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约 20 万元起售,「丐版」特斯拉即将入华,舒适配置全砍

特斯拉正计划将标准版(廉价版) Model 3/Y 引入中国市场。

上周, 特斯拉中国官网曾短暂出现了标准版 Model Y 的页面,但目前已经被撤下。

据接近特斯拉的消息人士透露,这一经过大幅配置调整的入门版车型将在近期进入国内市场,预计由 Model 3 打头阵,Model Y 紧随其后。

此前标准版 Model 3/Y 已经在北美市场发售,Model Y 标准版价格为 39990 美元(约合人民币 28.4 万元),Model 3 标准版价格为 36990 美元(约合人民币 26.3 万元)。

若参照约 5000 至 5500 美元的降幅比例推算,进入中国后,Model 3 标准版的起售价可能降至 20 万元左右,Model Y 则有望锁定在 23 万元区间。

保留「工具」,剥离「享受」

随着标准版的出现,特斯拉对车辆的命名体系也做了调整,在入门标准版之上是 Premium (臻享) 版本,即原来的 Long Range(长续航版),再往上则是 Performance(性能版)。

▲ 从左到右分别是标准版(后驱)、臻享版(后驱和四驱)、性能版(四驱)

与现款车型相比,标准版在外观、内饰及舒适性配置上进行了大范围的精简。

以 Model Y 标准版为例,新车具有辨识度的贯穿式灯条被移除,照明系统整合进两侧小灯,前保险杠造型微调。轮毂配置回归基础,18 英寸成为标配,车漆颜色也进一步收缩,仅灰色免费,黑白两色需额外加价。

配置选择上,大轮毂不再是标配,18 寸轮毂成为入门首选,19 寸则变为选配项;车漆方面仅保留黑白灰三色,且只有灰色免费,选装白、黑分别需加价 1000 与 1500 美元。

座舱内部的变动更为明显。

座椅材质回归织物,取消了前排座椅通风,后排座椅折叠、后视镜折叠及方向盘调节均退回手动模式。中控台设计采用了与 Cybertruck 类似的开放式储物槽风格。

舒适性配置上,后排触控屏、低音炮、车载收音机以及 HEPA 生化过滤系统均未保留,扬声器数量减少至 7 个,悬架系统也降级为被动减震器。

唯一称得上「优化」的改动出现在车顶——取消全景天窗后,特斯拉 Model Y 标准版车顶增加了内衬和隔音材料,称这样比直接更换为金属车顶更具「成本效益」。

核心的三电系统也做出了相应调整。受限于电池容量缩水约 10% 至 69.5kWh,Model 3 和 Model Y 的续航里程降至 516 公里左右,零百加速时间也有所延长。不过,底盘响应、转向手感以及三电管理系统等涉及驾驶本质的特性并未受损。

总体来讲,特斯拉 Model 3/Y 标准版更多的保留了驾驶工具的属性,剥离几乎所有非必要的舒适性溢价。

FSD,从买断转向订阅

在标准版车型中,Autopilot 的功能被进一步拆解。

辅助转向功能被移除,车辆在开启驾驶辅助时仅提供纵向的速度控制(ACC),无法实现横向的车道保持。这意味着在高速或环路驾驶中,用户需要全程控制方向盘。

这种功能的缺失并非源于硬件阉割。标准版车型依然搭载了完整的摄像头和传感器组,完全具备高阶辅助驾驶的能力。这种「软限制」更像是为 FSD(完全自动驾驶能力)的订阅服务预留入口。

而在 1 月 14 日下午,马斯克宣布,2026 年 2 月 14 日后全球将停止 FSD 买断版本销售,全面转向月度订阅。

这一转变的意图并不难理解——特斯拉期望将软件收入从一次性买卖彻底转化为持续性的 SaaS(软件即服务)利润。

从数据层面看,特斯拉累计交付的 2000 万辆汽车中,FSD 订阅用户约为 1000 万。50% 的订阅比例并不足以支撑极度依赖数据喂养和算法迭代的自动驾驶技术,马斯克显然需要更高的渗透率。

