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New Hampshire’s GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte draws her first major challenger

Cinde Warmington launched a repeat bid for governor of New Hampshire on Wednesday, giving Democrats their first major challenger to GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte in the purple state.

Warmington, a former state executive councilor, ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2024, losing the Democratic nomination to former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig who then went on to lose to Ayotte. She now enters a relatively open Democratic field, with just one other declared candidate.

In a launch video posted to her campaign website, Warmington attacked Ayotte for “making your life more expensive.” She also accused the Republican of not standing up to President Donald Trump’s attempts to open an ICE detention facility in the state.

“I’ll stand up to Trump when he jacks up health care costs and tariffs. I’ll say ‘no’ to ICE’s warehouse. I’ll work for our small businesses and I’ll make sure we don’t have a sales or income tax,” Warmington said in the video. WMUR first reported her launch.

Ayotte, for her part, has clashed with Trump. She has criticized the lack of transparency around the ICE warehouse and forced the resignation of a state official who had been communicating with the Trump administration without alerting the governor. Her refusal to redistrict last year led the White House to weigh putting up a primary challenger against her.

Ayotte spokesperson John Corbett blasted Warmington in a statement, saying the former health care lobbyist “chose to make money off big pharmaceutical companies who hurt Granite Staters, and she is absolutely disqualified from serving as our Governor.”

Democrats are bullish they can block Ayotte from a second term, emboldened by their party’s wins in the off-year elections. But they face an uphill battle in a blue-leaning battleground state that routinely elects Republican governors while sending all-Democratic delegations to Congress.

Recent history is not on Democrats’ side: The party thrice failed to unseat Ayotte’s predecessor, Republican Gov. Chris Sununu. And prognosticators rate the seat as “likely Republican” this year.

Democrats may also face another messy primary just two years after Warmington and Craig waged a bruising battle to be their party’s nominee. For now, just Warmington and Democrat Jon Kiper, who finished a distant third in the 2024 race, have declared their candidacies. But Democratic Portsmouth Mayor Deaglan McEachern has been publicly weighing a bid for governor as recently as this month.

A University of New Hampshire survey from January showed Ayotte leading both men in hypothetical general-election matchups; it did not test her against Warmington. Ayotte notched a 50-percent approval rating in the poll, though 44 percent of likely voters said she did not deserve to be reelected compared to 42 percent who did.

© AP

Shapiro grows his donor network ahead of 2028

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is using his book tour and 2026 reelection campaign to further build out a national fundraising network that could prove quite useful in a potential 2028 run.

The governor held a fundraising event over lunch while visiting Massachusetts for his book tour last month, two people familiar with the planning for it confirmed — making it at least the third fundraiser he attended in the last year in the deep-blue state with deep-pocketed donors who have long bankrolled presidential contenders. One of the others was held at the home of Jewish philanthropist and New England Patriots president Jonathan Kraft in April, details of which have not previously been reported. Shapiro attended another on Nantucket, a summer fundraising mecca, in July, according to an attendee and invitations obtained by POLITICO.

They add to an extensive list of networking events for the possible White House aspirant who’s long been a prolific fundraiser within and beyond Pennsylvania.

He amassed $23 million in 2025 with the help of $2.5 million from former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg; $1 million from a Soros family PAC, $500,000 from James and Kathryn Murdoch, the left-leaning son and daughter in law of Rupert Murdoch; and over $120,000 from Kraft and his father, New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft. That’s helped him build a $30 million war chest to unleash this year against his likely GOP opponent, state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, who raised nearly $1.5 million last year and had $1 million in the bank to start 2026.

His book tour side-hustle comes as several of Shapiro’s would-be rivals for the Democratic nomination in 2028 take donor meetings across the country as they navigate their own reelection bids and start laying the groundwork for White House runs.

Shapiro routinely dismisses talk of 2028 in public, keeping a laser focus on his reelection bid and on his efforts to help Democrats down the ballot.

“No one should be looking past these midterms,” the governor recently told reporters in Washington, D.C., who were peppering him with hypotheticals.

Sources say he is just as disciplined behind closed doors: Shapiro has kept his pitch focused on his leadership in purple Pennsylvania and how Democrats should be centering pocketbook issues in the midterms, while declining to engage with questions about his future beyond 2026, according to two people who attended donor events with Shapiro last year.

“The smartest thing Shapiro and other folks on the ballot in 2026 can do right now is say ‘I’m running for reelection right now and I’m in the middle of the fight.’ [It] makes ‘26 a nice little audition for their eventual 2028 runs,” said Alex Hoffman, a Democratic strategist and donor adviser.

His out-of-state networking is already paying off. Shapiro raked in over $700,000 from prominent donors in Massachusetts alone in 2025, including $260,000 from construction magnate John Fish and $50,000 from telecommunications tycoon Robert Hale. He also hauled in cash from Hollywood bigwigs and tech titans, including $100,000 from Sony film executive Tom Rothman and $200,000 from Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen.

But the governor’s expansive donor pool is also drawing scrutiny. Garrity has called on Shapiro to return over $2 million his campaign has taken over the years from billionaire LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, who is referenced repeatedly in the Jeffrey Epstein files. Hoffman gave $500,000 to Shapiro last year. Shapiro also received $50,000 from New York Giants co-owner Steve Tisch, who is also mentioned in the Epstein files, as is Robert Kraft. Both Hoffman and Tisch have issued statements distancing themselves from the late convict.

“Stacy Garrity should stop playing politics with the Epstein files. Donald Trump is mentioned in the files over 5,000 times. Is she going to ask him to rescind his endorsement?” Shapiro spokesperson Manuel Bonder said in a statement. Bonder declined comment on the governor’s fundraisers.

He'll need to keep building out that network. Shapiro has benefited from what longtime Pennsylvania Democratic strategist Neil Oxman described as “institutional donors” in the state who’ve given to successive Democratic governors. But of “the thousands of people who raise money nationally, he probably knows a fraction of them. He has some [national] recognition, but he’s not Gavin Newsom. He’s not the Clintons.”

Shapiro also won’t be able to use the gobs of money he’s raised for his state campaign account to fund a run for federal office, leaving him at an initial disadvantage against other potential 2028ers who are already squirreling away millions of dollars into federal leadership committees, super PACs and congressional campaign accounts that can be converted when the time comes.

“That’s why sometimes it’s hard to run for office when you have to run for another office,” Oxman said.

A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.

© Photo by Evan Agostini/Invision/AP

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