with younger workers particularly affected.

The number of unemployed 18 to 24-year-olds increased by 85,000 in the three months to October, the largest rise since November 2022, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Some have argued rises to the minimum wage and increased taxes has made it less appealing for businesses to hire entry-level staff.

However, some firms have said the growth of AI may eventually lead to fewer junior staff, particulary graduates being hired.

Entry-level professional jobs are thought to be most impacted by AI, particularly in sectors such as law, accountancy and administration.

The boss of accountancy giant PwC recently told the BBC that the firm was scaling back plans to increase its headcount.

"Now we have artificial intelligence. We want to hire, but I don't know if it's going to be the same level of people that we hire - it will be a different set of people," said global chairman Mohamed Kande.

Firms who would have previously contracted PwC consultants to sift through data and documents may now use AI models instead, turning weeks of costly work into minutes.

Mr Bailey said worries over the impact of technology on populations cropped over at various times in history, stretching back centuries to when Queen Elizabeth I was worried about the impact of the invention of the knitting machine on her then subjects.

"As you saw in the Industrial Revolution, now over time, I think we can now sort of look back and say it didn't cause mass unemployment, but it did displace people from jobs and this is important.

"My guess would be that it's most likely that AI may well have a similar effect. So we need to be prepared for that, in a sense."

Mr Bailey said AI was the "most likely source of the next leg up" for UK economic growth.

"In terms of its potential to improve productivity growth, I think it's pretty substantial. It will get used across the economy. How quickly it comes through is another question, history would suggest that it does take some time."

Mr Bailey said the Bank of England, which sets UK interest rates, were using AI but added the institution, along with others, were "probably all still experimenting".

"To get it into sort of mainstream, everyday use will take some time, but it's critically important that we obviously focus on getting the pre-conditions and all the conditions in place for that to happen," he added.

AI bubble fears

Aside from the jobs market being impacted by AI, there are concerns there could be an AI bubble - whether the big tech firms are being overvalued.

The Bank of England has recently sounded the alarm over a potential crash in the value of AI firms reminiscent of previous incidents such as the dotcom bubble.

Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of US bank JP Morgan, told the BBC in October he was "far more worried than others" about the risk of a serious market correction in the coming years.

Mr Bailey told the Today programme that policymakers would "have to watch the valuation question".

However, he did acknowledge that the majority of the big companies were generating cash flow.

"Of course, it's still the case that it doesn't mean they'll all be winners. We're watching it very closely, because we do need to watch, obviously, what the consequences of any sharp unwinding could be."

Faisal Islam: Will pre-Christmas interest rate cut be enough to boost UK economy next year?

Bank of England governor 'encouraged' by falling inflation

The future of the economy can sometimes be seen in minor gestures of a Bank of England governor, such as the arch of his eyebrows. So what to make of Andrew Bailey sporting a rather exuberant festive tie full of Christmas trees at the moment he delivered his so-called "Santa cut"?

It probably means nothing. Just maybe it is a sign that the timing and messaging behind this cut is designed to pump life into a "subdued" economy.

It was a narrow decision, with the governor as the swing voter after he said the UK had "passed the peak of inflation", and the target of 2% now in sight in April rather than early 2027.

Mr Bailey was at pains to say the direction of travel next year remained cuts, but that decisions would now be a closer call.

"We're going to come back to target sooner than we thought. So that's encouraging. All of this is very encouraging, and for me certainly, you know, it was a strong basis to cut today," he said.

"Looking forwards, I do think we'll continue to have something of a gradual downward path... the calls do get closer."

There has been a debate on the Monetary Policy Committee about what a normal level of interest would be, with some members seeing that as low as 3%. Markets interpreted the deliberations of the committee as meaning just two further cuts next year.

Much is up in the air, however, about what the committee said was a "lacklustre" economy, that they forecast is not growing in the current quarter.

The uncertainty around the Budget has now lifted, but businesses told the Bank there had been no rebound yet. The Leader of the Opposition, Kemi Badenoch, said that the cuts showed the economy was on "life support" and rate cuts were "CPR".