况且,在技术尚未完全成熟的当下,消费者往往不愿为一项「期货」功能支付数万元的高昂买断费。相比之下,订阅制降低了尝鲜门槛,用户可以灵活选择,这无疑有助于扩大 FSD 的用户基数。

FSD V14.2 版本的优秀表现或许也给了马斯克一些底气。

在最近北美市场的实测中,V14 展现出了惊人的「类人」直觉:它不仅彻底解决了以往版本在复杂路口的犹豫感,实现了「零迟疑」的变道决策,更在狭窄街道博弈、环岛通行以及应对攻击性驾驶行为时表现得如同老司机般丝滑。

对于资本市场而言,这种模式也更具吸引力。订阅制带来的经常性收入(ARR)将显著拉高公司的市盈率估值。

参考此前海外 FSD 约 99 美元/月的价格,国内订阅价格推测可能在 400-600 元/月区间。

综合来看,标准版车型通过移除基础辅助驾驶功能,实际上在倒逼对智驾有需求的用户转向订阅模式,从而将一次性卖车的低频交易,转化为高频、高毛利的 SaaS(软件即服务)持续性收入,最终拉高特斯拉在资本市场的估值体系。

并非「救命稻草」

特斯拉推出标准版车型的初衷显而易见:在主要车型周期老化的背景下,试图通过价格下探来刺激需求,稳住销量基本盘。

然而,从北美市场的先行数据来看,这一策略的效果并不如预期般乐观。

据考克斯汽车(Cox Automotive)数据,尽管标准版车型在第四季度支撑了部分交付量,但特斯拉 11 月的总销量同比仍下滑了近 23%。

行业分析指出,标准版车型并未带来足够的增量用户,反而在一定程度上「蚕食」了高端版本的销量,尤其是 Model 3。

▲特斯拉近几年的交付数据,左侧为交付量,右侧为生产量 制图:CNBC

这意味着,消费者要么对简陋的配置不买账,要么原本打算购买长续航版的客户为了省钱选择了标准版,导致整体利润率承压。

这种「叫好不叫座」的风险,在中国市场可能会被进一步放大。

面对吉利、比亚迪、小米、理想等竞争对手在智能化和豪华配置上的持续投入,Model Y 在 2025 年已让出了年度销冠的位置。

中国新能源市场有着全球最卷的配置竞争环境。在 20 万至 25 万元的价格带,吉利、比亚迪、小米、小鹏等竞品都在疯狂堆砌舒适性配置和智能化硬件。

相比之下,特斯拉标准版不仅移除了座椅通风等高频使用功能,甚至将方向盘调节和后视镜折叠退回手动模式,这种近乎「毛坯」的配置水平,与中国消费者对「智能豪华」的既有认知存在巨大错位。

对于特斯拉而言,Model Y 在中国市场过去三年虽然维持了 45 万辆左右的年销量,但并未实现显著增长,已然进入存量博弈阶段。标准版车型如果无法通过低价打动对价格敏感的增量人群,反而可能因为体验的大幅降级而稀释品牌价值。

一旦「低价」策略在配置敏感的中国市场失效,特斯拉的销量不仅难以突破现有的稳态区间,甚至可能因为产品力竞争力的相对下滑,面临份额被进一步瓜分的风险。

在这个时间节点,标准版看来并不像是能救特斯拉的那根「稻草」。

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旧金山停电致 Waymo 瘫痪,马斯克贴脸补刀:我们不受影响

特斯拉的 Robotaxi 就没有受到旧金山停电的影响。

马斯克在社交媒体上的这句冷嘲热讽,把刚因意外停摆的 Waymo 推向了尴尬的境地。

12 月 20 日周六那天,旧金山一座变电站起火引发了大范围轮流停电,全市约三分之一的区域瞬间陷入瘫痪。对于自诩老司机的 Waymo 来说,这成了最难堪的一天——当路口的红绿灯悉数熄灭,不知所措的 Waymo 无人车全都停在路上不动了。

更要命的是,由于大规模断电干扰了无线通信网络,原本用于托底的云端远程接管也彻底失灵了。

数百辆无人车在路中心集体趴窝,有的被困在十字路口,后面排起长龙。Waymo 发言人苏珊娜·菲利翁解释称这是由于公用事业基础设施重大故障导致的,「为了乘客安全必须暂时停运」。这场混乱最终靠着人工拖车一辆辆挪走才得以平息,而那些原本被视为自动驾驶标杆的车辆,这个时候成了旧金山街头体型最大的路障。

尽管 Waymo 近期频频强调自己正在转向世界模型,试图通过模拟大规模场景来提升 AI 的常识判断力,但在面对基建全面失效这种极端状况时,算法的容错率依然显得有些苍白。

马斯克之所以能够如此迅速地在社交平台补刀,是因为特斯拉在自动驾驶的推进路线上采取了更为灵活的策略。

特斯拉之所以没受到停电影响,核心在于 FSD 系统本身的应对能力。经过数十亿公里的真实数据训练,基于纯视觉方案的 FSD 已经学会了如何像人类一样理解交通信号灯失效时的通行逻辑。

即便在旧金山的运营中,特斯拉仍需在副驾配备安全监督员,但在停电当晚,特斯拉的无人车依旧可以在没有红绿灯引导且网络波动的环境下,依然能够自主完成观察和通过的动作。

就在旧金山停电的前一周,特斯拉正式在奥斯汀启动了完全无人的 Robotaxi 测试。根据马斯克本人确认的消息,这些在奥斯汀街道上运行的 Model Y 车内既没有安全监督员也没有乘客。这意味着特斯拉已经开始兑现三季度财报电话会议上的承诺——在年底前移除安全监督员。

摩根士丹利分析认为,这种成功移除安全监督员的能力是验证特斯拉 Robotaxi 战略的最重要催化剂。

他们在研报中指出,凭借垂直整合的技术栈和计划于 2026 年量产的 Cybercab,特斯拉可实现每英里 0.59 美元的运营成本,显著低于 Waymo 的 0.75 美元。

不过,马斯克在社交平台上的意气风发,倒也掩盖不了他在 FSD 商业授权上的焦虑。他曾多次向同行抛出授权橄榄枝,甚至吐槽那些拒绝他的车企「已经疯了」。但对于福特、通用这些老牌巨头来说,这是一场关于生存权和话语权的博弈。

特斯拉的授权方案带有极强的排他性,第三方车企如果想要接入,必须同步采购特斯拉自研的硬件并严格遵循其传感器布局。这在硬件架构和供应链控制权上,几乎等于让其他厂商交枪。

▲特斯拉 Robocab  量产版近期的谍照

另一方面,车企们也非常清楚,智能化水平不仅定义了产品,更决定了一家公司的性质:究竟是靠规模效应赚取硬件差价的传统制造业,还是靠算法资产和数据闭环撑起高溢价的 AI 科技公司。

反观中国市场,华为等智驾方案供应商能够获得车企的青睐,很大程度上是因为其合作模式更为灵活且具备极强的本土供应链优势。相比之下,特斯拉那种全家桶式的强硬授权在北美市场遭到了集体已读不回。这种局面迫使马斯克不得不通过 Robotaxi 这种自营模式来证明 FSD 的价值。

2026 年被认为是自动驾驶争夺圣杯的关键年。届时特斯拉的 Cybercab 将采用全新的制造工艺投入量产,目标是到 2035 年建立起百万辆级别的车队规模。旧金山这次停电提醒着所有玩家,无论算法在模拟器里表现得多么完美,最终都要回到那个充满了未知和红绿灯故障的真实世界里寻找答案。

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Explainer: Preferences

When you run a command tool you invoke its options in the command you enter. Those options are supplied each time you run the tool, and don’t persist. Apps are different, in having a GUI that usually offers the user options, and in relying on information that persists until you next run that app. Those are its preferences, settings or defaults, depending on how you look at them.

In traditional Unix, persistent preferences may be implemented as configurations, defined in a plain text config file. In classic Mac OS window settings and a great deal more were saved as resources, in the resource fork of the app or its documents. This resulted in one neat feature that’s seldom seen in macOS today, saving a document’s window settings to its file, so they will be reused the next time that document is opened.