Governor Bailey said the Budget measures aimed at containing inflation had helped the Bank's decision to lower interest rates.

"It's part of the reason I can be more confident inflation is going to come down sooner," he said.

The governor has also identified an unusually high rate of savings as holding back the economy, driven by a lack of consumer confidence among older savers in particular. Rate cuts mechanically lower the incentive to save, and help spending.

He said he didn't want to be "judgemental" about how much people save, but that it was true "how confident and cautious" people feel about the global and local economy does affect savings.

More economic policy stability, lower inflation and lower interest rates should help the economy gain some new momentum in the new year. It certainly needs it.

But it might take a lot more for the much-needed jolt of confidence and festive spirit to spread across the economy.

香港大埔火灾受影响业主将获35万港元租金及搬迁补助

香港特区政府将向宏福苑受火灾影响的业主发放每年15万元(港元,下同,2.5万新元)、为期两年的租金补助,以及一笔一次过的5万元搬迁补助。

大埔宏福苑于上月26日发生五级火灾,港府成立的“大埔宏福苑援助基金”总额达到38亿元。据星岛头条、香港01和雅虎新闻等报道,香港政务司副司长卓永兴星期四(12月18日)公布两项支援措施,包括向受影响业主发放每年15万元、为期两年的租金补助,以及一笔5万元的搬迁补助。

港房屋局发言人表示,如业主收取资助后继续居住在过渡性房屋等政府资助单位,预计需要从明年2月开始向营运机构交付租金。

如果业主及租户继续入住酒店或青年宿舍,则需向营运机构缴交租金。

此外,港府也向受影响的租户发放一笔5万元的搬迁补助。由于租户不获租金补助,已入住过渡屋的租户,可获租金豁免至明年5月31日,之后需缴交租金。

政府表示,这次是“最后一个以租户为对象的现金援助”,并指出基金未来将用于长期支援业主的长期需要。

会台湾前阁揆刘兆玄 福建一把手周祖翼重申“闽台亲上亲”

中共福建省委书记周祖翼星期四(12月18日)在福州会见台湾前行政院长刘兆玄,重申两岸一家亲、闽台亲上亲,强调福建将持续深化闽台交流合作,打造台胞台企登陆的第一家园,高质量推进两岸融合发展示范区建设。

今年的两岸企业家峰会星期三(17日)在江苏省会南京落幕后,峰会台湾方面理事长、前行政院长刘兆玄一行续称前往福建省会福州。

据《福建日报》星期五(19日)报道,周祖翼星期四在福州会见两岸企业家峰会台湾方面理事长刘兆玄一行。福建省长赵龙出席会见。

周祖翼代表中共福建省委、省政府对刘兆玄一行表示欢迎,对峰会台湾方面长期以来给予福建发展的大力支持表示感谢。

周祖翼说,两岸一家亲、闽台亲上亲,近年来闽台经贸交往紧密、融合发展越走越实。他表示,福建坚持以通促融、以惠促融、以情促融,持续深化闽台交流合作,打造台胞台企登陆的第一家园,高质量推进两岸融合发展示范区建设。

周祖翼表示,希望峰会充分发挥优势和影响力,进一步促成更多闽台产业合作、人文交流,为促进两岸民众携手共赢作出新贡献。

《福建日报》引述刘兆玄感谢中共福建省委、省政府长期以来给予两岸企业家峰会的关心支持。他表示,峰会将积极为两岸经贸合作搭建平台,促进闽台优势产业融合发展,取得更多丰硕成果。

另据联合新闻网报道,刘兆玄在南京预告,近日将与福建省和宁德时代公司,就两岸电池储能技术与电池回收处理等领域合作交换意见,并研究在福建设立“零碳园区”,盼能带动两岸绿色转型合作。