One of the innovations in NeXTSTEP was the human-readable property list used to store serialised objects such as preferences. These consist of designated variables used by the app that are converted into a representation that can be expressed in text. For example, if an app lets the user decide whether to use US or metric units of measurement, that could be stored in memory as a Boolean variable, true or false, and serialised as the word true or false in a property list used to store the app’s preferences.

Contents

Accommodating all the preferences needed by an app usually requires a dictionary of those serialised values, each given a key for identification, and having an explicit or implicit data type. Thus, that user option might become
key: metricUnits
value: true, a Boolean with two possible values.

Mac OS X replaced the old NeXTSTEP format for property lists with two formatting schemes, XML and JSON, with XML the standard for app preferences. This is a file containing dictionaries of key-value pairs representing the serialised data:
<dict>
<key>metricUnits</key>
<true/>
<key>filePrefix</key>
<string>MyFile</string>
</dict>

Initially, all property lists were stored as plain text, but that’s woefully inefficient, so between Mac OS X 10.2 and 10.4 a more compact binary format replaced that, and remains the standard today, as implemented in the UserDefaults API.

cfprefsd

Although developers can handle their app’s defaults/preferences with their own code if they wish, macOS provides the defaults server cfprefsd, and that convenient API that is used by the great majority of apps. Under that, early in an app’s initialisation cfprefsd automatically opens that app’s preferences, then loads its key-value pairs to make them available to the app as it’s setting itself up.

cfprefsd is transparent to the developer, whose code simply accesses key-value pairs as they are required. cfprefsd may opt to keep the whole preference file in memory, and manage it however it sees fit. Thus the property list’s contents on disk may not represent those held in memory for the app, and any changes to the property list file may be overwritten when cfprefsd saves changed values from memory.

For a simple app, working with cfprefsd should also be straightforward. The app’s preference property list is opened by cfprefsd shortly after the app is launched, and the app’s code works through UserDefaults to make any changes to key-value pairs while the app is running. As the app is shut down, cfprefsd updates the preference file, and the user is once again free to change or delete that property list as they wish. However, there’s ample scope for that to become more complicated, or to misuse it.

Problems

Many apps today aren’t that simple in their structure, and use helper apps and other executable code that may still be running with access to the app’s preferences even though the main app is shut down. When the user thinks it’s safe to modify the contents of that property list, it may still be in the care of cfprefsd. The preferred approach then is to use the defaults command tool, which should work with cfprefsd rather than competing with it.

In the past, UserDefaults and cfprefsd weren’t always reliable, and some developers worked around their problems with a combination of the official API and performing their own direct manipulation of preference files. Those dangerous practices should have died out now.

Because an app’s preferences are accessed early as it’s being launched, any bugs or incompatibilities in those key-value pairs can have fatal effects before the app is fully open. For example, if a new version of an app reuses an existing preference key with a different data type, if it reads an old version of its preferences, that will throw an error. If that’s not handled well, that can cause the new version of the app to crash when launched.

Fortunately, all apps have to be able to create their own preference file for when they’re first run. There’s scope for further bugs there, when the file created isn’t updated to work with changed key-value pairs in a newer version of the app. That may result in an app that crashes when launched even when there’s no existing preference file saved, a problem for which there’s no workaround.

Finally, many apps have multiple preference files. If they run in a sandbox, the copy they use normally is in the Data/Library/Preferences folder in their container, in ~/Library/Containers. But they may also have a different property list in ~/Library/Preferences, and sometimes a master copy in /Library/Preferences as well. While I’m sure cfprefsd knows which to access, you may need to check by inspecting each file’s timestamps.

UserDefaults have improved significantly with SwiftUI, further integrating persistent storage of preferences. Although they can still trip up the unwary, provided you understand how they work and don’t try fighting the system, they should seldom cause substantial problems.

Further reading

UserDefaults (Apple)
Preferences and Settings Programming Guide (Apple) from 2013
Thomas Tempelmann’s Prefs Editor works with cfprefsd

Should you repair permissions?

For much of the last 25 years, macOS has had ill-defined and pervasive problems that have often been attributed to incorrect permissions in various parts of the file system. As a result, one of the common panaceas has been to repair those permissions, using procedures that have changed over those years.