中国对停留180天以内短期签证申请者免采指纹

中国放宽申请签证免采指纹政策,直至明年底,所有申请中国短期签证者不用再被采指纹。

中国驻新加坡、荷兰、新西兰和加拿大等多国使领馆星期五(12月19日)发布通知,称为进一步便利签证申请人,自即日起至2026年12月31日,中国驻外签证机关对所有申请停留期180日以内的短期签证申请人,免采指纹。

不过,对D字、J1字、Q1字、S1字、X1字及Z字等入境后需办理居留证件的签证申请人,仍按规定采集指纹。

中国自去年9月2日起至今年12月31日,已对申请一次或两次入境的短期签证申请人(停留期180日以内),采取免采指纹政策。

Standard users can upgrade macOS

It’s a simple question: which users can upgrade macOS? It was put to me by Cory, whose son had apparently upgraded their family Mac mini M4 to Tahoe from his standard user account. This article explains how that came about.

Upgrade or update?

Although the two words are sometimes used loosely, in strict senses updating takes macOS up in minor version or patch number, such as 26.0.1 to 26.1 or 26.2, while upgrading moves up to a newer major version, say from 15.7.2 to 26.2. Apple still makes this clear distinction too, although it has all become blurred.

Before it released macOS 12.3, upgrades were different from updates. For a Mac to be upgraded to a new major version, a full installer was downloaded and run, and that required an admin user to authenticate the installation. Updates were smaller and simpler, downloaded through Software Update, and could be installed by any user (apart from Guest).

For the last three years, with the upgrades to Ventura, Sonoma, Sequoia and now Tahoe, whenever possible upgrades have been performed using the update method instead of a full installer. It’s significantly faster, with less to download, decompress and install. Although Apple still claims that “before installation begins, you’re asked to enter your administrator password”, that’s no longer correct, even on Apple silicon Macs.

Who can update macOS?

The requirements for a user to be able to update macOS are:

  • a standard or admin user account on that Mac, and
  • ownership of the boot volume group to be updated.

The first user, or primary admin user, on that Mac is granted a secure token to enable them to take ownership of the boot volume group on that Mac’s internal SSD. Rights of that ownership include

  • being able to change startup security policy for that boot volume group, using Startup Security Utility in Recovery mode;
  • authorising installation of macOS updates and upgrades;
  • being able to initiate Erase All Content and Settings (EACAS);
  • granting secure tokens and ownership to other users.

When that primary admin user creates another user account, a secure token and ownership is handed over to that account, even when it’s only a standard account. That enables subsequent users to automatically unlock FileVault at login, and to authorise the installation of macOS updates. As upgrades now work the same as updates, that means that standard users whose passwords can unlock FileVault (if enabled) can now authorise the installation of macOS upgrades as well as updates.

What do others say?

Search for answers to the question, and you’ll mostly see outdated accounts from before macOS 12.3, and those clearly influenced Google AI, which wrote:
“Any user with a Secure Token and volume ownership can install minor macOS updates (like 14.1 to 14.2), but major macOS upgrades (like Sonoma to Sequoia) typically still require an Administrator password, unless managed by an organization with specific Mobile Device Management (MDM) policies that grant permissions to standard users. Essentially, standard users can update, but major upgrades need admin power, though MDM can override this for managed devices.”

(For interest, Grok didn’t even understand the question, and simply listed models of Mac that can be upgraded to Tahoe.)

That has been wrong for over three years now, but that error is still widely propagated.

What can you do?

If you want to give another user access to your Mac as a standard user, but don’t want them to update and/or upgrade macOS, you will need to explain this to them, and caution them not to succumb to Apple’s aggressive schemes to trick users to upgrade.

Reference

Apple Platform Deployment Guide.

I’m very grateful to Cory for asking this question.

A Reddit Post Led to a Breakthrough in the Brown Shooting Investigation

A Reddit user provided information that helped identify Claudio Manuel Neves Valente as not only the suspect in the campus shooting, but also the murder of an M.I.T. professor.

© Christopher Capozziello for The New York Times

A vehicle is loaded onto a tow truck outside the storage facility in Salem, N.H., where the Brown University shooting suspect’s body was found on Thursday.

那些原本是废话的常识|县城编制,锁死多少人的人生

CDT 档案卡
标题:县城编制,锁死多少人的人生
作者:叶克飞
发表日期:2025.12.17
来源:那些原本是废话的常识
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

昨天,“就叫熊太行也行”公号针对河南鲁山县女教师婚礼当天跳楼一事,推送了一篇《这几年女性想逃婚,确实越来越难了》。文中写道:“很多被父母逼婚的女性都是好学生,不见得是成绩很好,而是从小就乖。很多乖,不是本性,而是规训出来的。”

女孩在家庭的过度控制下,日子会更难。如果生在封闭地区的县城或农村,还要支持弟弟购房,女孩的处境就更凄惨。所以熊太行写道:“大城市是庇护逃避不幸婚姻、不行家庭的年轻人的最好空间。女孩子如果和爸妈关系不好,那就不要在家乡县城考编,因为这会让你跑不掉,能被父母随时找到,甚至用你的工作来要挟。一定要考编,就走远一点,让他们跑去控制你的时候,身边没有得力助手,没有可以帮腔的亲戚。”

我也在朋友圈里写道:“我认识的不少同代际女性(70后和80后),都有逃离家庭和老家,揣着几百块钱只身前往北上广深的经历(甚至还一个人带着孩子)。但在考公考编已近疯狂的当下,那些逼婚逼生的悲剧事件中的女性,多半都离不开自己的编制——小城市或小县城的编制。”

疯狂考公考编从来就不只是经济层面的问题,不仅仅是经济下滑导致的追求稳定。它会传导到各个领域,造成全方位的后退。

1978年后,农村女性的自杀率逐渐下滑,在90年代已降到很低。这当然跟经济发展和社会变革有关,在画地为牢、户口和集体约束个体一切的年代,女性没有离开农村的渠道,更没有经济主动权,即使婚姻不幸福甚至存在家暴,也只能逆来顺受。1978年后,社会逐步开放,无数农村女性获得经济自主与地理迁徙的自由,选择进城打工,离开了原有的人际圈子。这种身体与精神的双重移动,打破了两千年来女性被绑定在土地与宗族中的命运。

掌握了经济主动权,也就有了自主选择幸福、好好过日子的权利。这种权利并不是说所有人都会抛弃原有家庭,因为哪怕是两夫妻一起离开农村进城打工,喘息空间都比留在农村大得多,幸福几率也大得多。

但如今,当大城市无法容纳人们的梦想,社会上升通道收窄,人们要退而求次回到县城这类封闭系统,将体制内视为唯一安稳选择时,其实也交出了自主权。被编制锁死的不仅仅是梦想,对于很多成长于封闭压抑家庭的女性来说,还包括自己的人生。一旦进入这个系统,个体便与特定地域、特定生活方式深度绑定。

在小县城,编制意味着稳定工作和相对安心的生活。但它的封闭性也限制了人们(不仅仅是女性)的选择,需要面对严苛的社会期望和家庭压力,被迫走上婚姻或生育之路,牺牲自己的梦想与追求。

我一直都说“传统文化是个宝,文盲无赖都说好”,在中国社会和家庭的许多冲突中,文化层次、认知水平越低的人,越是讲不出真正的道理,就越喜欢搬出“传统”来试图压制对方。面对这种人,只需要引用鲁迅那句“从来如此,便对么”就可以反驳,但稍有生活经验就知道,谁也无法在认知上挽救他们。

“传统”就是文盲和无赖们最好的武器,他们依托于所谓的传统,将女性的价值与家庭和丈夫的成就挂钩,忽视女性个人的追求和梦想。县域社会的熟人网络与道德监控,世代相传的价值观念、有限的资讯渠道,又会加剧这些压迫。