Repair disk permissions

Until the introduction of System Integrity Protection (SIP) in 10.11 El Capitan, these problems generally resulted from files within the system acquiring incorrect permissions. To address this, Disk Utility had a feature to check and repair permissions of all major parts of the system, based on information contained in BoM files for system updates and installations. Repairing permissions in this way became one of the main panaceas in those older versions.

Repairing permissions is no longer the panacea that it once was, but is part of checking general disk health.

Although primarily intended to deliver better security protection, one of the benefits of SIP was that it largely prevented system files from gaining incorrect permissions, and the feature to repair them was removed from Disk Utility. In any case, because of SIP it was no longer possible for Disk Utility to change the permissions of files that were protected by SIP.

Reset user permissions

When macOS 10.12 Sierra was released, a different problem appeared, in which permissions were apparently set incorrectly not in system files generally, but in the user’s Home folder, specifically in ~/Library/Preferences. To address this Apple added a new verb to the already complex command tool diskutil, resetUserPermissions, and described how to use this in a support note. It’s perhaps no coincidence that this new problem appeared at about the same time that the cfprefsd service took on management of those preference files, and just one year after repairing disk permissions ceased.

At that time, the following problems were attributed by Apple to incorrect permissions in ~/Library/Preferences:

  • changes to preference settings, particularly those for System Preferences, do not ‘stick’;
  • changes made to the Dock do not ‘stick’;
  • you are asked to authenticate when trying to move or alter some folders in your Home folder;
  • when trying to save, you are told that the file is locked, or that you don’t have permission;
  • Preview, TextEdit, and App Store apps (which are sandboxed) may crash when opened;
  • alerts appear warning that the startup disk has no more space available for app memory;
  • Safari or SafariDAVClient use large amounts of resources (memory);
  • the Mac runs very slowly;
  • iTunes cannot sync a device;
  • there are problems with Photos or iPhoto libraries, including inability to import into the library, or forgetting the library each time the app is opened.

Most if not all of those could have been attributable to problems resulting from bugs in cfprefsd.

Repair Home permissions

Five years ago, Apple changed its recommendations to include running a new tool repairHomePermissions in Recovery mode, then re-installing macOS. Shortly afterwards, when Big Sur was in beta in June 2020, Apple withdrew that support note and all reference to repairing permissions, although the tool is still available in Recovery mode even on Apple silicon Macs.

Running repairHomePermissions from Terminal in Recovery launches a GUI app to repair permissions on a selected Home folder on the Data volume. However, I strongly recommend that you don’t try using this, as you’ll end up with the user being locked out of every folder in their Home folder. I have tried it three times in virtual machines, and each time I have had to discard that VM because of the problems it caused.

Delete a corrupt preference file

Regardless of those, there are still occasions when preference files can cause problems. These typically occur when a corrupt or damaged preference file causes an app or other code to crash, usually when it’s being launched. Although these are now far less common, and the SSV ensures that system files can’t become corrupted as they did in the days before SIP, it’s useful to know how to deal with them.

On most occasions, a preference file can be deleted in the normal way, either in Finder or Terminal, and it won’t return until that app is run again, as it won’t currently be managed by cfprefsd. The alternative is to use defaults:
defaults delete com.mycompany.appname
deletes all the key-value pairs within the preference file for com.mycompany.appname, leaving just the empty property list. This has the advantage that it can be used when cfprefsd is managing that file’s contents, so should always be reliable. Provided the app handles preferences correctly using UserDefaults, it should be able to repopulate the empty property list the next time that app is launched.

One significant caution is when working with files inside ~/Library/Containers,~/Library/Group Containers,~/Library/Daemon Containers and similar managed folders. Because these form sandboxes, macOS manages them differently and tampering with their contents is likely to have unintended effects, so is best avoided, although the defaults command should still be safe.

Summary

  • Repairing disk permissions on system files ceased with SIP in El Capitan.
  • Repairing permissions on Home folder preference files is no longer recommended by Apple, since Big Sur.
  • Safe and robust deletion of contents of a preference file can be performed using defaults delete.
  • Don’t tamper with files inside ~/Library/Containers, ~/Library/Group Containers and similar folders.
  • Never be tempted to run repairHomePermissions in Recovery mode.

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