考公考编原本充其量只能算是一种经济理性,但如今早已被人异化为生存教条,变成是否懂事、是否成熟的判断标准。在这种情况下,不管女性还是男性,人生实际上已经被一种标准深度绑定。在经济上依附性极大,一份工资就能将人困在原地。社会评价当然也是单一的,“体制内工作”成为评价个人价值的核心标尺,脱离这一轨道意味着社会地位的直线下降。“稳定”被内化为最高价值时,对心理也没有任何好处,因为任何冒险与改变都会引发强烈的焦虑。

县城女性所受冲击相对更大。县城处于城乡连续体的特殊位置:它既有城市的行政架构与公共服务,又保留了农村的紧密人际网络与传统观念。在这里,个体的行为受到来自家庭、单位、社区的多重凝视。一个体制内女性的婚恋选择、生育计划、甚至衣着打扮,都可能成为公共讨论的议题。女性一旦偏离规范(离婚、晚婚、不生育、职业流动),便成为舆论靶子,进而影响家庭声誉与经济资源分配。这种无处不在的“道德监控”,构成了无形的压迫机制。

在县域婚恋市场中,女性编制身份常常被物化为“优质婚姻筹码”,这反而加剧了家庭对其婚育选择的干预。鲁山县女教师的悲剧背后,正是这种“编制优越性”与个人意志的剧烈冲突——社会期待她因编制而“安分守己”,却无视她作为独立个体的情感需求与人生规划。

前两年有个一度火爆但实际上很可笑的说法——县城婆罗门。它刻意强调县城错综复杂的人际关系和体制内的“代际传承”,将县域体制内群体描绘为生活安逸、社会地位优越的“地方贵族”。这种叙事强调他们低于一线城市的生活成本、高于平均水平的稳定性以及在地方社会网络中的中心位置。

这在某种程度上当然是事实,但“安逸”绝非永远。在经济联动如此紧密的现代社会,没有真正的避风港,县域的短暂安逸,只是因为它对市场和经济的反应比大城市慢一拍而已。一线城市的问题终究会传导至小城市、县城和农村,而且当这些问题到来时,县域和农村原有的封闭守旧等缺陷会放大甚至激化。

县城的“体制内安逸”,隐藏着深刻的生存困境。所谓的“社会地位”高度依赖于体制身份,个体价值被简化为职位与单位,县域资源有限导致的机会匮乏也被“安逸”叙事所掩盖,更何况这种生活模式的代价是个人选择空间的极大压缩。

对女性而言,县城神话更具欺骗性。它许诺了一种“体面”的生存方式,却往往要求女性接受传统性别角色的全面回归。事业上的“玻璃天花板”比大城市更为坚硬,家庭责任的压力更为直接,个人发展路径更为狭窄。编制带来的“安全感”与性别角色期待结合,形成了一套完整的规训体系。

鲁山女教师的悲剧再次揭开那个原本清晰但很多人一辈子也看不明白的事实:当社会将所有人推向同一条狭窄通道时,最先被挤压的往往是那些已经处于结构性不利位置的群体。当社会流动通道收窄,考公考编变成理性选择,且地方文化以家族与父权为中介时,女性会同时遭遇经济与人身自主的双重窒息。编制不应成为人生的囚笼,县域不应成为观念的孤岛,稳定不应成为可能性的坟墓,现代文明社会的每个人都应保有说“不”的权利与离开的勇气。

建设性意见|海南封关,对你最直接的好处可能是便宜牛肉干

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标题:海南封关,对你最直接的好处可能是便宜牛肉干
作者:项栋梁
发表日期:2025.12.18
来源:建设性意见
CDS收藏:公民馆
版权说明:该作品版权归原作者所有。中国数字时代仅对原作进行存档,以对抗中国的网络审查。详细版权说明

12月18日,海南全岛正式封关,相信大家都看到很多新闻报道。但是很多读者都没搞懂一个问题:

这跟普通人有什么关系呢?

抛开官方的宏大解读和复杂的关税规则,我可以给大家一个贴近现实生活的预期:

明年起,大家就能在全国各地买到一些产地为海南的,比当前市场价便宜些的牛肉干。

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请注意,这里面有几个和大家相关的重点:

一是不用去海南就能享受到这一改变;二是它能带来切实可感知的优惠;三是它属于绝大部分人都能日常消费的产品。

相对应的,海南封关带来的一些理论上的变化其实距离大家的日常生活是有点远的。

第一,封关之后有很多进口商品在海南全岛都免关税了,但这些商品都是需要你本人或者亲友到海南岛现场购买的,去旅游或者出差才能享受到。而且因为每人10万元的实名额度,所以海南职业代购是行不通的。对于全国大部分整年不去海南的消费者来说,封关带来的这一变化是感受不到的。

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更重要的是,在封关以前,海南就有离岛免税店存在多年,虽然封关之后免税品范围扩大了一些,年度免税额度提高了一些,但对去海南的游客来说其实今年买和明年买的区别很小的。

第二,关于在海南岛买免税品是否最便宜,其实是不一定的……

如果是相对中国内地的零售渠道来说,在海南岛买进口免税品当然是会便宜些。但相对海外代购、海外直邮、保税区跨境商品网购来说,海南免税品的价格优势其实并不明显,在某些品类是价格持平甚至更贵一些的。

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所以,对于购买进口护肤品、奢侈品的用户来说,海南封关前后的区别其实真的不大。

第三,对于那些需要用到进口零部件的大件、高价值工业品来说,理论上,如果能安排在海南生产,直接采用免税的进口零部件,那的确是会显著影响生产成本与零售价格。

然而实际上并不太可行。

一方面,汽车、工业设备等产品的零部件现在绝大部分都是中国供应全球,很少从国外进口零部件了,封关后的关税优势缺乏用武之地;另一方面,海南省工业制造基础相对薄弱,生态环境承载能力也比较有限,大规模的汽车制造、装备制造等产业是很难发展起来的。

所以,海南封关与否对于中国工业产品的影响是很小的,至少你我作为普通消费者是感知不到的。

真正能让大家感知到的变化,就是我前面所说的,会出现在以农产品加工为代表的消费品领域,比如牛肉干、榴莲干之类产品。

目前我国常规从南美国家进口牛肉,关税是12%,如果进口的是冷冻整牛,关税是25%,封关之后,把牛肉进口到海南,能直接省掉这部分关税,一柜牛肉能省下十几万成本。

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但是请注意,这些免税进口到海南的牛肉是不可以直接卖到内地的,不然所有的进口牛肉都会到海南兜一圈免税了。按照海南封关的政策,这些进口原料必须在海南加工增值30%以上才能免税卖到内地市场。

把牛肉加工成牛肉干,就是最典型的场景。

据海关数据,近年来中国进口牛肉货值从2020年的约28.14亿元增至2024年的56.95亿元,占到国内市场的37%。即便加上关税,进口牛肉还是比国产的便宜,如果不是有进口配额限制,国产牛肉只怕会全军覆没。

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当前我们在市场上买到的牛肉加工产品,包括那些打着内蒙古品牌的牛肉干,有相当一部分其实都是以进口牛肉为原料生产的。

海南封关之后,进口牛肉的价格优势会更加凸显,占比预计会进一步提高,我们就更容易买到比现在便宜的牛肉干了。除了牛肉以外,鲍鱼海参等海产品、榴莲等高价值水果也是同样的道理,进口到海南加工一下,便宜又量大。

大家也别激动以为自己发现了什么了不得的发财机会,现实中各大企业早就在海南占位了……

海南封关之前已经有一些企业提前布局肉类加工厂,年产值超10亿元。目前还有龙大美食、煌上煌、首农集团、中储粮等一批项目在抓紧建设,海南洋浦港计划在未来3-5年打造超过500亿产值的国际食品加工产业集群。

总结一下:

海南封关的确是会给海南岛带去一些产业竞争优势,但从经济大盘子来看,从整个中国的经济基本面来看,中短期影响是不太明显的。

对于内地的普通消费者来说,海南封关的确会带来一些更优惠的产品,主要体现在一些以进口农产品加工的消费品领域,总体来说,对人们生活的影响也并不明显。

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